Roger. We came very close last month too with Dec getting up to 1976 with the new class and finishing Jan with 1977. Losing 27 last month was a new high since 30 were lost in June. We are at 18 this month with a week to go until the next class. Something’s gotta change and I don’t believe new hires bonuses are the correct answer. Cough cough Delta rates +80% cough.

 

Indigo and their minion BB certainly will not be content as a financial management company with $40M, especially when most of that has to be turned around and put back into the company.
If they could shine this thing up so nice that it would double the stock price that might be one thing but that’s not really happening. They seem to be struggling to even get it back to its IPO price.
They are not here to run an airline, they are here to make money.
Looking at what assets they have available to market. To start with the aircraft, to a hypothetical United sale the aircraft represent a 20% more fuel efficient fleet than their current fleet. Someone else can do the math on how much that is over a year not to mention meeting their green airline goals that much quicker.
As far as indigo is concerned they can continue to benefit from future deliveries as they churn the aircraft from one hand to the other.
As much as I loathe the idea of operating out of the to be A-hole on the east end of the Denver A concourse. In terms of a sellable assets it’s a great move. Tie up for ten years the last piece of real estate that is quickly ready for gate expansion, put a cheap building on it and tell all future suitors it is ready for them to make their mark with additional gates on the A concourse.
Throw in the added benefit that by tying up frontier with somebody else, they will no longer be anyone to erode their fares.

At the end of the day we can all banter over the benefits and advantages of being sold, but when you look at it through the eyes of a financial management company they are not going to make their money by simply operating the airline.
Just my thought…

 

I've said it before, the legacies slowed down and had backed up classes all summer and fall. I now know a few guys that interviewed late summer and are just now going through training at the big guys. I suspect the seniority list to continue to draw down for a while.

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As much as I love the idea of us struggling that much for pilots, I just don't really see it.

We are clearly able to hire in big numbers. We are currently fat on pilots. Our order book is delayed giving them a little extra breathing room.

We are far from a big pilot problem. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but its not here yet. Heck, there's no open time and no premium trips. We are seemingly as fat on pilots as we've been in a while

 

Let’s be real, Frontier’s ability to fill classes has nothing to do with their ability to run an airline. They really only require a pulse and a certificate, and any 1500 hour kid is happy to sign up. That same 1500 hour kid would much rather fly for frontier for the next three years instead of the 4-5 year fly United and American regionals have them on.

That kid won’t upgrade and will get to fly the wide body of their dreams in 1 year earlier at his/her dream airline. All of the sudden Frontier will realize they have a pilot retention problem when they can’t fill upgrade classes and start parking airlines. BB is right, we aren’t a regional, but he’s marketing our airline to become one.

 

While I agree currently its interesting the difference a month or two can make though. Assuming 15.5 pilots per aircraft…We started out the year with 118 airframes and had a surplus of around 170 pilots. Here we are at the middle of Feb with 123 airframes and a surplus of only 90 pilots and they mention wanting to get the utilization higher. It remains to be seen if they intend to extend leases on older aircraft to make up the difference for the delays in orders as well. That could certainly happen.

Edit to add: looks like the next bid is out with another 40 spots all dedicated to DFW. So just a relatively medium size class again. That should bring us to a surplus of 130 if nobody else leaves…which they will.

 

You're 100% right. Someone on here did the math, and we are fine for quite a while, and now with the slowing orders, even more so. I think all of us are hoping the numbers, while fine to run the airline, are troubling to management and it'll help our negotiations. It's hard to have that hope when AA is telling their pilots to go to DL, and dragging out talks. Who knows.

 

How many have been leaving?

 

June of last year was the worst month according to Flica with 30. I was curious what would happen after the raise. It seemed to work for a short bit but now we are creeping back up.

June - 30
J - 26
A - 14
S - 22
O - 16
N - 15
D - 22
J - 27
F…so far… 18

BB maybe correct in that we are fully staffed, but he is out of touch with the industry (if he believes what he says) and we could fall behind very quickly with smaller class sizes.

 

Nearly every FO I fly with has an interview, multiple CJO's, or a class date. Many are only a few months out of initial training. I know captains senior to me that are leaving, or entertaining the thought because they just don't want to spend the rest of their career here. If management even remotely tried to pull any of the tactics in upcoming negotiations like they did before our current contract it would be like the scene in "City Slickers" when Billy Crystal switched on the coffee grinder and caused a stampede. Barry would be the big guy on the horse saying, "Why are all the pilots going away?"