Considering jumping ship
01-19-2020, 05:15 PM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 110
Originally Posted by The Duke
I’m starting to think automation and reduction of pilots in the flight deck will occur much more rapidly at the pax carriers. The driving force behind automation is to reduce the required number of pilots in order to reduce costs. If you look at the big 2 air freight haulers here domestically (US), between FedEx and UPS there are about 8000 pilots. Take a look at the Legacy carriers. Roughly 45,000 pilot positions spread about between just the big 3. Those are a lot of cost units that can be quickly eliminated to drive down labor costs (they represent a much larger percentage and chunk of labor costs relative to air freight haulers). If and when the technology is here to safely eliminate one or both pilots, I suspect it will take hold more aggressively on the pax side of the house. See the recent automated takeoff performed by Airbus? What kind of plane was that?
01-19-2020, 05:22 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Position: Excessed WB Capt.
Posts: 1,063
Originally Posted by fightandflight
I agree with you. I see distinct advantages to autonomous feeder aircraft into small airports, but when it comes to rolling this out in heavy aircraft I don’t think the passenger carriers are as safe as people think. These are likely going to be aircraft designed for the task, not some retrofit that can fly a sim, and the business case for supporting that kind of undertaking is not there for an airplane built exclusively for cargo. Sure, they might throw a pilot up there for a year to appease people, but when it comes it is coming for us all. This new generation might hesitate to get a drivers license, but they’ll have no issues getting on an autonomous airplane....especially at a discount! Bottom line - nothing to worry about until those autonomous feeders start operating so unless you are 16 I think you would be crazy to leave FedEx.
to be worried. Fdx can do that with no gov intervention....
01-20-2020, 05:19 PM
#53
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 16
As a new guy here commuting to reserve I very much appreciate this discussion and the points that have been discussed. I’d be lying if I said that it has been nothing but rainbows and sunshine or that I haven’t had doubts. There is bad press everywhere and it’s easy to get caught up in that mess if you don’t know any different. The perspective of the dudes who’ve been through this already is priceless. That said, I believe in the business model and think (hope) the Amazon threat is over hyped. I am extremely fortunate to have started before the music stopped and hope the hiring starts again soon for the sake of everyone swimming in the pool.
01-20-2020, 07:29 PM
#54
Social Media retired.
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 777
To the OP,
UPS guy here. I was in a similar place my first year. Got slapped with nite hub flying through peak. Couldn’t sleep days on which resulted in crap sleep days off. Was miserable and started to consider walking off even without another class date after about 4-5 weeks. By chance, got a lucky trip trade into a long international trip. Completely different job, schedule, crews, sleep cycles, etc. Shortly after I got on year 2 pay (we have <$50/hr yr 1), got more international and some day stuff and the job was completely unrecognizable and since then I’ve tasted a lot of the overall variety. I’d highly encourage you to stick around and taste some of the variability Fx has to offer before jumping ship. If you are worried about the Amazon thing, fwiw, a lot of guys at brown think it’s a better position to be in, vis-à-vis, severing ties with Bezos vs going all in as we have. To finish, I’ve gone back to nite hub stuff from time to time and it gets easier as you learn what your body can and will do. Still hate it but not the days off and commutability they can afford.
Good luck!!
UPS guy here. I was in a similar place my first year. Got slapped with nite hub flying through peak. Couldn’t sleep days on which resulted in crap sleep days off. Was miserable and started to consider walking off even without another class date after about 4-5 weeks. By chance, got a lucky trip trade into a long international trip. Completely different job, schedule, crews, sleep cycles, etc. Shortly after I got on year 2 pay (we have <$50/hr yr 1), got more international and some day stuff and the job was completely unrecognizable and since then I’ve tasted a lot of the overall variety. I’d highly encourage you to stick around and taste some of the variability Fx has to offer before jumping ship. If you are worried about the Amazon thing, fwiw, a lot of guys at brown think it’s a better position to be in, vis-à-vis, severing ties with Bezos vs going all in as we have. To finish, I’ve gone back to nite hub stuff from time to time and it gets easier as you learn what your body can and will do. Still hate it but not the days off and commutability they can afford.
Good luck!!
Last edited by FTv3; 01-20-2020 at 07:31 PM. Reason: Typos
01-20-2020, 09:50 PM
#55
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,068
This website has archives back to 2010. I think the remnants of flightinfo.com has archives back to 2001. For perspective sake on industry news, trends, enlightened pilot angst of the moment, etc it might be helpful to take a random walk through that stuff. Not necessarily to find anything specific relative to 2020, but to give what you’re hearing/thinking balance.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
01-21-2020, 12:02 PM
#57
Banned
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: Tom’s Whipping boy.
Posts: 1,182
Retiring United guy here.
Over 40 years in this business, I’ve learned a couple things.
Forget about any crystal ball predictions when it comes to career choices or investments.
Put family, QOL, and your health first.
If if you do the job just for the money and don’t enjoy it, you’ll be miserable and so will your family.
I had a class date with Seaboard (it became Tigers, then FedEx), a month before Tigers bought them and laid off a bunch of new hires and cancelled all classes. 1979.
I continued flying freight until 1987 when I went to CAL. That move cost me a LOT in seniority and pay (initially), but my QOL and health improved greatly. My family was sooo happy.
At the time CAL pay was dismal, as were predictions for their future. I didn’t care. I liked the flying and lived in base. (Cal was the first airline offer I got, followed closely by American and TWA and Western).
Several years later, all my friends at the Cargo op were looking for jobs. (Nobody saw that coming)
Ya just never know. Deal with what you know and can control.
Over 40 years in this business, I’ve learned a couple things.
Forget about any crystal ball predictions when it comes to career choices or investments.
Put family, QOL, and your health first.
If if you do the job just for the money and don’t enjoy it, you’ll be miserable and so will your family.
I had a class date with Seaboard (it became Tigers, then FedEx), a month before Tigers bought them and laid off a bunch of new hires and cancelled all classes. 1979.
I continued flying freight until 1987 when I went to CAL. That move cost me a LOT in seniority and pay (initially), but my QOL and health improved greatly. My family was sooo happy.
At the time CAL pay was dismal, as were predictions for their future. I didn’t care. I liked the flying and lived in base. (Cal was the first airline offer I got, followed closely by American and TWA and Western).
Several years later, all my friends at the Cargo op were looking for jobs. (Nobody saw that coming)
Ya just never know. Deal with what you know and can control.
01-24-2020, 02:44 PM
#58
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,622
Originally Posted by 123456
The problem now, is due to the slowdown in hiring, you might be at the bottom for much longer than expected. It's also hard to pass up rapid seniority at other carriers just from massive retirements each year alone. .
Four years ago I did a comparison of the airlines and looked specifically at hiring from retirements as a percent of the crew force. Not one airline, now even Delta's with their hiring boom, exceeded FedEx. Only United in the last four years of my career exceeded FedEx's retirements as a percent of the crew force -- AT THAT TIME. Since Fedex hired a bunch last year, the percentages would be skewed a bit. But even when I did the math, the retirements as a percent were within a tenth of each other.
Roughly looking at the numbers today, FDX 35% and DAL 41% planned retirements of the current crew force in the next ten years.
Last edited by PurpleToolBox; 01-24-2020 at 02:56 PM.
01-24-2020, 03:06 PM
#59
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 923
Originally Posted by PurpleToolBox
People being added beneath you does not equal seniority. Seniority is how close you get to the top.
Four years ago I did a comparison of the airlines and looked specifically at hiring from retirements as a percent of the crew force. Not one airline, now even Delta's with their hiring boom, exceeded FedEx. Only United in the last four years of my career exceeded FedEx's retirements as a percent of the crew force -- AT THAT TIME. Since Fedex hired a bunch last year, the percentages would be skewed a bit. But even when I did the math, the retirements as a percent were within a demical of each other.
Four years ago I did a comparison of the airlines and looked specifically at hiring from retirements as a percent of the crew force. Not one airline, now even Delta's with their hiring boom, exceeded FedEx. Only United in the last four years of my career exceeded FedEx's retirements as a percent of the crew force -- AT THAT TIME. Since Fedex hired a bunch last year, the percentages would be skewed a bit. But even when I did the math, the retirements as a percent were within a demical of each other.
Tell that to the people that have gotten furloughed over the years!! The reality is BOTH bottom and above are important, but bottom provides insurance. And while you are looking back, everyone is looking forward. The ship has sailed on Delta for the average guy (not if you are real young), NO ONE will provide as rapid seniority ascension as AA, not even remotely close!! And one would think the complete disarray is going to be fixed eventually (good steps taken by new planning guy). Fedex is right about average as far as seniority progression is concerned, just as UPS is.
While seniority progression is very important, for a new guy people below you is just as or more important. If a person really wants to work for a particular company, then it really doesn’t matter. I would say most folks pay attention to hiring trends, and while I personally believe the current Fedex hiring slowdown will not last long, others might think otherwise. Everyone is currently hiring pretty much at max capacity, including Brown, while Fedex stands out. Just bad optics.
I am very much rooting for FedEx, but the current optics simply might sway some people, just a bad time to be hitting a funk when the pilot shortage situation is about to get more acute.
01-24-2020, 04:11 PM
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 936
Originally Posted by C2078
Tell that to the people that have gotten furloughed over the years!! The reality is BOTH bottom and above are important, but bottom provides insurance. And while you are looking back, everyone is looking forward. The ship has sailed on Delta for the average guy (not if you are real young), NO ONE will provide as rapid seniority ascension as AA, not even remotely close!! And one would think the complete disarray is going to be fixed eventually (good steps taken by new planning guy). Fedex is right about average as far as seniority progression is concerned, just as UPS is.
While seniority progression is very important, for a new guy people below you is just as or more important. If a person really wants to work for a particular company, then it really doesn’t matter. I would say most folks pay attention to hiring trends, and while I personally believe the current Fedex hiring slowdown will not last long, others might think otherwise. Everyone is currently hiring pretty much at max capacity, including Brown, while Fedex stands out. Just bad optics.
I am very much rooting for FedEx, but the current optics simply might sway some people, just a bad time to be hitting a funk when the pilot shortage situation is about to get more acute.
While seniority progression is very important, for a new guy people below you is just as or more important. If a person really wants to work for a particular company, then it really doesn’t matter. I would say most folks pay attention to hiring trends, and while I personally believe the current Fedex hiring slowdown will not last long, others might think otherwise. Everyone is currently hiring pretty much at max capacity, including Brown, while Fedex stands out. Just bad optics.
I am very much rooting for FedEx, but the current optics simply might sway some people, just a bad time to be hitting a funk when the pilot shortage situation is about to get more acute.
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