This is my point. Looking at what has happened in the previous three years, I expect the regionals to finally declare war on each other for the remaining bodies available. Anything to keep their crack addiction to dirt cheap labor going.

As to Flames numbers. Even in the best case scenario, it's just way too optimistic. Don't forget who you are dealing with here. AAG. They can and do whatever they choose to fit their needs. But, but they do what they say they are going to, right? Yes, when it fits their purpose they will. Right now as they shrink Envoy, I believe their goal is to sweep out the 400 or so remaing 824 and re-evaluate. If market forces finally create a shortage at Envoy for the amount of airframes they want to fly, they ain't gonna let you flow while airplanes sit idle.

Undefers have till 5/1/16 to make their final decision on returning. While AA has to treat undefers as new hires for flow purposes, it's just going to delay Envoy guys flowing until later in the year. Depending on how many undefers decide to come back, Envoy pilots will be left out in the cold until years end. Then, if it requires too many Envoy bodies at that time, you may see AA work a deal with Envoy ALPA, who will play ball by the way, to spill over some flows required in 2016 into 2017.

All that said, I wouldn't recommend Envoy. Especially if you are trying to flow.

 

This. Exactly this. Just about all regionals are paying $35+/hr now, and the ones that aren't are going to wait until it's too late. Too little, too late.

They will be the casualties. And they will take the innocent victims down with them.

 

I appreciate that, and TBH, I put more weight in your posts than I do for quite a few others here. You seem to post honestly, and with good intent. I can understand how anyone would be frustrated with their company at any given point in their career.

Unfortunately, no one can tell me where the best place to go is. If they could, I would gladly pay for that advice. In addition to that, my crystal ball is OOF, so it is not working either. . At the end of the day, I will take in all I can, roll the dice, and hope for the best with the options I am currently being offered. As with anyone, there are places that aren't interested, places where I already have a CJO, and places I wouldn't want to be.

Please don't take what I say as an attempt to act as if I know more than you do. I know what I don't know; I just try to piece together as much as I can, and "putting it out there" here in APC is a means to get input on what I perceive to be the truth, as another way of validating (or not) what I am learning/understanding.

 

I have no doubt that your entire post was truthful, but a new hire today will not have the same experience at envoy that you had for years at American Eagle. The vast majority of your time was spent under a 16 year contract at regional peforming 95%+ of AA's feed-- that kind of stability doesn't exist anymore. Couple that with new management's philosophy that the pilot is the enemy who must be defeated on a daily basis, and your experiences, while valid and shared by many, are not really applicable anymore.

That being said, we will have movement, which should improve our awful reserve and upgrade times at least somewhat. And the flow will be fantastic for many pilots (how many is a guess).

Even though my opinion of our current management team almost couldn't be any worse, I still might pick envoy over mesa. If you do, pick it because you're gambling on the flow, not because you'll see your family more with envoy vs. mesa. QoL here is not what it used to be.

 

Only if they stop at Panda Express on the way in, ask nicelyand they might share the generals Chicken.....

 

Well, as a Piedmont pilot we wouldn't expect you to. Or are you a disgruntled recent Flowthrough pilot, haven't quite decided yet. At any rate, saying AA will do this or will do that without any actual basis for your position means nothing. Anyone can tell stories and saying, "because it's AA, they can do anything." Doesn't count.

 

Wild, unsubstantiated speculation on "Envoy flowing greater than 360 this year" on your part doesn't count either.

I hope you enjoy the right seat at Envoy because with your seniority, that's where you are going to be for a long, long time.
Enjoy the 40 bucks an hour kid.

 

Whatever he is, he is not an Envoy pilot. Neither are any of his other alter-egos. That much is certain.

 

LOL Nailed it. You're a pretty smart fella.

 

Go to Envoy. Prior121 and I have historically been two of the biggest Mesa cheerleaders on here for the last three years, and we're both telling you to go to Envoy over Mesa now. That should speak volumes to you.

Someone has to end up stuck at the bottom of our list when we're done with the growth and the economy inevitably cycles back downward. By my estimation, anyone hired between now and the end of the EJet deliveries this summer/early Fall is at risk of being in one of those "last classes."

Mesa is a great place to work--for those of us who benefitted from the express train to lineholder/hours/upgrade. I can't in good conscience tell you to come here now, though, because I personally don't think you're going to hold a line/upgrade nearly as fast as people currently on property did. IMHO there's much less risk and much bigger rewards on offer at Envoy--just my two cents...feel free to disagree!