Yes and no. It’s a pure model of exponential/geometric growth in actual action right now. When the growth factor equals one it means that new cases equal the previous day’s new cases. This is the inflection point. If you’ve taken calculus this term will be recognizable as the point where the derivative changes magnitude. Anyways, the leveling off and petering is the logarithmic inverse of the curve, or the logistic growth.

The current shelter-in-place, social distancing, shutting down of events, etc. are what are keeping the growth factor at the 1.15-1.25 area. Hence the drastic shutdown.

The big fear is if we ignore the recommendations and go gallivanting around we will see the exponential growth factor increase. It is assumed we do not have the current medical infrastructure to deal with that. In Italy, they’re triaging based off of age and then years of usefulness after recovery.

It is like juggling. We can definitely learn to juggle a few balls, but what happens when we are thrown a thousand at once? We’re bound to drop many of them. That is what is happening in Italy right now but with patients needing medical resources. The ones who can’t get help are...

If you want you can find videos online right now of Italy. It’s terrifying. The UK is showing the same exact rate of infection as Italy, but just 14 days behind.

Right now we want to see that growth factor go to 1 because that is the point where the new cases are now equal to the previous days cases. It means the outbreak is slowing down as the virus is now interacting with equal amounts of people who have yet to be infected and who have already been infected. Once the growth factor equals zero the outbreak is over, from what I understand. We can accelerate it to zero with vaccines.

If you have a chance, read the reports that are coming from the frontlines of the medical industry. It’s not the flu or pneumonia: they’re talking about people choking on their blood that are in the early 40s. Do your own research if you can cause man I’d like to think I’m just overreacting.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a...young-patients

 

Yes, do your own research from actual sources.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...ate-estimates/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

 

Thanks for the attachments. That paper in Nature is interesting. I interpret it as separating the fatality risks within age groups. For me, it looks like I would be modeled into the sCFR of 0.8%. However, what is nuts is that that data is from only the first month in Wuhan and built around 8 separate constraints. Looks like the big variables are hospital preparedness vs hospital surging, as written in the last few paragraphs. Also, the intervention effectiveness looks to be just total statistical noise: 50% +/- 25% on all baseline models. It is hopeful that it acknowledges that there may be hope for further developed countries.

I've been reading the WHO situation reports to follow it. It's the only place I feel I can turn away from to avoid the media outlets, whom I think are doing a terrible job of reporting the news.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

Looks like we just doubled our deaths over night in the USA. If it follows the Nature article, it looks like a 20 day +/- 4 day interval from time of symptoms to time of death for those that succumb.

Anyways, it'll be good for decision-making when we, as a people, can get a handle on how many people are actually infected but OK. The CDC, WHO, and even that paper all acknowledge that all models are skewed at the moment. Well, I'll stop. Stay safe.

 

Looks like the reduction of 175 CA of 30 will displace folk on the 145 after the boy award is given. Anyone want to chime in on this?

 

interesting

 

and taxpayers trillions...

 

which will help save society at large, not just us. Not to mention.....I pay taxes. A lot of them. If the “average Joe” is upset about taxes saving my job, he should think about how many of MY tax dollars go into the pot each year.

 

Ditto, I see about 50% of my gross pay. Won't lose any sleep over some aid or even unemployment bennies if it comes to that.

 

Same (filler/space) same

 

C5 is furloughing. It's only a matter of time until it hits here.