Originally Posted by go skers

This probably fits in better over here and builds on some of the numbers going forward

As it currently stands AAG is allowed a regional fleet of 75% of its mainline narrowbody fleet. In addition, from 2016 onward 40% of AAG mainline narrowbody fleet may include RJ's from 66-76 seats with total count of all RJ's including small and large RJ's must fit within that 75% total.

Assuming the MD-80 fleet is parked, the 757 is reduced down to roughly 25 internationally configured models and all A321 and B738 deliveries are taken plus the 20 E190s in limbo at the end of 2017 you finish with a mainline narrowbody fleet of
A319: 125
A320: 50ish (some early models have been retired)
A321: 220
B738: 305
B757: 25
E190: 20
Total: 720

Taking that final number multiplied by 75% you get an allowed total RJ count of 540 with 288 of those allowed to be between 66-76 seats. Today's RJ count with outstanding orders accounted for include

165: E70 E75 operated between Compass, RAH and Envoy
118: CR9 operated between Mesa and PSA
69: CR7 operated by SKW, PSA and ENY (22 currently count as large RJ)
118: EMB 145 operated by ExpressJet, TSA and ENY
132: CR2 operated by SKW, ExpressJet, Air Wisconsin and PSA
11: DH8-300 operated by PDT (only 300's count toward total)

283 large RJ's if 22 CR7s are reconfigured and 613 total RJs. While I agree that the large RJ fleet is growing there is going to be some serious pain among small RJ operators as AAG removes small RJs to stay within total RJ fleet count. I'll let everyone else speculate where those 60-80 removals come from. AAG's plan is no different than Delta or United in regards to RJs they're just a few years behind.

How the A320NEO and B737MAX play into those numbers or if CR7 and E70 eventually get removed to allow more E75 or CR9 options to be executed is speculation at this point

Originally Posted by Name User

The 20 E190 are going away according to Parker.

Originally Posted by eaglefly

Good info. I don't see Parker violating APA scope, so that will mean small RJ reductions. I think some operators will cease to exist, but that depends on feed contractual issues and the individual carriers ability to attract and retain the primary commodity that is most critical, that being pilots. Ceasing to exist for many may simply mean consolidation as that is the best way to retain that critical commodity vs. kicking them loose only to lose pilots that have no interest in starting at the bottom of another regional, especially an AAG one and most especially if they were captains.

IMO, consolidation requires compromise to achieve effective harmony and those who want to play will have to be WILLING to play. For the AA flow, I think that means once the 824 are finished, the flow essentially becomes a contractual issue more easily modifiable. At present, when considering the size of each of the three WO's, the percentage of flow slots isn't that far off from being equal and I think that will be a component of the future. It will mean compromise though, but if done correctly, will actually provide more predictability for pilots even if the timeline for some may slow to accommodate others. That's what occurred in the past with BizEx and I see a strong probably of history repeating itself. This is speculation though.

Originally Posted by Spoiler

Re: 'the math" and facts.
Fact are historical not projections. With all the collective wisdom here I'm surprised this fact has not been addressed.
Further, verification of projections can ONLY be surmised from the fidelity to past covenants and agreements. AAG is or is not honoring those to date.
If yes then valid projections can be made with the caveat that events may force alteration of planned flow.
If AAG is not giving attention to those agreements when there is a surplus then the projections are no better than the agreements themselves.
What say you?

Originally Posted by boiler07

Do you honestly think he'll consolidate wholly owneds before bringing others in first? I think an air wisconsin acquisition is more likely in the near future than what you described. It makes more sense for him to try to drive all the other regionals out of business, or simply to a weaker point where they can be acquired for cheap. It builds up his wholly owned model, supports his flow baby, and helps insure that AAG has control over the very last of the available regional lift going into the years ahead.

Originally Posted by boiler07

Management's treatment of current flow agreements isn't an accurate predictor of what will happen in the future if it is the sole variable being evaluated.

Originally Posted by eaglefly

Where have I stated one will occur before the other ? "Consolidation" has many forms and paths and outside acquisition is but one method. As for Parker driving "all" the other regionals out of business (or thinking he can) or thinking he can "acquire them for cheap", Delta just proved they are willing to pony up the ca$h to block any monopoly in that respect and you can be sure UAL will too. If you think Parker has all the aces in the deck and can play them at his leisure, you are terribly misguided IMO.

The dynamics of this industry don't cater themselves to any one player and all too frequently all of the players are controlled by the dynamics of the situation, not the other way around. Timing and uncontrollable factors usually dictate each situation and no one has a crystal ball in that respect, including Parker so assuming and planning your future on that is a Fool's errand.

Let's face it, Parker is better at REacting then he is at being PROactive anyway.

Originally Posted by eaglefly

Then what is........optimistic assumption with no foundation ?