New Envoy Information
12-28-2015, 08:06 AM
#641
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Posts: 206
AG, You are throwing out numbers like RW.
How can you say we are going to have X new hires for 2016? Management has stated they want 400 this next year. January should be a half-way decent month for hiring and according to recruitment over in Irving, the Pipeline program is starting to bear fruit.
Will we be in trouble in 2017 if we can't hire? You bet! But we should be trying to stop that situation from even happening and stop driving away every Damn person who is half way interested in working at MQ.
How can you say we are going to have X new hires for 2016? Management has stated they want 400 this next year. January should be a half-way decent month for hiring and according to recruitment over in Irving, the Pipeline program is starting to bear fruit.
Will we be in trouble in 2017 if we can't hire? You bet! But we should be trying to stop that situation from even happening and stop driving away every Damn person who is half way interested in working at MQ.
12-28-2015, 08:12 AM
#642
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 122
Originally Posted by ag386
So Mr. ENVOY CAPTAIN, I believe the idiot you are referring to is yourself if you cannot do simple math and understand more airframes + less pilots = METERED FLOW.
Envoy isn't there yet. They still have a couple hundred bodies to lose. However, if we keep the CRJ's longer as talked about the net airframe loss is only 6 in 2016. With those numbers, we are going to be very close to the min numbers necessary to operate the airline on a daily basis. Please tell me that you aren't one of the idiots who says that Envoy will keep flowing and park planes?
Let me assume the role of a 5th grade schoolteacher and give you a math lesson:
1954 - Current Envoy pilot list
Minus 300 - 2016 flows
Minus 100 - 2016 voluntary resignations/retirements/medicals
= 1554 Total pilots
+ 150 - 2016 New Hires
= 1704 Total pilots
That's 1704 pilots at the end of 2016. For how many planes? Well, if all the CRJ's stay through the end of the year:
CRJ - 35
EMJ 140/145 - 98
E175 - 3 (Now) 24 by Year End
157 Aircraft - We know that about 10 are leaving in 16 for PDT so:
147 Aircraft = 11.6 pilots per plane
That's about the min number needed to operate 147 aircraft.
Bottom line is that new hires HAVE to keep coming in. And the numbers need to be way larger than what we've been getting. About 180 in 2015. I estimated 150 in 2016 due to the hiring environment and things getting tighter in terms of pilots supply.
So the question again is: Do you think Envoy will flow 300 PLUS in 2017 unless they shrink more or start back up the CRJ transfer to PSA in earnest? Sure, it's contractual to get 50% of the classes. That hasn't stopped them before ESPECIALLY when the operation is in jeopardy. Us guys have seen up to 40% of the total pilot cadre on reserve this year. I agree with you in that this number is about to drastically change along with higher value lines because Envoy will have NO CHOICE.
I'm not saying the flow isn't going to keep going. I'm just saying that the BIG numbers we've seen so far will drop drastically as metering begins after the last of the 824 leave.
Enough of your insult hurling. Back up your post with some hard numbers just like I did. Feel free to refute these but have some facts. We are all tired of the pro Envoy BS around here.
Envoy isn't there yet. They still have a couple hundred bodies to lose. However, if we keep the CRJ's longer as talked about the net airframe loss is only 6 in 2016. With those numbers, we are going to be very close to the min numbers necessary to operate the airline on a daily basis. Please tell me that you aren't one of the idiots who says that Envoy will keep flowing and park planes?
Let me assume the role of a 5th grade schoolteacher and give you a math lesson:
1954 - Current Envoy pilot list
Minus 300 - 2016 flows
Minus 100 - 2016 voluntary resignations/retirements/medicals
= 1554 Total pilots
+ 150 - 2016 New Hires
= 1704 Total pilots
That's 1704 pilots at the end of 2016. For how many planes? Well, if all the CRJ's stay through the end of the year:
CRJ - 35
EMJ 140/145 - 98
E175 - 3 (Now) 24 by Year End
157 Aircraft - We know that about 10 are leaving in 16 for PDT so:
147 Aircraft = 11.6 pilots per plane
That's about the min number needed to operate 147 aircraft.
Bottom line is that new hires HAVE to keep coming in. And the numbers need to be way larger than what we've been getting. About 180 in 2015. I estimated 150 in 2016 due to the hiring environment and things getting tighter in terms of pilots supply.
So the question again is: Do you think Envoy will flow 300 PLUS in 2017 unless they shrink more or start back up the CRJ transfer to PSA in earnest? Sure, it's contractual to get 50% of the classes. That hasn't stopped them before ESPECIALLY when the operation is in jeopardy. Us guys have seen up to 40% of the total pilot cadre on reserve this year. I agree with you in that this number is about to drastically change along with higher value lines because Envoy will have NO CHOICE.
I'm not saying the flow isn't going to keep going. I'm just saying that the BIG numbers we've seen so far will drop drastically as metering begins after the last of the 824 leave.
Enough of your insult hurling. Back up your post with some hard numbers just like I did. Feel free to refute these but have some facts. We are all tired of the pro Envoy BS around here.
12-28-2015, 08:13 AM
#643
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 540
Originally Posted by SkyWago
AG, You are throwing out numbers like RW.
How can you say we are going to have X new hires for 2016? Management has stated they want 400 this next year. January should be a half-way decent month for hiring and according to recruitment over in Irving, the Pipeline program is starting to bear fruit.
Will we be in trouble in 2017 if we can't hire? You bet! But we should be trying to stop that situation from even happening and stop driving away every Damn person who is half way interested in working at MQ.
How can you say we are going to have X new hires for 2016? Management has stated they want 400 this next year. January should be a half-way decent month for hiring and according to recruitment over in Irving, the Pipeline program is starting to bear fruit.
Will we be in trouble in 2017 if we can't hire? You bet! But we should be trying to stop that situation from even happening and stop driving away every Damn person who is half way interested in working at MQ.
I'm just trying to refute all of the posts on here that claim Envoy does not need new hires for the plan to work and that 2.5/6 is a reality and AAG isn't AMR, they are doing everything they said they were going to....blah blah blah. I'm doing this by trying to post factual information.
Envoy publicly stated they wanted 600 hires in 2013 and they got less than 175. In 2015, I think they wanted 400 and got 180ish. I'm not sure how many were hired in 2014. It's telling the numbers of new hires for two separate non adjoining years were similar. I'm expecting the same in 2016. Trying to make a "projection" as everyone on here is fond of saying.
12-28-2015, 08:14 AM
#644
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 540
Originally Posted by mr25cents
Everyone that actually works here knows that: 1) we are not keeping all the CRJs for 2016. 2) we are scheduled to park the rest of the 140s after the summer. The 2016 fleet plan was sent to all Envoy pilots. Once again, "weird" that you don't know this, I wonder why.
In the end, the plan is for a net hull loss of 6 in 2016. This includes 175 deliveries.
How about coming back with some numbers of your own if you have a problem with mine?
12-28-2015, 08:26 AM
#645
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 146
As said previously, about 90% of new hires are coming from the Pipeline program, so wouldn't this indicate Envoy will have no problem finding warm bodies hire in 2016? Or are there really not that many pilots ready to flow from instructing to Envoy?
12-28-2015, 08:27 AM
#646
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Posts: 206
You all hate the numbers RW has been throwing out and how the 2.5/5.5/6/6.5 or what ever it is right now is never going to happen due to the "fluff factor". And now you want numbers? I don't give the numbers Ric has tossed around much weight but saying 400 or 100 or 50 actual new hires at this point for '16 when the year hasn't even started yet doesn't mean anything and all that "Figuring" you spent time on could mean jack squat.
AAG told the Rev to go fishing when asking for more money to pay for that new TA and who knows what is gonna happen at some of these other outfits. As you have stated the pilot pool of candidates has all but dried up.
There are way too many What-If's to say what is gonna happen after 2016.
AAG told the Rev to go fishing when asking for more money to pay for that new TA and who knows what is gonna happen at some of these other outfits. As you have stated the pilot pool of candidates has all but dried up.
There are way too many What-If's to say what is gonna happen after 2016.
12-28-2015, 08:34 AM
#647
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Position: EMB 145 CA/FO
Posts: 71
Reading this and having everyone come up with fuzzy math and future projections really makes me think you haven't been in this business long. Will envoy have a flow? Yes. It's part of the business model and keeping pilot cost in line. Will it be fluid and dynamic? Yes. Will in change in your 6 to 12 years to flow. Yes. Please don't be fooled and think someone can project another company's future needs.
That being said. Pick envoy because it's where you want to be. Unfortunately envoy is not a stable regional. Crew bases open and close at a snap of the fingers. They transfer company aircraft to other regionals just as quickly. Reserve love is horrible, and will last for years. Your pay is often wrong so keep an eye on it. They also violate the contact regularly so file grievances. I have won thousands of dollars back but was it worth the hell and stress?
Hopefully envoy can fix the bugs that have pledged this company for the last 3 years and infected the employees you would be working with. This is just my advice. But you have options so interview ask questions, do your homework, and pick a regional corporation you are ok working for 10 years.
Don't plan on staying for 10 years, but pick a place you would be ok at for that time.
Happy hunting
That being said. Pick envoy because it's where you want to be. Unfortunately envoy is not a stable regional. Crew bases open and close at a snap of the fingers. They transfer company aircraft to other regionals just as quickly. Reserve love is horrible, and will last for years. Your pay is often wrong so keep an eye on it. They also violate the contact regularly so file grievances. I have won thousands of dollars back but was it worth the hell and stress?
Hopefully envoy can fix the bugs that have pledged this company for the last 3 years and infected the employees you would be working with. This is just my advice. But you have options so interview ask questions, do your homework, and pick a regional corporation you are ok working for 10 years.
Don't plan on staying for 10 years, but pick a place you would be ok at for that time.
Happy hunting
12-28-2015, 09:18 AM
#648
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: middle seat in the back
Posts: 232
Originally Posted by ag386
I'm all for hiring as many as possible. I'm "throwing numbers out" to try and get as accurate a picture as possible for potentially looking ahead to what is really in store at Envoy. Numbers tell the story. If I'm wrong or you have different information, please post it. I will admit that I'm wrong if someone proves differently with actual numbers. The above is as accurate as I have right now.
I'm just trying to refute all of the posts on here that claim Envoy does not need new hires for the plan to work and that 2.5/6 is a reality and AAG isn't AMR, they are doing everything they said they were going to....blah blah blah. I'm doing this by trying to post factual information.
Envoy publicly stated they wanted 600 hires in 2013 and they got less than 175. In 2015, I think they wanted 400 and got 180ish. I'm not sure how many were hired in 2014. It's telling the numbers of new hires for two separate non adjoining years were similar. I'm expecting the same in 2016. Trying to make a "projection" as everyone on here is fond of saying.
I'm just trying to refute all of the posts on here that claim Envoy does not need new hires for the plan to work and that 2.5/6 is a reality and AAG isn't AMR, they are doing everything they said they were going to....blah blah blah. I'm doing this by trying to post factual information.
Envoy publicly stated they wanted 600 hires in 2013 and they got less than 175. In 2015, I think they wanted 400 and got 180ish. I'm not sure how many were hired in 2014. It's telling the numbers of new hires for two separate non adjoining years were similar. I'm expecting the same in 2016. Trying to make a "projection" as everyone on here is fond of saying.
You state only 180 new hires in 2015, but you fail to mention that probably 100 or more of those have been hired since August. You also estimate (not sure how that’s a hard fact) 150 new hires in 2016. The current estimates for the first two classes in January are 20 each, that’s 26 percent of your estimate in the first month. So there is a pretty significant trend from August to January. Will it hold? Who knows, but projections based on trends hold more water than your guess.
Now let’s look at your numbers.
1954 - Current Envoy pilot list
Minus 300 - 2016 flows
Minus 100 - 2016 voluntary resignations/retirements/medicals
= 1554 Total pilots
+ 150 - 2016 New Hires
= 1704 Total pilots
As for you 11.6 min crew per plane number, I have heard it is generally around 10 per plane, so let’s split the difference to 10.8.
Using your projected pilot numbers and 11.6 min crew that gives us staffing for 146 airplanes.
Using 10.8 min crew, 157 airplanes
Using 10 min crew, 170 airplanes
I have no idea what the correct number is. I’m just comparing what you’ve heard to what I’ve heard.
I’m not sure where you got your fleet projections from (again, not a hard fact) but according to Ric’s letter, we will have 133 airframes at the end of 2016.
So using your min crew numbers we will have 161 extra pilots at year end 2016
Using 10.8, we have 268 extra pilots
Using 10, we have 374 extra pilots
Dang it, We’re stagnate again!
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