The pilot shortage is over:
03-09-2024 | 03:57 PM
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,434
Likes: 124
From: Window seat
At AA? FAPA data says 1999 - 1082, 2000 - 1171 new hires. Seems right. Recollection was it was 1000+. That was back when AA had about 9,000 - 10,000 pilots. So about 10-12% growth minus retirements (2%??). So perhaps a net increase of 8-10%?
Today's hiring of 2,200 is about 15%. Subtract 6%+ to retirements and the net gain is approx. 9%?
Mid 1980's AA was hiring 900+ and had a total pilot corps of 4,100 (?) starting 1985. I might be off by a year. Roughly a 20% *NET* increase in manning. To do that today would require hiring 3,800 to net 3,000 additional pilots. It puts the mid 1980's in perspective.
Today's hiring of 2,200 is about 15%. Subtract 6%+ to retirements and the net gain is approx. 9%?
Mid 1980's AA was hiring 900+ and had a total pilot corps of 4,100 (?) starting 1985. I might be off by a year. Roughly a 20% *NET* increase in manning. To do that today would require hiring 3,800 to net 3,000 additional pilots. It puts the mid 1980's in perspective.
03-09-2024 | 04:04 PM
#62
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
At AA? FAPA data says 1999 - 1082, 2000 - 1171 new hires. Seems right. Recollection was it was 1000+. That was back when AA had about 9,000 - 10,000 pilots. So about 10-12% growth minus retirements (2%??). So perhaps a net increase of 8-10%?
Today's hiring of 2,200 is about 15%. Subtract 6%+ to retirements and the net gain is approx. 9%?
Mid 1980's AA was hiring 900+ and had a total pilot corps of 4,100 (?) starting 1985. I might be off by a year. Roughly a 20% *NET* increase in manning. To do that today would require hiring 3,800 to net 3,000 additional pilots. It puts the mid 1980's in perspective.
Today's hiring of 2,200 is about 15%. Subtract 6%+ to retirements and the net gain is approx. 9%?
Mid 1980's AA was hiring 900+ and had a total pilot corps of 4,100 (?) starting 1985. I might be off by a year. Roughly a 20% *NET* increase in manning. To do that today would require hiring 3,800 to net 3,000 additional pilots. It puts the mid 1980's in perspective.
03-09-2024 | 08:45 PM
#63
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,261
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The "intensity" of the hiring was unsustainable. At AA it was about 14% YOY increase in hiring. Subtract 6% for retirements and the net increase was about 8%? When they're hoping to sustain 2-3% annual growth? No company will continue hiring their most expensive workers at a rate that's maybe 5% more than their needs. If 5 years they'd have a surplus of 25% manning.
03-10-2024 | 08:23 AM
#64
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2016
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Slightly less than that. The recent CBAs did more than just bring up pay rates. Most gained more soft time, vacation time, sick leave, etc., that will translate into a greater pilot requirement to fly the same number of hours. It won't be much less than you say though, because the trend is to aircraft with more seats which will largely offset that.
But I haven't ran into anyone else doing the same. Everyone I know and everyone I fly with, to a person, talk about how they're maximizing their pay and what their pay is or some such.
03-10-2024 | 09:25 AM
#65
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Joined: Dec 2012
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I have myself made a concious decision to work less going forward. Decided I'd rather work less for the same money than work the same for more money. I regularly trade down in value to work less days and/or avoid working days I'd rather not work.
But I haven't ran into anyone else doing the same. Everyone I know and everyone I fly with, to a person, talk about how they're maximizing their pay and what their pay is or some such.
But I haven't ran into anyone else doing the same. Everyone I know and everyone I fly with, to a person, talk about how they're maximizing their pay and what their pay is or some such.
Last edited by fcoolaiddrinker; 03-10-2024 at 09:48 AM.
03-10-2024 | 02:07 PM
#66
At your mom's house
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,719
Likes: 485
From: cpt 737
I have myself made a concious decision to work less going forward. Decided I'd rather work less for the same money than work the same for more money. I regularly trade down in value to work less days and/or avoid working days I'd rather not work.
But I haven't ran into anyone else doing the same. Everyone I know and everyone I fly with, to a person, talk about how they're maximizing their pay and what their pay is or some such.
But I haven't ran into anyone else doing the same. Everyone I know and everyone I fly with, to a person, talk about how they're maximizing their pay and what their pay is or some such.
03-10-2024 | 03:38 PM
#67
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,261
Likes: 259
The longer your time horizon the less medical issues matter. A pilot who medicals out at 63 in 2025 doesn't retire in 2027. So for a given year you might expect 100 retirements and get 110 ... for a decade you're gonna expect 1000 retirements and get 1020 or whatever.
03-10-2024 | 04:19 PM
#68
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,875
Likes: 122
I have myself made a concious decision to work less going forward. Decided I'd rather work less for the same money than work the same for more money. I regularly trade down in value to work less days and/or avoid working days I'd rather not work.
But I haven't ran into anyone else doing the same. Everyone I know and everyone I fly with, to a person, talk about how they're maximizing their pay and what their pay is or some such.
But I haven't ran into anyone else doing the same. Everyone I know and everyone I fly with, to a person, talk about how they're maximizing their pay and what their pay is or some such.
Thats why I took the upgrade. I can work 40hrs and pay my bills. I can work 65hrs and save money. Or I can work 75+ hrs and get money for other projects while still enjoying 15-17days off.
Thats without overtime and without working the system. QOL all the way!
03-10-2024 | 05:45 PM
#69
On Reserve
Joined: Nov 2023
Posts: 60
Likes: 2
Yes, "issues" have always been the reasons the airlines hiring and furlougihng habits have been peaks and valleys.
03-11-2024 | 08:26 AM
#70
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2022
Posts: 1,796
Likes: 139
It’s aero crew, but the quotes voices are speaking facts.
https://aerocrewnews.com/aviation-ne...rtage-is-over/?
https://aerocrewnews.com/aviation-ne...rtage-is-over/?
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