I'm not here to be inflammatory or divisive in a time where we need unity and I agree with a lot of what you posted, but I had to reply. Have you ever worked for a regional airline? I understand your post about ASL not being 100% FDX, but this has the same exact playbook as the regional airlines written all over it. Does ASL need to be 100% FDX to absorb a nice chunk of the 75 European flying? I think the 100% bit you give is a bit of a strawman. It doesn't need to be 100%, in my opinion, to be a threat to our jobs here. I couldn't agree with you more about exec's. I don't know if I agree with you on the economic side of things, though. I'd like to read some articles perhaps about positive economic sentiments and perhaps I'll do some more digging around, but, from what I read, the Fed is predicting a mild recession by end of 2023 (from a meeting on 4/12/23). It seems like I'm constantly reading about tech layoffs and other economically pessimistic news. I'm not an economist, obviously, but I don't know that I would agree that we're on the precipice of an explosion of spending and travelling. I hope you're right, though.

 

I sure did work for a regional and charter operators and ACMI carriers and Part 91 operator both domestic and abroad. Ive been in THIS business for a long time and had a horse shot out from underneath me once or twice.

So let's look at the facts we have. Does ASL have enough capacity to takeober a significant portion of the europena flying that the CGN base currently operates? No it does not.

Could it takeover 50% of it? No it could not anytime soon.

Did fedex state it was going to ceede all european flying to ASL? No they did not. In fact the specifically stated that the MEM 75 would be supporting European ops as it has been for years and did massively during covid.

opinion
If you had been based there during this time you could see it coming a mile away.

I also don't think the company wants that. Their dispatch reliability was pretty poor.

All that said if it gets people to pay attention to scope and realize that this focused negotations nonsense was bull 💩 from the beginning and was a mistake then thats to the good.

Beyond that making rash emotional decisions based on what you think is gonna happen from a system bid is folly. These systems bids arent worth the time spent to publish them. Trying to forecast manning levels 2 years into the future is what got them here in the first place.

The recession has been here. They wished it into existence long enough for inflation to cool and the supply chains to catch up. Things will return because the must. We are into deep now. The SVB collapse along with credit suisse and several others proved it. So did the government agreeing to protect ALL of those deposits. Print borrow print some more lend out 90% print some more. We cannot get off this merry go round without destroying everything.

Do not be afraid. Fear is the mind killer. It is the little death.

 

All fair points you make. I like conversations like this. I didn't mean to insult your experience by asking that question either, just merely trying to gauge whether or not you've been exposed to this playbook before. That being said, what makes you think that, despite never having announced an official ceding flying to them, they aren't simply holding this close to their chest as a means of retaliation a la AMR and Eagle/Envoy negotiations. AMR ceded Eagle flying and metal to TSA, which had notoriously **** poor operational control and reliability, just to essentially tighten the noose around the pilot group to show them they were willing to play ball too. You know what I mean? I understand your point you make. I realize it will not be an overnight thing should they decide to pursue this path, but certainly we cannot rule out this possibility? I realize this is all part of the game. I'm really not afraid. I couldn't be more excited because this is the one time where emails don't do **** and rubber meets road.

I would be interested to see how fast they could churn out those 738 conversions using 2 or 3 facilities.

I definitely think it is all worth the fight, but a fight it will be which is why my eyes are always on orders like these during times of economic/corporate fiscal austerity. If they're already trimming the fat by closing the FDA, why not trim even more and get rid of the Europe DH'ing and let these guys do it especially if we don't like what the company has to offer.

Couldn't agree with you more on your last statement about monetary policy and economic outlook, but it is my opinion that they've been specifically stalling anyways to bring us to this threshold. Hard to make an argument for concessions during good times. Easier when you sit at the precipice of economic uncertainty and you cutoff the hiring flow. I'd like to qualify all of this by saying I know absolutely nothing though . We shall see.

 

Crumble? You have it exactly backwards. Crumbling is accepting the worst scope in the industry.

 

Yeah but scope. This thread wasn’t about the bid until you mentioned it. It’s about scope, that’s it. People have been beating the scope drum since before any news about future bids. It’s not emotional to demand better scope, it’s smart. Especially at a time when we have maximum leverage. Not for another seven years later during the next negotiation. It’s not about what they say or not say they want to do. Because they may be planning it and if they are, they won’t tell us they will do this sort of thing until it’s too late…after ratification. It’s simply the smart thing for us to button up scope now while we have the opportunity. No fear in any of that, it’s simply prudent. Don’t you agree?

By the way, who says it’s just ASL? In the regional (ACMI) model, the legacies had multiple, up to nine airlines, all contracted out to fly their passengers. Trust me, when another company sees that ASL is getting more and more FedEx flying, they will try to come in and undercut ASL, further encenticizing more outsourcing. And that’s how it starts, with one company making a profit and another seeing their margins as an opportunity.

 

What are you talking about? Stop blowing it up into what it’s not. It’s all based on the last award of which many haven’t been trained yet.

For example, MEM loses 25 77CA. That 25 is not from the active 777 CA list. The sky is not falling, it’s a realignment bid and junior guys are going to get moved around but no real losses.
Scope on the other hand could be an issue.
#DELTA+ #SCOPE #NO CONCESSIONS

 

I dont think you read the post in its entirety… Europe is just the beginning APAC will be next target


From ASL website today:Larger aircraft, like the A321 and additional A330's will join our fleet soon, again allowing us to transport higher freight loads on single flights. Here again we are developing our fleet to meet the business and growth ambitions of our customers.

 

Except for the minimum two aircraft wet leasing referred to above,

during the bid periods described in this paragraph, the Company

shall not wet lease more than the net gain of trunk aircraft scheduled

to be added and brought into service in any calendar year.

Should, at the end of the calendar year, the Company actually

bring into service fewer trunk aircraft than were scheduled and

based on the schedule, the Company wet leased more aircraft

than would have been permitted if the scheduled additions were

the same as the actual deliveries, then the Company shall pay to

the Association the same monies it would have paid the Association

as calculated under Section 1.B.6.a.

 

The 777 CA current staffing level is 589 (according to the system bid)
and going down to 564. It’s about the CURRENT STAFFING LEVEL which is what you call the active list. I’ve been wrong before but to me it seems to be in black and white that they are reducing the current 777 CAs by 25 not reducing them by 25 CAs waiting for a training date.

 

There are 431 B777 Captains on the May bid pack. So looks like they are reducing their estimate of Captains required from the massive 2021-01 bid around the contract amendable date!