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Old 12-03-2022 | 12:51 PM
  #1261  
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Default Class drops..

Originally Posted by ClncClarence
Not sure I’m following your logic here.

According to our ALPA page we have 1682 mandatory retirements through 2031. If they intend on staying the exact same size as we are at this moment, then we still need to hire at least that many in that timeframe.

We also still have additional airframe deliveries through 2025 to the tune of ~25 767s and ~7 777s depending on how many they have taken since September which will require another 400 pilots.

We currently have just under 6000 pilots on property. Worst case is needing to replace roughly 1/3 of that number in the next 8 years.

It’s actually 34 767s. So at current staffing rate for those fleets, it’s probably closer to 600 pilots needed. As you said, those deliveries are currently scheduled to be done by June 2025. With the current rate of retirements and early retirements, that’s another 800 pilots. For a total of about 1400 needed in the next 30 months. That’s for a net gain of 32 aircraft, not staying at current size.
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Old 12-03-2022 | 01:28 PM
  #1262  
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Originally Posted by FXLAX
It’s actually 34 767s. So at current staffing rate for those fleets, it’s probably closer to 600 pilots needed. As you said, those deliveries are currently scheduled to be done by June 2025. With the current rate of retirements and early retirements, that’s another 800 pilots. For a total of about 1400 needed in the next 30 months. That’s for a net gain of 32 aircraft, not staying at current size.
Yes you are correct. I was mistakenly subtracting the 10 767s scheduled to be delivered in FY 2023 from the earnings report.
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Old 12-03-2022 | 08:07 PM
  #1263  
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From: Gear Slinger
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Originally Posted by FXLAX
It’s actually 34 767s. So at current staffing rate for those fleets, it’s probably closer to 600 pilots needed. As you said, those deliveries are currently scheduled to be done by June 2025. With the current rate of retirements and early retirements, that’s another 800 pilots. For a total of about 1400 needed in the next 30 months. That’s for a net gain of 32 aircraft, not staying at current size.
Where do you find deliveries and options outstanding? I can't find anything on FRIS or PFC.
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Old 12-03-2022 | 08:32 PM
  #1264  
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Originally Posted by MoarAlpha
Where do you find deliveries and options outstanding? I can't find anything on FRIS or PFC.
Page 17 of the 10-Q on the investor relations page.
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Old 12-04-2022 | 10:55 AM
  #1265  
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From: 4A2FU
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Originally Posted by ClncClarence
Yeah and if my aunt had a d!ck she’d be my uncle.

Why would we make an assumption that all of the MDs would be parked without any replacements? Has there been any guidance to support that position?
The economy taking a ******* would be a solid reason to park the MDs without replacements. Even if we park half the MD fleet and half the airbus fleet (both relatively small fleets) we end up net negative on airplanes. It won't take much for us to shrink, honestly.

Originally Posted by pinseeker
Hate to burst your party bubble, but not yet. Seniority numbers only update in June, so with retirements since then, we are still at about 5920. Then we will have pilots retiring on Dec 31 which will probably bring us below 5900.
Technically he's right. We currently have over 6000 pilots on the seniority list.... first time in FedEx history. He did not say "active pilots."
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Old 12-04-2022 | 01:51 PM
  #1266  
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Default Class drops..

Originally Posted by threeighteen
The economy taking a ******* would be a solid reason to park the MDs without replacements. Even if we park half the MD fleet and half the airbus fleet (both relatively small fleets) we end up net negative on airplanes. It won't take much for us to shrink, honestly.

If we have a soft landing on the economy, no airplanes get parked. If there is a worse pandemic then what. If the Ukraine was escalates to WW3, then we are all ******. If if if…we can if to infinity.

By the way, we have more airbuses than we do 777. So I guess the triple is also a relatively small fleet? Maybe if then half the triples get parked?
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Old 12-05-2022 | 08:54 AM
  #1267  
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Originally Posted by threeighteen
Technically he's right. We currently have over 6000 pilots on the seniority list.... first time in FedEx history. He did not say "active pilots."

Yeah, that's what he meant and what matters. SMH I bet you would argue that a $1 and hour pay raise would technically be a pay raise and the first time in our history that we were over $336 per hour.

So in June, we will technically lose pilots from the seniority list and our seniority list would technically be shrinking.
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Old 12-05-2022 | 09:48 AM
  #1268  
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From: 4A2FU
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Originally Posted by pinseeker
Yeah, that's what he meant and what matters. SMH I bet you would argue that a $1 and hour pay raise would technically be a pay raise and the first time in our history that we were over $336 per hour.

So in June, we will technically lose pilots from the seniority list and our seniority list would technically be shrinking.
When other airlines discuss the size of their seniority list they discuss it with all the pilots on it, active or not. They use the term "active pilots" to describe pilots who actively fly for the company. It really is that simple, and yes that's probably what he meant.
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Old 12-05-2022 | 10:29 AM
  #1269  
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Originally Posted by threeighteen
When other airlines discuss the size of their seniority list they discuss it with all the pilots on it, active or not. They use the term "active pilots" to describe pilots who actively fly for the company. It really is that simple, and yes that's probably what he meant.
Yeah, because a pilot on the seniority list is either active, or retired, not. Point is, we have less than 6000 pilots on property. We have even less than 5920 active pilots. It really is that simple, and not what is implied by stating we have over 6000 plots on the seniority list.
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Old 12-05-2022 | 10:30 AM
  #1270  
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From: E170 CA/LCA
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Originally Posted by pinseeker
Yeah, because a pilot on the seniority list is either active, or retired, not. Point is, we have less than 6000 pilots on property. We have even less than 5920 active pilots. It really is that simple, and not what is implied by stating we have over 6000 plots on the seniority list.

New guy here…. What is the reason the new guys show up immediately but retirees only drop off in June?
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