You sir are the totd. Congrats. When that 9 year FO went to ExpressJet, it was the place to be. No one can predict what happens in this industry.

Probably a wash though because his numbers also assumed every regional pilot wants to move on. There are a lot of regional lifers.

I was not saying that every regional pilot is going to the majors in 4 years, just that there will be about 20,000 hired at the majors/lcc's in the next 4 years, and there are less than 20,000 regional pilots.

Other people made that leap. Not me. I know there are lifers at the regionals, and there are those that the majors will not hire.
But it does show that there will be a ton of movement. If you are ready, have a degree, have 121 PIC time, and a decent record, you will be able to move on.

Don't forget that many of the flows right now from the regionals to mainline are guys in their late 50's and early 60's (At least on the AA/WO side of things). According to their message board, Envoy just had a 64 year old flow. Many of the 30 per month that Envoy is flowing to AA will be gone in 5-7 years due to retirement. So, they will fill an opening, and need another pilot to fill that same opening in a few years.

Also, the retirement numbers assume that all pilots stay until reaching 65. Many AA, UAL, and DL pilots are retiring before 65. That may mean that 2019 and 2020 may be much bigger retirement years than they are currently expected to be.

There is talk in OCC that ORD is going to close? Anyone hear that?


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Don't believe everything you hear.

Sending more pilots to other airlines is a fancy way of saying "our pilots are knocking down the doors to get out of here faster than anyone". I'm sorry, but if you are choosing between several regionals, XJT is career suicide. Did you not comprehend the ATL CAs on reserve in their 16th year? 9 year upgrades? 3 year FO reserve? Listen close: You will be a Captain at most regionals before you even get off reserve at XJT! Do yourself a favor and go to the regional which will get you to one of the big 4 fastest. Don't settle for an option close to home that may not exist in 3 years. Don't believe the recruiter lies about upgrade time and majors recruiters having a special place in their hearts for XJT pilots. The truth is they are desperate to put meat in the seats and if they don't, the airline will collapse into downgrades in 6 months of less. You don't want to be at the bottom of that mountain when it comes tumbling down. When 16 year Captains become senior FOs.

I sure hope you are leaving for Commutair or Mesa. If not, I think it's time for you to go and leave this "sinking ship".... as you say.

I was jump seating on ExpressJet this week and the crew mentioned losing 200s or merging with Endeavor. Merger seems like a huge stretch but curious if anyone has an knowledge of either. We know how rumors are in this business.

How would they merge? XJT is wholly owned by SkyWest. Endeavor would have to buy XJT?

But that's exactly how the labor department reports 'new jobs' every month...