Some of these fish are trying to be the big fish in a little pond. They jumped into a bigger pond to sling gear and lost their left seat soap box. Now they're back like the guys that graduated high school with no future prospects but continue to hang around trying to be the cool older guy impressing the freshmen and sophomores.

Saying "Yes, sir" must be galling.

 

You said it better than me. That was a very good way to describe it.

 

For someone hired right now seniority would be about 1970 most Jr captain is about 1170. The company announced 200 upgrades and 300 flows next year. But then later raised the flow closer to 360-400. So i am assuming that they will need more upgrades. Say 250. And with alot of high time and military newhires recently and a few Sr FO's going to LLC's assume Fo attrition to be 50 next year. That leaves 500 FO's over a year and a half that need to upgrade, die, retire or move on. I'm going to assume after first year that attrition will be only about 10 per year. If the company stops shrinking and has a little growth from planes returning from xjet and tsa management has said. Upgrades should match or exceed flow in 2017. IF that number is 360. That only leaves 130 FO's to upgrade over the first 6 months of 2018. So it is mathematically possible. While it does require AA to continue to hire 60 or more per month and Envoy to stop shrinking it is possible. The question is what will happen to the 145's at xjet and tsa. AAG has an option to move them as they come to heavy check or 2 years which ever is first. The planes started going well over a year ago. But will they move them and where to are un known. But envoy currently has a trained staff of 145 pilots flying less than line guarantee. So it would be possible to add flying without changing staffing.

 

Those numbers sound good. At least as good as they did in 2000 to the Eagle pilots.


I hope I'm wrong but betting on flow agreements in my experience makes as much sense as betting on upgrade due to proposed aircraft orders.

 

If your argument is anything can happen, then yes I agree. Sure, if something awful happens that prevents the majors from hiring even with record retirement numbers, yeah you won't flow. But you also won't be hired off the street, as they aren't hiring.

If your argument is "the flow doesn't work, look at what happened to the guys in 2000," I think that's disingenuous. The flow has always worked, AA just has to hire.

 

After rereading it came across more negative than I meant.

I put in some years at Eagle and have friends that stayed and some that left. Hope the best for all.

 

Fair enough. Betting on anything in this career is a crapshoot. Can't depend on what upgrades, fleet size or flow are now or projected to be in the future.

 

Some people after years of training and tons of money are actually happy when they get their first airline job. Really.

 

Crongrats Man! Don't let the negativity get you down. Its been a long road in the regionals this last decade. Enjoy your trips and your crews.

 

Cujo/Mason? Is that you?