I have no idea. I don't think recruitment knows....I really don't think envoy management knows. The new AAG literally changes things monthly. Very few things that are planned long term stay the same for us now days. New hires in the pool were told no 175 in Sept as there is a substantial sim backlog. New hires are waiting around two months before starting the sim.

 

I've been told that the class that started a couple weeks ago did indoc, and then was sent home until 10/31 in order to let the training department try to catch up a bit. That should put them on IOE in December. Hopefully this slowdown lets the department catch up in time for my class in January to have all of the fleet/base options available.

 

Based on the seniority list from mid July

2001-84
No hiring 9/3/01-1/3/04
2004-104
2005-58
2006-106
2007-222
2008-124
No hiring 5/12/08-3/15/10
2010-98
2011-271
2013/current-352

The "824" group that gets to carry their vacation and sick accrual rates and get 50% metered to 30/month comes to an end sometime early summer 2017 and the switches to the protected pilot group which flows at 50% metered to 25/month. That agreement essentially covers pilots hired through 2011. From 2013 onward it comes out to around 15/month, the agreements are posted on the APC profile page if you really want to get into the deep stuff.

If AA hires consistently it'll take:
9 months to cover the 824 agreement (30/mo)
36 months to cover PP agreement (25/mo)
28 months 2013-present (15-10/mo variable based on size)

6 years to flow is in the general ballpark. Attrition at Envoy and random months of no hiring at AA could move those numbers in either direction. Typically the closer a pilot is to flowing the less likely they are to go elsewhere. CA attrition outside of flow is usually single digits per month. CA upgrade seems to be the cutoff where attrition drops.

Zombie apocalypses, unforeseen economic collapses and theories about management stopping the flow altogether could change it even more but good luck predicting those things.

 

But how many do wee need to hire to let all these people flow?
For 30/25 flows a month we need to be hiring like gangbusters.

 

Factual numbers are such a breath of fresh air around here. Thank you.

 

PSA is flowing early 2007. The last 2006's are gone or leaving soon.

 

Any 145 new hires that just finished training? I have a few questions.

 

And your point is?

 

Someone asked a question as to what seniority numbers were flowing at other WO'd. I answered.

What is your problem?

 

There is no problem. Moving along.