gojo

AS was said in post 22

Five93H

Can I get around 3 more people to tell me who owns the 900s?

Papa Bear

Right... I never get why people care who own what tail number... In this environment... It doesn't matter.

Unless you have Skeltons in your closet, you can walk into any recruitment office and ask when the next class is. And you will be in it.

stepping razor

All flying IS returning to Delta/Delta held companies. GoJet, just like ExpressJet was is only in DTW to allow Endeavors expansion in NYC as they ramp up crewing and shift to strictly 2 class flying.

Another thing to note, is Endeavor also has the EMB170/5 training/MX program approval from the FAA so that would suggest that as they are able to crew those birds Delta will be moving those too.

Another interesting issue is the fact that Delta is not happy with the MX (reliability) of other sub contractors. Sometime last year Endeavor started doing the MX on GoJet aircraft, and had serious issues with the MX of the initial 200's transferred from ExpressJet.

Bear in mind, Endeavor is not a part of DCI and does not report to DCI management, but a "department" within Delta. Many have compared ComAir to Endeavor but they are only similar in ownership and aircraft type. Management and company culture is drastically different, and Delta and the pilot group for the most part have learnt from the past and won't make the same mistakes in the future.

The regional model has failed, and all majors are trying to adapt and adjust to ensure the long term viability of their product. Delta's plan is to have end to end control of all aspects, so much so that Delta and Endeavor flight attendants are the ONLY ones who will be getting the new Zac Pozen uniforms. That in itself is quite interesting IJS.

SEPfield

That is the most accurate part of your statement.

A possibility you perhaps didn't consider and I'll admit is pure speculation on my part is that maybe Delta is trying to eliminate the competition. Endeavor is still one of the few regionals that has not had to renegotiate its pay rates, meaning that once you subtract out the bonuses Endeavor is one of the cheapest regionals available right now.

If Delta were to close down ASA/Expressjet, GoJet, Compass..etc then the (currently reduced) amount of pilots would have fewer companies competing for their skills and Delta wouldn't have to pay as big of a bonus to attract attention.

Then when the next economic downturn hits, Delta can drop all the bonuses and Endeavor is right back to its bare bones post bankruptcy contract and the pilots on property have no choice but too accept it, because there is nowhere else to go. Especially true if Delta then announces the DGI program is the only way for a civilian pilot to get hired at delta. Sounds like end to end control to me


Anyone who thinks the regional model is dead hasn't watched enough horror movies.

As I said, pure speculation and I hope I'm wrong, I still have a lot of friends at endeavor.

gojo

How narrow is your view? Delta isn't the only mainline around. American, and United need just as many pilots as Delta. If not more. And if Delta doesn't keep pace with them, where do you think the majority will go? IMHO, American has the best thing going via their commitment to their regionals. And I'm not specifically talking about flow

SEPfield

Delta will continue to keep pace with the other carriers as long as they need to. I'm saying that when the next downturn comes they will no longer need the bonuses to keep pace. The regional carriers for Delta, American and United will all drop the bonus programs the first chance they get. Then Endeavor is left with some of the lowest pay rates in the industry. Sure the Endeavor pilots could leave to go to Envoy, PSA, Piedmont, Commutair, Air Wisconsin...etc, but if there is no bonus at these carriers then it would still be a pay cut and a loss of seniority to make a lateral move. It's 2008 all over again

American does have a great deal, not only can they drop the bonus program, but they can immediately begin whipsawing their carriers against each other again.

Right now things are great. Pay is up, bonuses are plentiful, reserve is short and upgrade almost a certainty. Just like the summer of 2001 and the summer of 2007. I like everyone else am enjoying the ride, but I'm also making a plan for when the bottom drops out and I can promise you, the leadership at America, Delta, and United are already putting their plans in motion.

gojo

Quit talking so cryptic and try being more specific. What makes you so sure the bottom will drop out and effect the industry to the level you're hinting at? All the majors have retirements happening at a rate that's never been seen before. This will continue for many many more years. Who's going to fill those spots? I'm not even talking about growth. But even if the majors were forced to downsize, by say 10% for the sake of a number. That's still going to require a healthy pool of replacements. Do you care to speculate on how reducing pay and quality of life will effect this industry? We've seen this before. A good portion of those being hired today are people that held off because they refused to work for peanuts. And lastly what exactly do you think the majors doing in preparation for the eventual downturn you say is coming?

SEPfield

I'm not being cryptic, I don't know any more than anyone else. I'm just offering an alternative viewpoint.
The economy and this industry goes in cycles and it doesn't take much to slow things back down. If the stock market takes a dip and the retirement age is changed to 70? Suddenly a lot of those retirements go away. What if Delta one day decides its cheaper to joint venture away most of it's international flying and focus on domestic? (wait thats already happening)

I agree, reducing pilot pay and quality of life will have an adverse affect on the aviation industry, However if there is one thing this current "pilot Shortage" has proved is that it doesn't take much improvement to make things start moving again. Offer a 10-20k bonus and all of a sudden you can't kick over a rock without turning up a dozen 55 year old doctors, dentist, salesmen and stockbrokers that cant wait to be airline pilots.

The majors are preparing for a downturn the same way every business prepares for a downturn, by consolidating resources and reducing competition.

Disclaimer (again) This is pure speculation on my part. This is not a personal attack on anyones viewpoints, beliefs, airline or profession of choice.

gojo

The majors are consolidating resources and reducing competition to take care of their shareholders. And historically the airlines operate reactively verses proactively. About the only thing I agree with your thinking is that this is all conjecture. Me having a more optimistic view. We shall see. Hopefully this country will not have an economic downturn or another catastrophic event ever again