Originally Posted by Excargodog

I actually don't have a dog in this particular fight other than a philosophical one. But in general terms, no I think you are wrong, simply from basic queuing theory.

Right now XJT has inadequate crew to staff their existing jets and flying and they are about to get MORE jets and MORE flying.

A newbie at XJT is therefore likely to spend relatively little time on reserve and then be flying his or her butt off shortly after completing IOE. That is NOT the case at a considerable number of other regionals. Newbie's at many regional's ARE in reserve for prolonged periods of time and worse yet get very little flying while on reserve, little enough in many cases that they have trouble making consolidation time within the prescribed limits in some cases.

On another thread an Endeavor FO was describing his first year. Economically he did well, at least by Regional standards, but his total logged hours for the whole year was 200, albeit some of that training delays.

The point is that before you can even LEGALLY upgrade you need 1000 hours. The issue is how quick can you get those hours as well as how much seniority you need to upgrade.

We are heading into a time of unparalleled mandatory retirements at the majors with simultaneous pilot shortages in the military. And you are correct that ULCCs and ACMI are taking people - even with no PIC at all.

There is going to be movement in all the regional's because of this hiring wave, but I would maintain that for the newbie TODAY the smartest thing they can do is hire on where they are going to really fly you, GET YOUR HOURS, and move on. If you can live in base and fly for XJT, I would certainly prefer it over places that have better contracts and better pay (like Endeavor of Republic) but are going to get you to the majors several years later. Short term pain for long term gain. It's as simple as that.

Originally Posted by Erj135dude

Where will all those new hires will be based?. And what frames are they getting assigned

Originally Posted by Longhornmaniac8

I have no interest in getting involved in this **** storm, but you say XJT has better prospects right now than YX in terms of getting time and moving on.

Aren't their (XJT) upgrade times like 6 years right now? I don't remotely doubt they will come down IF they can get more staffing for their new planes, but it seems exceedingly unlikely they'll drop below 3-4 years in the short-medium term. That said, I don't know a whole lot about what the roster looks like at XJT (just what I've gleaned from on here).

That is a pretty crappy prospect for a new hire, when they could go just about anywhere else and be looking at an LCC/major job in that time.

Originally Posted by WtsPltsGts

It’s under 4 now for upgrades will be 3 or less by end of the year. These clowns are from Republic lol the step child of the big 3 that none of them want much to do with and are forced at this point to tolerate since they had to be saved from being bankrupt (nice history), they have little to no prospects or relationships with majors for moving on. I know for a fact that Delta prefers not to have them and would like to get rid of them as soon as they can, wont be soon enough unfortunately. It explains why these losers keep wetting their pants over all the positives at XJT, they are regional lifers (permanent bottom feeders) but clearly too stupid to know it.

Originally Posted by stabapch

HAHAH wtf are you on, please pass it along though!!

2nd largest regional since 2000 under the same guy, number 1 in performance for the last 3 years and a CBA that spits on XJT. Delta prefers not to have republic? That’s interesting because YX was just awarded more flying from DL and DL is consulting YX’s flight ops about how they perform so well at select places... Mainline asking advice from a regional! Endeavor is actually trending downward and word on the street is YX will be taking their flying as well in the NE. The only mainline partner that’s not showing a positive interest in YX is UAL, but it shows they don’t give a rats ass about any regional. BUT WAIT! YX is picking up all of XJets flying so who’s the real winner? Not Xjet or UAL!

Good luck with that consolidation, hopefully you’ll still have access to a flight deck.

Originally Posted by stabapch

I would be careful with advice like this though. There’s a recession looming, multiple signs pointing towards this. For someone who is fresh in the 121 world they’re looking at 5-6 years on average at a regional before a major even considers them, unless they’re current military or have other high points on their resume. 5 to 6 years is A LOT of time to risk in the regional industry, things can change overnight and it’s happened before. That being said I would base my choice off of where I wouldn’t mind staying OR where it’s pretty certain I’ll still have a job after an economic collapse. YX and OO aren’t going anywhere.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but if you truly believe there is a recession looming, where do you want to be- an understaffed regional with an excess of flying and no reserves or an overstaffed regional with FOS up the ying-yang not flying?

The understaffed regional is going to find its flying cut back and it now becomes fully staffed. The overstaffed regional cuts back its flying and captains become FOs and the FOs become furloughed.

The other issue is the retirement wave. That’s related to the actual ages of the individuals hitting 65, which ISN’T GOING TO CHANGE if there is a recession or not.

You are entitled to your opinion but don’t think for a minute that going to YX or OO doesn’t entail risk because it does. It’s OPPORTUNITY RISK.

What is opportunity risk? definition and meaning - BusinessDictionary.com

You can invest your 401k in US Savings Bonds if you desire and you are unlikely to lose money (except perhaps in constant year dollars if there’s enough inflation) but I’ll keep mine in a well diversified stock portfolio. Given enough time I’ll do far better than you. And your assessment of “a recession looming” is no different than trying to time the market. Good luck with that, it doesn’t work for very many people.

Originally Posted by ICUROOK

lol, with this logic you must have been top of your class in business school

Originally Posted by Excargodog

No, but I was in the top 10%.

But answer this; right now Delta has these mandatory retirements listed:

2019: 448
2020: 549
2021: 751

How many of those people AREN’T going to turn 65 if there is a recession?

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but if you truly believe there is a recession looming, where do you want to be- an understaffed regional with an excess of flying and no reserves or an overstaffed regional with FOS up the ying-yang not flying?

The understaffed regional is going to find its flying cut back and it now becomes fully staffed. The overstaffed regional cuts back its flying and captains become FOs and the FOs become furloughed.

The other issue is the retirement wave. That’s related to the actual ages of the individuals hitting 65, which ISN’T GOING TO CHANGE if there is a recession or not.

You are entitled to your opinion but don’t think for a minute that going to YX or OO doesn’t entail risk because it does. It’s OPPORTUNITY RISK.

What is opportunity risk? definition and meaning - BusinessDictionary.com

You can invest your 401k in US Savings Bonds if you desire and you are unlikely to lose money (except perhaps in constant year dollars if there’s enough inflation) but I’ll keep mine in a well diversified stock portfolio. Given enough time I’ll do far better than you. And your assessment of “a recession looming” is no different than trying to time the market. Good luck with that, it doesn’t work for very many people.