You say "throw away", but Parker says "recycle at first year rates".

Like you said, nothing has changed.

 

Six in one. Half a dozen in the other. It's the same thing.

I've been at Envoy for around 2.5 years now and I don't speak the utopian dialect that some on here do.

I can say without a doubt though that any of these numbers management has spit out regarding flow are just wild speculation. As it sits now, 9 to 10 years is my prediction for someone to flow hired today. Even that could seriously change when management here realizes they do need pilots to fly their planes.

 

LOL. Sure.

 

I know I don't necessarily speak in a "I'm in love with Envoy" vernacular as many of you. It's probably because I'm a bit older than your average newbie at ENY and am not as susceptible to brainwashing.

However, what I've stated is true. I've speculated on the flow time sure. However a cold, hard fact for today is the bottom person flowing right now was an August 1999 hire. 16 year flow.

I don't expect Ric to come through but you gotta ask. Where's The Beef?

 

Maybe. What you're describing would be an acquisition of assets with an offer of employment. That would be the worse option (the stick), but instead, I think he'd likely also offer a better alternative (the carrot) IF an agreement is reached and then it would simply be an SLI situation. Acceptance of 12/4 with no grandfathering would seem to me to be at the top of the list. That would make it more likely that more of the senior pilots higher then 12th year scale would to move on to AA and those that wouldn't would all be on a cheaper level playing field, which BTW in the NEC scenario would make for some pretty cheap E-190 captains as many would get the scale raise, but their longevity deduction would more then cancel that out.

It's easy to see the dealer has all the cards and that it's a marked deck, but he's not going to tip over the table to beat you. Just something to consider in deciding whether to put your chips on the table and take a chance.

Do you feel lucky ?

 

A five year flow date, based on growth, can't compare to an X year flow plan based on retirements.

 

Using the context to understand the meaning, I think you meant kaput instead of caput. But I defer to your knowledge of what you meant to say...

 

No it won't be 9+ years to flow and I'll tell you why. Barring any reduculois outside influences such as another 9-11 or 2008 economic collapse, two things that don't really happen back-to- back very often, any individual qualified to fly 121ops in 9 years from now will be hired off the street.
We're looking at all 3 legacy carriers losing 50% of their seniority list in less than 10 years from now. That number alone including the large LCC is about 15+ thousand. That's about equal to all the regional pilots today combined +- a few who will never leave their regional job for x reasons.
Jet blue is already laying the foundation for a 0 to hero program.
Point is, while the flow may have issues as time goes on as of now it's working but no one knows what issues can arise in a few years from now. However, any qualified individual will soon be hired at majors far more easily than those of us who have had to go through this mess. I say in about 5 years flow is not what we see if it today. An FO can and probably will be hired off the street before they ever flow either to AA or any of the other big 3 or the other carrier if their chice.

 

That 16 years is a fact, but just to be clear, that means that in 1999 the flow time was 16 years long. It is a completely separate question to guess what the flow time is in 2015/2016.

Just for the record I think that 2.5/6 is far-fetched, partly because I don't believe they will get the new hires, and partly because I think the industry and this company will look very different in 6 years.

 

Yea, your previous statements concerning your place on the seniority list didn't check out.

Though I suppose if you say it enough people might believe you. Eventually.