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Old 04-03-2019, 07:10 AM
  #411  
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Originally Posted by Erj135dude View Post
I really want all these things to be true, but seems to me that so far it's mostly good thoughts, opinion and expectations rather than facts.

And I say this while strongly considering interviewing with you guys. I guess I want to find and equilibrium between optimistic and realistic.
As I've written before, regional airlines are much like stocks. The ones that are beaten down are often very good buys, but by the time "the street" recommends buying you've often missed the greatest gain.
The hiring at XJT right now is the type of hiring that leads to upgrades. Can't have captains without FO's. Get a bunch of FO's on the property and you can start upgrading senior FO's, especially when you have airframes in the desert that need to be manned. I wouldn't be surprised to see several upgrade classes this year with the upgrade times dropping to 3 years or less. That will probably really result in a stampede back to XJT, but those arriving won't be guaranteed the same upgrade time.
Someone still on property can probably give more insight, however.
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Old 04-03-2019, 07:55 AM
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Originally Posted by SpringLanding View Post
79 on the seniority list for 2019.

48 since Mar 4 class. So averaging 16 per class every week now. If they start 1 class per week starting yesterday, that will bring 64 per month.

For someone on the list right now, that means their relative seniority will grow by 4.4% a month just by growth. If XJT keeps sending 20 per month to UA and 20 to others (retire, or other airlines), you'll move up by 104 spots a month - a relative move of *7% per month*.

To hire 600 as repeatedly stated they will, that means they will need to keep up this pace for the rest of the year - 8 months and change.

If that happens, someone on the bottom of the list now will have a seniority close to 50% by Christmas. Upgrade times will drop through the basement. I doubt anyone hired in March will have to fly weekends or holidays if they don't feel like it.

I know this is pilot math, but if this is even close to what actually happens, this will be one heck of a wave.
Ugh xjt was my number 1 but since I won't be hired for at least a year, may have to go to plan b now...
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Old 04-03-2019, 07:56 AM
  #413  
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Originally Posted by kettlechips View Post
Ugh xjt was my number 1 but since I won't be hired for at least a year, may have to go to plan b now...
A year? Who knows. Interview with several as you get closer.
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:15 AM
  #414  
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Originally Posted by kettlechips View Post
Ugh xjt was my number 1 but since I won't be hired for at least a year, may have to go to plan b now...
Curious. Flight time or military commitment?
Or something else?
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Blackhawk View Post
As I've written before, regional airlines are much like stocks. The ones that are beaten down are often very good buys, but by the time "the street" recommends buying you've often missed the greatest gain.
The hiring at XJT right now is the type of hiring that leads to upgrades. Can't have captains without FO's. Get a bunch of FO's on the property and you can start upgrading senior FO's, especially when you have airframes in the desert that need to be manned. I wouldn't be surprised to see several upgrade classes this year with the upgrade times dropping to 3 years or less. That will probably really result in a stampede back to XJT, but those arriving won't be guaranteed the same upgrade time.
Someone still on property can probably give more insight, however.
So senior FOs will benefit from this hiring wave, but new hires might not, right?
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:23 AM
  #416  
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Originally Posted by PontiusPilot View Post
What would convince you? People are beating you to seniority in the meantime.

Class dates announced:
4 classes in April
3 classes in May
4 classes in June
Yeah I know seniority is everything, but doesn't make the decision easier haha.

I have a class with Skywest on June 3rd. June 4th with XJT huh?
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by pangolin View Post
Seniority is key.

Wishing I chose an earlier class date. Having a almost 100 in front of me is hurting my ADM process
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:25 AM
  #418  
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Could someone post a screenshot of a typical trip?. I was able to see skywest and envoy pairings and would like to include expressjet in the comparison. PMs welcome of course
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Erj135dude View Post
Could someone post a screenshot of a typical trip?. I was able to see skywest and envoy pairings and would like to include expressjet in the comparison. PMs welcome of course
There really isn't a "typical trip." A 4 day could be 12 hours of block or 30. Most 4 day trips lately are in the 18 to 22 hour range. Average trip credit appears to be increasing since March by my subjective view. A couple of months ago 4 day trips were around 17 hours on average. Now they seem to be 20 to 22. Again, my subjective view of them.

Routes and overnights vary greatly. Some are pure pairings where you go in and out of your domicile hub. Some leave your hub and don't return until the last leg. Some will touch 2 or more United hubs in one 4 day. Some have international, some don't. You could see Canada and Mexico in one 4 day trip. In other words, they vary greatly.

If I had to rank our hubs for size and variety, I would say:
1. Houston
2. Chicago
3. Newark
4. Cleveland
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Erj135dude View Post
So senior FOs will benefit from this hiring wave, but new hires might not, right?
Depends. There is the CPP which pretty much guarantees that there will be some movement at the top end of the list. Also, as pointed out, there are still a bunch of -145’s parked in the desert that need to be manned. Finally, how much additional flying will UAL throw them, especially if XJT shows thy can man it.
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