Wanted to tag in on this just for some perspective on the AA side. I figured if your read this far into the thread, maybe someone can get some use out of this information.

I did a deep dive into our numbers. As of today, through the next 5 years (end of 2030) there are 3,886 mandatory retirements. the peak in next year, then is a slow decline through the end of the decade. i’ll post the numbers below.

2025 (today through year end) 431
2026: 819
2027: 734
2028: 677
2029: 645
2030: 580


As for A/C, the latest data I can see is from April, and it shows we have 123 planes slated for delivery in the next 3 years alone, with another 330 planes scheduled for delivery beyond 2028

Also, as of the last bid that just came out (we do 4 per year) UPG is right at 2 years, Wide Body out of NYC is hovering at 3. With so many retiring soon, mainly CA’s and wide body guys, I’d expect these numbers to still drop a bit lower.

This place is far from perfect, but i think our latest contract brings us on parallel with UA & DL (you could nitpick, as they have some things we don’t have, but we have some things they wish they had as well) and although I’m no fan of our management, in the last few months they’ve really started to put a strong emphasis on attracting premium customers and improving customer service. Who knew, the folks that pay the most need to be sought after lol

yes, we have debt, that’s also because we did a complete re-fleeting long before United and Delta did, and that debt is actually relatedly cheap given that those planes were bought before inflation pricing and interest rate skyrocketed post Covid. Additionally, due to a young fleet, there are no airplanes being retired for at least the end of the decade. every jet that gets delivered is pure growth.

All that is to say; JB (and UA & DL) are each places with their own pro’s & con’s, and that differs per pilot. AA is no exception. And while I wish my profit sharing checked looked like DL’s, what I think makes us unique is the massive retirement numbers that still haven’t peaked, and the loads of planes getting delivered that are purely to grown this place even bigger. if someone was considering making the jump, doing it in the next year would still lend you at the front half of the big hiring wave we have here. The upgrade time is low and you can certainly find yourself on a wide body within the next few years if that’s what you desire. We have bases in similar markets that JetBlue does, being Boston, New York, LA, and South Florida. if you’re on the fence, it’s worth putting in an application and going from there!

 

DefaultQuote:
Originally Posted by Beech Dude
Yeah. Dude/Dudette is just under 3 yrs to WB. Im happily eating some crow over here; LGA 78 had big numbers this time. LGA is the junior spot again across the system; plugs were close across the bases but all the most junior awards I saw are:

​​​LGA 777 CA: Jul '89
LGA 787 CA: Nov '99

LGA 787 FO: Oct '22
​​​​​MIA 777 FO: Aug '22

LGA 320 CA: Feb '23
LGA 737 CA: Mar '23

Sliceback -

December award. So 3 years 4 months to junior w/b after DOH. Three years 2 months in NYC.
Captain was 2 years 10 months from DOH to upgrade in NYC.

Lots of 2022 and 2023 hires to work through before the 2024 new hires get to upgrade. As the retirements drop off the time to upgrade should/might lengthen. Is Delta still doing their 2 year upgrades? Or has the shift in their hiring bubble, recent hiring, and retirements changed the upgrade rush of 2022(?)?

 

This is going to cause CRAZY hiring at AA. We are in the midst of it at United until 2032 when we stop getting our 100 planes (787, 321 NEO/XLR, MAX) a year.

What I'm wondering is where we are going to get all the pilots from? UAL/AA/DAL will likely require 6,000 pilots a year between them and we could easily wipe out a few competitors if we just hired all their pilots and forced them into training churn hell, which would be a huge cost to them just like Spirit has been dealing with over the last 4 years.

 

Worth mentioning, btw, for those sticking it out at B6, even if we went tango uniform and completely evaporated and ended up on the street, ALPA gives preferential hiring to furloughed union pilots, and the majors will have a solid need for pilots for at least the next decade. Not saying don’t go now if you’re on the fence, but again, I think the chances of any given pilot being SOL and having to go learn a trade just to scrape a buck is about 0.

 

Two years ago regionals were offering $200,000 signing bonus and a longevity credit for years served. Hiring Street Captains or guaranteed upgrade at 100 hours. When the majors drain the regional pool again in the next couple years this may be an option for those with a couple years left.

 

ALPA preferential treatment only got about 7% of Eastern pilots a job at United after Eastern closed. Not sure how many other ALPA carriers took. I think most of them ended up at other carriers, eventually. United would have hired those pilot probably anyway, it just got them hired sooner.

The only downside would be the 9 months without a paycheck, since that's the current wait for a new hire class, and the lost seniority at NewCo. Guys that are leaving now are going from LCC to Major without missing a paycheck and more in control of their lives.

I think some guys are waiting for the "impending" acquisition, so they can keep their CA pay and just transition into a new seniority list without starting over. I do not think B6 is at risk of going anywhere for a while.

 

Yeah and it’s definitely not a strategy, per se, and you’d just be giving up seniority by not going sooner, assuming one doesn’t want to be at B6. I’m just saying some dudes seem to think it’s either you go to the big 3 right now, or there’s 0 options left down the road if B6 goes away, but that’s not really accurate.

 

I don't know about "close to zero". I say that as someone who believes it's less likely than a lot of people here think. There was literally a JetBlue pilot in uniform, standing behind Trump at his "one, big, beautiful bill" event last month, at the White House. After seeing Spirit go bankrupt and now ironically trying to reinvent itself to have options similar to a major carrier (the very outcome regulators were trying to avoid by denying the merger meant to preserve a true ULCC) combined with a shifting political climate, I wouldn't say the odds are "close to zero". Especially if your argument is the DOJ.

 

Wasn’t the other pilot a united guy? I think JetBlue finally wised up about politics after what the previous administration did.

 

Whatever it was Dems don’t like it. Blumenthal of CT is sniffing around reports Reuters on July 11th.https://www.reuters.com/sustainabili...on-2025-07-11/