63 cancels - 50 for crew
03-22-2019 | 06:39 PM
#142
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2018
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The three majors retirements next 10 years:
AA - 8,304 pilots
DL - 6,483 pilots
UA - 5,160 pilots
Total of 19,947 pilots retiring from the big 3 in the next 10 years. And that's just mandatory age 65. Add in the lost medicals, deaths, and early retirements.
To put this into perspective, the number of total pilots at 8 of the largest regionals is about 15,200.
AA - 8,304 pilots
DL - 6,483 pilots
UA - 5,160 pilots
Total of 19,947 pilots retiring from the big 3 in the next 10 years. And that's just mandatory age 65. Add in the lost medicals, deaths, and early retirements.
To put this into perspective, the number of total pilots at 8 of the largest regionals is about 15,200.
03-22-2019 | 06:40 PM
#143
Eject! Eject!!
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 148
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From: Flyin' high
03-22-2019 | 07:06 PM
#144
Banned
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Posts: 408
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Okay, I at least see what data you're looking at.
I'm definitely no expert on the auto loan market.
But, that's really a pretty small picture of the whole market...even the 'debt' portion of it.
The delinquency rates are the highest with those that have the worst credit scores...pretty much what you'd expect.
There was also a record amount of auto loan debt accumulated last year....so, that data kind of makes sense.
Also, the delinquency rate is higher on student loans...so, why wouldn't you be concerned about that one?
Those same "experts" don't think this auto loan data points toward a recession....just sayin' - their analysis, not mine.
I'm definitely no expert on the auto loan market.
But, that's really a pretty small picture of the whole market...even the 'debt' portion of it.
The delinquency rates are the highest with those that have the worst credit scores...pretty much what you'd expect.
There was also a record amount of auto loan debt accumulated last year....so, that data kind of makes sense.
Also, the delinquency rate is higher on student loans...so, why wouldn't you be concerned about that one?
Those same "experts" don't think this auto loan data points toward a recession....just sayin' - their analysis, not mine.
Why is auto loan delinquency significant over student loan delinquency? Well let me ask you this. Can you live without a vehicle or will it be a struggle? A high majority of people cannot. So when statistics show there’s a record amount of people over 3 months delinquent on something they cannot live without, one could only guess they’re unable to pay other debts (student loans, CC’s, other amenities, etc.). That draws a connection that people aren’t making enough to afford a basic life style. None of this is my hypothesis, but rather the guys that do this for a living. They did predict the housing collapse.
03-22-2019 | 07:29 PM
#145
Banned
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 408
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Current performance and reliability over the past few years. No other carrier can compete with YX in the NE (the most challenging market) and unfortunately DL in particular loves this. If YX had better customer service numbers, we would win a ton of “western” DL flying over OO. We keep taking on new flying and services to smaller regions for DL and AA that no other regional is “capable of operating out of” according to mainline. AA is continually trying to push more and more Central and South American flying on us but the FAA keeps denying it.
03-22-2019 | 07:51 PM
#146
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Posts: 408
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There are recessions and there are RECESSIONS. 2008 was a RECESSION. And if you actually have the ability to predict the market your talents are wasted on aviation, go become a day trader.
But you point out the other part of what I was saying. If you are an overworked junior FO in a place that has more flying than it can handle (like ExpressJet currently has) you are less likely to be furloughed than you are if you are one of the multitude of FOs on reserve at Skywest or Republic. A twenty percent cutback in flying is scarcely noticeable if you can only handle 75% of your current business anyway. If your the plug for a 4000 pilot group, you will be furloughed.
And as for who will survive and who won’t, survival isn’t strictly a function of size. Republic was in bankruptcy not too long ago (Feb 2016- May 2017). And that WASN’T during a recession.
You are correct in saying that airlines have more volatility than other sectors of the economy and if you can’t handle volatility avoiding airlines altogether would not be unreasonable. But if you ARE going to be an airline pilot, the volatility is a given. It shouldn’t stop you from going where the opportunity is greatest.
But you point out the other part of what I was saying. If you are an overworked junior FO in a place that has more flying than it can handle (like ExpressJet currently has) you are less likely to be furloughed than you are if you are one of the multitude of FOs on reserve at Skywest or Republic. A twenty percent cutback in flying is scarcely noticeable if you can only handle 75% of your current business anyway. If your the plug for a 4000 pilot group, you will be furloughed.
And as for who will survive and who won’t, survival isn’t strictly a function of size. Republic was in bankruptcy not too long ago (Feb 2016- May 2017). And that WASN’T during a recession.
You are correct in saying that airlines have more volatility than other sectors of the economy and if you can’t handle volatility avoiding airlines altogether would not be unreasonable. But if you ARE going to be an airline pilot, the volatility is a given. It shouldn’t stop you from going where the opportunity is greatest.
There’s better and more secure stepping stones out there than ExpressJet.
03-22-2019 | 07:59 PM
#147
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,261
Likes: 259
Have you ever wondered why Republic was never at risk during BK? Not a single FA was affected! There were memos that came out well before stating how the BK wouldn’t negatively affect the company and it was “strategic” in nature and it sure was. The guy at the helm may have treated his employees like **** (find me a CEO that doesn’t) but he certainly knows business. The point is if a recession hits, YX will be standing and I can’t say that about others. Reserve times are around 3 months across all junior domiciles with upgrades almost under 2 years.
There’s better and more secure stepping stones out there than ExpressJet.
There’s better and more secure stepping stones out there than ExpressJet.
03-22-2019 | 08:12 PM
#148
Banned
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 408
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The fact that the bankruptcy was widely understood th be bogus and merely a way of getting out of unfavorable contracts notwithstanding, playing fast and loose with bankruptcy law does not make you an astute businessman. And it’s not a trick you will get away with twice.
03-22-2019 | 08:31 PM
#149
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,261
Likes: 259
That’s irrelevant. Those parties whose contracts were nullified by the bankruptcy know better. They are unlikely to make the mistake of trusting Republic to comply with its contractual duties again any time soon.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...able/81035522/
03-22-2019 | 09:19 PM
#150
Eject! Eject!!
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 148
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From: Flyin' high
Got a dozen articles.... SOME of which mentioned the auto loan thing...
Maybe you read the headlines, but not the articles?
NONE of the economists quoted in those articles actually predicted a recession, based on the auto loan delinquency thing.
Most of them just said it's one indication of "not all is quite as rosy" with the full-employment current economy.
But, whatever.
I am definitely no pro on calling economic ups and downs....or my boat would be a lot bigger...and I'd be living on it!!
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