They have stated they plan to flow 30/mo, which with my dumb math is 360 in 2016. ag3xx's 2016 numbers aren't far off base either, should a large number of AA furloughed pilots choose to undefer on the last available round it could conceivably gum things up for flows, reducing the annual flow total. That would only be temporary though, and if they haven't come back yet I doubt a large number plan on doing it at all.

 

Unfortunately, you do not get to pick and choose who comes to YOUR profession, nor for what reasons. Go back and re-read what I have posted. Nowhere did I say I wanted a quick upgrade. I only make mention of hours. As in, I don't want to sit in a crew room for 2+ years, flying 40 hours a month at min guarantee, getting paid, but not building hours.

And I hope you were able to type that "many hard working folks here" with a straight face. At least you didn't say "pilots", you said "folks", which technically makes your statement correct. But you and I both know pilots do not work all that hard. Long perhaps, and frustrating schedules, to be sure. But that was a choice, wasn't it? All of us could opt for a job with regular hours, where you actually DO work hard.

And just so we're clear on the topic of money - while you do not get to dictate to me my motivations, I have been saying for many years that FO wages are terrible, and should be higher. No argument there. But you, and everyone else on these forums who fly for a regional took the job with wages lower than they are today, so don't preach to the new guys, and tell us we are the problem. No sir, the problem with current pay goes WAY back to the legacy pilots, scope and pay decisions, etc., long before us, and even to your era of pilots, who took the job knowing how low the pay was.

FWIW, an E2 in the military makes about $2356 a month before taxes, with about $600 of that untaxed. That's with no college and no flight school debt. Just another option for folks who are chasing the money.

 

Seems like a lot of energy being expended arguing over who gets one pilots eternal soul. But there's a lesson in this. The lesson is that the future supply of regional pilots will become so sparse, one pilot will be a big deal.

Looks like we're just about there.

 

Unfortunately, not quite yet. If we were, all regionals would be paying in excess of $35 per hour.

 

Getting closer...

 

AA undeferrals counts as new hires...we still get 50% of the seats.

 

Look man, do whatever is best for you. I was just trying to offer some advice from a "been there, done that" perspective. I wish you the best in whatever you choose.

 

Letter 12-04, paragraph 3c and Letter 12-03, paragraph 3: "new hire pilots" (what our percentage is based on) mean pilots hired off the street...not undeferring furloughed pilots

 

Just about, but not quite. They are still whistling past the cemetery. When the tsunami really hits, it will be far too late and there will be a lot of grief and casualties. Some of those casualties will be innocent victims of collateral damage.

The only thing that can really delay the wave is an economic or political situation (or combination) that results in this industry entering another period of stagnation resulting in the music stopping for a period of time at the mainline level. Considering the retirements, it would actually be a period of contraction, but the result would be the same for regional pilots.

Nowhere to really go and all day to get there. Considering the present state of geopolitics and other issues, it's a risky time indeed and the industry is overdue for one of its historically solid dips. Perhaps that's one reason some are so desperate to claim any rogue unspoken for soul in the regional wannabe ranks ?

 

Post of the day.