63 cancels - 50 for crew
03-23-2019 | 07:11 AM
#161
On Reserve
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 105
Likes: 3
Not sure why this is turning into a YX circle jerk but they cancelled these flights 2 weeks ago. We were given too many block hours bc we are losing 20+ a month to United and losing the 200 flying. Glad we seem like a threat to you guys though.
03-23-2019 | 07:31 AM
#162
Porco Rosso
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 2,522
Likes: 0
03-23-2019 | 07:35 AM
#163
Banned
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 215
Likes: 0
03-23-2019 | 07:36 AM
#164
Line Holder
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 866
Likes: 37
From: Guppy
I actually don't have a dog in this particular fight other than a philosophical one. But in general terms, no I think you are wrong, simply from basic queuing theory.
Right now XJT has inadequate crew to staff their existing jets and flying and they are about to get MORE jets and MORE flying.
A newbie at XJT is therefore likely to spend relatively little time on reserve and then be flying his or her butt off shortly after completing IOE. That is NOT the case at a considerable number of other regionals. Newbie's at many regional's ARE in reserve for prolonged periods of time and worse yet get very little flying while on reserve, little enough in many cases that they have trouble making consolidation time within the prescribed limits in some cases.
On another thread an Endeavor FO was describing his first year. Economically he did well, at least by Regional standards, but his total logged hours for the whole year was 200, albeit some of that training delays.
The point is that before you can even LEGALLY upgrade you need 1000 hours. The issue is how quick can you get those hours as well as how much seniority you need to upgrade.
We are heading into a time of unparalleled mandatory retirements at the majors with simultaneous pilot shortages in the military. And you are correct that ULCCs and ACMI are taking people - even with no PIC at all.
There is going to be movement in all the regional's because of this hiring wave, but I would maintain that for the newbie TODAY the smartest thing they can do is hire on where they are going to really fly you, GET YOUR HOURS, and move on. If you can live in base and fly for XJT, I would certainly prefer it over places that have better contracts and better pay (like Endeavor of Republic) but are going to get you to the majors several years later. Short term pain for long term gain. It's as simple as that.
Right now XJT has inadequate crew to staff their existing jets and flying and they are about to get MORE jets and MORE flying.
A newbie at XJT is therefore likely to spend relatively little time on reserve and then be flying his or her butt off shortly after completing IOE. That is NOT the case at a considerable number of other regionals. Newbie's at many regional's ARE in reserve for prolonged periods of time and worse yet get very little flying while on reserve, little enough in many cases that they have trouble making consolidation time within the prescribed limits in some cases.
On another thread an Endeavor FO was describing his first year. Economically he did well, at least by Regional standards, but his total logged hours for the whole year was 200, albeit some of that training delays.
The point is that before you can even LEGALLY upgrade you need 1000 hours. The issue is how quick can you get those hours as well as how much seniority you need to upgrade.
We are heading into a time of unparalleled mandatory retirements at the majors with simultaneous pilot shortages in the military. And you are correct that ULCCs and ACMI are taking people - even with no PIC at all.
There is going to be movement in all the regional's because of this hiring wave, but I would maintain that for the newbie TODAY the smartest thing they can do is hire on where they are going to really fly you, GET YOUR HOURS, and move on. If you can live in base and fly for XJT, I would certainly prefer it over places that have better contracts and better pay (like Endeavor of Republic) but are going to get you to the majors several years later. Short term pain for long term gain. It's as simple as that.
You are absolutely correct about the long reserve times and how that can relate to the 1000 hours. In some cases, I think that can absolutely move the needle one way or another. Even at airlines like 9E which are purported to have reserve times of close to a year, let's say flying only 20 hours a month on reserve, that's still 240 hours. Year two you hold a line, and you only need to average about 65 hours flight time per month to get your 1000. For someone motivated to do so for an available upgrade, that's not too difficult.
Point being, that's a fairly extreme example, but flying 1000 hours is still totally doable in a 2 year upgrade regime. At my airline (YX) reserve times are 2-4 months, and from what I've been able to gather, you're flying more like 30-40 hours per month. If you incorporate the training delay, which sadly for me will finish at right around 6 months (though others in my class will finish at 5, and a new hire now will have a significantly reduced delay), you're looking at 8-10 months of no flying + reserve. I still expect to be able get my 1000 hours by the time I go for upgrade (which is currently 23 months from DOH to award and 26 months to beginning of class). That requires the same ~65 hours per month for a lineholder. Obviously that gets shifted forward/fewer monthly hours required if you shorten the training profile as someone starting training now will experience.
Thankfully for our friends at XJ, it sounds like upgrades are farther along in their dropping than I realized. If they can get to the magic 2 year mark, which seems plenty doable given the numbers provided upthread, it makes them a perfectly good option.
I maintain my belief that certain regionals are more stable than others and those would be more likely to survive the next round of consolidation. That could be brought on by a recession or other industry forces. Six months ago, I would've not put XJ in that group and actively steered some people away from it. Now, I just told one of my friends to apply there since things definitely seem to be trending up. I don't think I would put them in the same tier of stability as OO, YX, or Envoy/Endeavor, and of course in this industry nothing is 100% stable (far from it). But if you asked me which regionals are most vulnerable from a financial/operational perspective, I would probably no longer put XJ in that group. That's great news for the many fine people there, and I wish them nothing but the best.
It remains to be seen if XJ can get their staffing up to where it needs to be. You're certainly correct that you can do as much flying there as you want, but I don't think that would manifest itself into quicker career progression vis-a-vis, say, OO or YX, even once XJ's upgrade time falls to about 2 years. All three offer in the ballpark of 2 year upgrades, and a motivated pilot shouldn't have any issue with meeting the 1000/2500 hours (exceptions for those coming in with an R-ATP) at any of the three as things are right now.
Going to XJ is a bit of a high risk, high reward prospect right now. You can hold a line quickly and if things do continue upward, could find yourself in a great spot to fly a lot, upgrade at a reasonable time, and, as you say, get in, get your time, and get out.
On the flip side, if they're not able to sustain the net hiring numbers they need, their operational metrics will continue to be poor, leaving them more vulnerable to consolidation, United ownership or not. Certainly a common theme is that United will happily play its regionals off of one another. While I definitely feel better about XJ after getting out from under OO, I'm still somewhat wary of their place in the regional world in a macro sense. I hope they can prove me wrong.
03-23-2019 | 07:45 AM
#165
Line Holder
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 866
Likes: 37
From: Guppy
That's good news. Thanks for the update. So basically right now things are at about a 5 year upgrade, but over the next 6-12 months it should drop precipitously down to 2-3 years, just depending on how the net hiring goes.
03-23-2019 | 07:54 AM
#166
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 4,083
Likes: 0
From: CRJ9 CA
I agree with your premise 100%, I guess we just fundamentally see things a bit differently. Moreover, I also have no dog in the fight, and unlike others in this thread, I certainly don't actively relish in seeing other pilot groups struggle through tough times. Sadly, there's a lot of vitriol coming from both sides here and elsewhere.
You are absolutely correct about the long reserve times and how that can relate to the 1000 hours. In some cases, I think that can absolutely move the needle one way or another. Even at airlines like 9E which are purported to have reserve times of close to a year, let's say flying only 20 hours a month on reserve, that's still 240 hours. Year two you hold a line, and you only need to average about 65 hours flight time per month to get your 1000. For someone motivated to do so for an available upgrade, that's not too difficult.
Point being, that's a fairly extreme example, but flying 1000 hours is still totally doable in a 2 year upgrade regime. At my airline (YX) reserve times are 2-4 months, and from what I've been able to gather, you're flying more like 30-40 hours per month. If you incorporate the training delay, which sadly for me will finish at right around 6 months (though others in my class will finish at 5, and a new hire now will have a significantly reduced delay), you're looking at 8-10 months of no flying + reserve. I still expect to be able get my 1000 hours by the time I go for upgrade (which is currently 23 months from DOH to award and 26 months to beginning of class). That requires the same ~65 hours per month for a lineholder. Obviously that gets shifted forward/fewer monthly hours required if you shorten the training profile as someone starting training now will experience.
Thankfully for our friends at XJ, it sounds like upgrades are farther along in their dropping than I realized. If they can get to the magic 2 year mark, which seems plenty doable given the numbers provided upthread, it makes them a perfectly good option.
I maintain my belief that certain regionals are more stable than others and those would be more likely to survive the next round of consolidation. That could be brought on by a recession or other industry forces. Six months ago, I would've not put XJ in that group and actively steered some people away from it. Now, I just told one of my friends to apply there since things definitely seem to be trending up. I don't think I would put them in the same tier of stability as OO, YX, or Envoy/Endeavor, and of course in this industry nothing is 100% stable (far from it). But if you asked me which regionals are most vulnerable from a financial/operational perspective, I would probably no longer put XJ in that group. That's great news for the many fine people there, and I wish them nothing but the best.
It remains to be seen if XJ can get their staffing up to where it needs to be. You're certainly correct that you can do as much flying there as you want, but I don't think that would manifest itself into quicker career progression vis-a-vis, say, OO or YX, even once XJ's upgrade time falls to about 2 years. All three offer in the ballpark of 2 year upgrades, and a motivated pilot shouldn't have any issue with meeting the 1000/2500 hours (exceptions for those coming in with an R-ATP) at any of the three as things are right now.
Going to XJ is a bit of a high risk, high reward prospect right now. You can hold a line quickly and if things do continue upward, could find yourself in a great spot to fly a lot, upgrade at a reasonable time, and, as you say, get in, get your time, and get out.
On the flip side, if they're not able to sustain the net hiring numbers they need, their operational metrics will continue to be poor, leaving them more vulnerable to consolidation, United ownership or not. Certainly a common theme is that United will happily play its regionals off of one another. While I definitely feel better about XJ after getting out from under OO, I'm still somewhat wary of their place in the regional world in a macro sense. I hope they can prove me wrong.
You are absolutely correct about the long reserve times and how that can relate to the 1000 hours. In some cases, I think that can absolutely move the needle one way or another. Even at airlines like 9E which are purported to have reserve times of close to a year, let's say flying only 20 hours a month on reserve, that's still 240 hours. Year two you hold a line, and you only need to average about 65 hours flight time per month to get your 1000. For someone motivated to do so for an available upgrade, that's not too difficult.
Point being, that's a fairly extreme example, but flying 1000 hours is still totally doable in a 2 year upgrade regime. At my airline (YX) reserve times are 2-4 months, and from what I've been able to gather, you're flying more like 30-40 hours per month. If you incorporate the training delay, which sadly for me will finish at right around 6 months (though others in my class will finish at 5, and a new hire now will have a significantly reduced delay), you're looking at 8-10 months of no flying + reserve. I still expect to be able get my 1000 hours by the time I go for upgrade (which is currently 23 months from DOH to award and 26 months to beginning of class). That requires the same ~65 hours per month for a lineholder. Obviously that gets shifted forward/fewer monthly hours required if you shorten the training profile as someone starting training now will experience.
Thankfully for our friends at XJ, it sounds like upgrades are farther along in their dropping than I realized. If they can get to the magic 2 year mark, which seems plenty doable given the numbers provided upthread, it makes them a perfectly good option.
I maintain my belief that certain regionals are more stable than others and those would be more likely to survive the next round of consolidation. That could be brought on by a recession or other industry forces. Six months ago, I would've not put XJ in that group and actively steered some people away from it. Now, I just told one of my friends to apply there since things definitely seem to be trending up. I don't think I would put them in the same tier of stability as OO, YX, or Envoy/Endeavor, and of course in this industry nothing is 100% stable (far from it). But if you asked me which regionals are most vulnerable from a financial/operational perspective, I would probably no longer put XJ in that group. That's great news for the many fine people there, and I wish them nothing but the best.
It remains to be seen if XJ can get their staffing up to where it needs to be. You're certainly correct that you can do as much flying there as you want, but I don't think that would manifest itself into quicker career progression vis-a-vis, say, OO or YX, even once XJ's upgrade time falls to about 2 years. All three offer in the ballpark of 2 year upgrades, and a motivated pilot shouldn't have any issue with meeting the 1000/2500 hours (exceptions for those coming in with an R-ATP) at any of the three as things are right now.
Going to XJ is a bit of a high risk, high reward prospect right now. You can hold a line quickly and if things do continue upward, could find yourself in a great spot to fly a lot, upgrade at a reasonable time, and, as you say, get in, get your time, and get out.
On the flip side, if they're not able to sustain the net hiring numbers they need, their operational metrics will continue to be poor, leaving them more vulnerable to consolidation, United ownership or not. Certainly a common theme is that United will happily play its regionals off of one another. While I definitely feel better about XJ after getting out from under OO, I'm still somewhat wary of their place in the regional world in a macro sense. I hope they can prove me wrong.
03-23-2019 | 07:56 AM
#167
Porco Rosso
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 2,522
Likes: 0
If they ever figure out how many extra planes UA should get for each LGA slot that AA or DL gets, then good luck with that.
03-23-2019 | 07:59 AM
#169
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 319
Likes: 0
From: Light Chop Observer
Edit: I've actually recommended people to go to XJT, I think their future is bright. Just don't sling mud and puff out your chest and claim you're the hottest beast in town because of it.
03-23-2019 | 07:59 AM
#170
Banned
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 873
Likes: 0
Pilot cancellations gives the pilot group more leverage. UAL will increase compensation or a straight flow. I expect 200 maybe 300% overtime pay to be normal this summer. How much overtime do Republic pilots get? XJT pilots get 150 and now 200% pay everyday you fly on a day off. More pilot cancellations will help us make more money (keep it going United!).
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
