I wouldn't take anything management says too seriously. Non-specific statements of vaguely positive futures can mean anything and cost nothing to make. Parker certainly wouldn't get up and state he's going to dissolve Envoy, even if that were true. The present Envoy operation is almost certain to be a part of AAG's future, but what size and what involvement with others is an unanswered question. In a consolidation scenario, if a pilot wants to flow to AA or have that as their back-up, ANY of the three WO's will for future purposes (more then 5 years out) will IMO likely be based on your DOH at any of the present carriers and so one is no worse then the other. IF that is then going to be a constant in this future equation, the question then is, which carrier can get you into the left seat ASAP to boost other options while you wait ?

In a non-consolidation scenario, once Envoy's 824 are gone, the other WO's will have caught up in size and mission to Envoy and Envoy will have contracted to much closer size and mission to them making 3 near-equal WO's. Again, in that case, the flow will likely be modified to provide each WO with equal flow access so as to ensure AAG isn't shooting itself in the foot by weakening on the legs in its three-legged regional feed network.

 

If they do by DOH, half of PDT and 80% of PSA pilots are below the Protected pilots, just because they are hired on or after 2012.

 

In the event of a merger I would expect the flow agreements to play a huge part in SLI. The Pinnacle-Mesaba-Colgan merger used career progression expectations as a major factor in determining how things got mixed together. An Envoy pilot hired before Oct. 2011 has had an unobstructed expectation of flow for quite a long time whereas those at PDT and PSA have only recently been offered such an option. Combine that with the fact that most of PSA's seniority list was hired in the last 18 months, an integration based on either career expectation or just straight DOH would heavily favor Envoy.

 

Good point. IF they consolidate and then IF they do DOH in an SLI. That scenario WOULD favor the more senior Envoy pilots. But absent that scenario where an SLI would be ratio or some other integration method or simply seeking to balance flow among the three WO's for stability and attraction purposes, it would likely be a more equal equation for a new-hire of today at any of the three WO's.

Just my .02............

 

True, but.........

......while Envoy pilots then might capture more flow slots, they have more pilots to move through, whereas those hiring on aboard PSA/Piedmont would move to AA almost as fast do to hiring on to an expanding carrier vs. a contracting one and have a stronger potential to upgrade sooner giving them earlier competitive points for other options.

This is only in a "merger" scenario as well. In an "acquisition" scenario, all bets are off. In a non-consolidation scenario, it would be in AAG's interest to have an even situation in not only flow, but contractual provisions as well, as it is counter-productive to weaken any of their regionals to benefit another.

 

Seems to me that if Envoy were to flow ~30 per month, PSA would flow around ~9, and PDT ~3. This just based on size and seniority. Amirite?

 

Maybe.

Personally, I wouldn't focus on what any one carrier does in a month or even several months. IMO, it's a backward looking evaluation. Envoy is projected to flow 250-300 which averages 21-25 pilots/month. The PSA/Piedmont projections are probably just as assumptive, general and fluid.

 

Well said!
(I don't work for Envoy or Air Wisconsin).

 

Check your numbers aa changed the hiring projection to 700-800 for 2016 meaning flow 350-400 the top of the range would about exaust the 824. So that could be interesting.

 

The info I have was Envoy managements statement of 250-300 flows for 2016 based on AA's numbers of a month ago, even though those projections could imply Envoy gets their maximum 50% or the figures you state. AA's statement was non-specific of what numbers come from where and the phrase IIRC, was that figure was the number of pilots they planned to "bring aboard" (or something to that effect) along with "hope to" (or something to that effect). An unknown number of deferred recalls could impact flows from the other WO's along with streeties significantly.

Feel free to post the exact statement you are assuming will override Envoy management's last projection of 250-300 flows in 2016 made about a month ago though. I'm all for accurate info.