Your semantics are virtually every one else's facts. I must admit I had tired myself of beating this dead horse, but once again accuracy must be defended and the facts are that Envoy will have to upgrade 19-22 F/O's for the remainder of the year to meet their 205-250 upgrade claim and then for 2017 and the first half of 2018 another 700 plus F/O's will have to upgrade to clean up the F/O list. On top of that, they'll have to hire 900+ just to keep the airline at present size and not contract (read: screeching halt to upgrades) during the same period. extremely Unlikely. As for the flow, that will likely come to a halt starting about June as the Letter T pilots return, the estimate of which varies from about 150 to as many as 400 (presently just under 900 exist), but in any case it will stop the flow for 3 months to as long as the remainder of 2016. The 6 year estimate is more unlikely, then likely.

All these projections are smoke and mirrors by a bad magic act that those in the front row could tell right off the bat. Now the audience farther back is catching on and becoming bored with the show. Soon, the ticket guy out front will be shooing away the curious for their own good. I'm sorry, but I think few are buying your schtick. You're late to that party and it's dried up long ago.

Perhaps if you fire the bunny and flip the black hat back right side up and wear it while reverting to a good song-and-dance routine for entertainment, you might recapture the sleeping audience ?

 

Semantics.

 

Wow, talk about your turnarounds. I think I said something to this
effect a long time ago regarding what happens when Envoy gets truly short of pilots. It was mentioned that things are different this time, AAG does what it says, etc., and I should stay in the NK thread as that is where I work now.

Envoy does have great crews. All of you guys are super qualified and should take the first option you have out of there. Plenty of LCCs would love to have you.

 

Nvm.

...

 

Do you know if Envoy is gonna increase the FO pay anytime soon? Any thoughts on that?

Most of the regionals now offer more than 30$/h first year pay.

 

Nope. The only reason to increase FO pay is to attract new hires. At all levels of Envoy and AAG they are convinced that the flow will attract new hires and thus why pay them more. Besides, pay increases would need to change the contracts and as Doug says... a deal is a deal.
I would expect to see so on bonuses increased again jn the next 6-12 months and then again in a similar time frame.

 

They keep messing with the flow, I don't know how they expect new hires to show up (and they aren't) to keep the grand plan moving ahead.

 

It doesn't seem to work very well. 9 and 6 people in the last 2 classes.

 

Basically this... heard a rumor here at PSA from one of our VPs that the company went to AAG and asked for some leeway in negotiating with the union (read: they wanted to increase pay to attract new hires) and they pretty much heard crickets from AAG on the issue. If one wholly owned gets a more attractive pay package, the other two are going to want something similar. I think it will be a matter of AAG waiting for all 3 of their wholly-owneds to have a hard time staffing before something is done. And even then, I would expect bonuses, not permanent contract improvements.

 

I keep thinking they are kicking the can (one of their specialties) until later this year when they are freed up from constraints regarding the last of their synergy components like SLI, "rightsizing" hubs, pilots PBS, etc. at mainline. This will play directly into what they want/need to do with their regional network, which again IMO involves streamlining, consolidation or even possibly branching out into a different reality to some degree with larger aircraft (possible with the correct chess play).

Until then, it would seem to make little sense in big moves and instead simply a enabling process of band-aiding the operation until THEY are ready to make the moves I suspect are being finalized about several issues. I think some surprises are coming starting in mid Summer into the end of the year.

Just my .02 as always............