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Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4029395)
Asian cargoes are already loading in the $170s. They'll pay anything to prevent shutting down refiners which is an extremely expensive process.
The Oil market is like toilet paper. You don't realize how badly you need it until you run out. As long as there's still inventory to draw down here in the US there won't be panic On that note, seems that Iran is about 10ish days away from turning off their oil pipes. If that happens, it’ll either cost too much to turn back on or it won’t turn on due to irreparable damage. Not gonna pretend to be an expert in all this, but if the above is true, there’s a chance this is over soon enough with a deal in favor of the US |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4029131)
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s national rial currency hit a record low Wednesday of 1.8 million to the dollar as a shaky ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel holds.
The rial had remained stable in the early weeks of the war that began Feb. 28, in part because there was little trading or imports. The rial began to slide two days ago. Experts warn that its fall is likely to further fuel inflation in a country where many imported goods, from food and medicine to electronics and raw materials, are affected by the dollar rate. A U.S. naval blockade during the ceasefire has increased pressure on Iran’s already battered economy, cutting into a key source of government revenue and hard currency by stopping or intercepting oil shipments. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Wednesday his government was continuing efforts to help ease tensions between the U.S and Iran following an initial round of direct talks on April 11. Iran will ride this out longer than the will of the American people to ride this out. The difference between sitting on your couch and dropping bombs thousands of miles away. Versus. Having 2 countries drop bombs on your country, kill your leadership, threaten to annihilate you and your infrastructure while in the same breath encouraging you to “uprise.” Iranians are Iranians first. Their hatred of the Ayatollah leadership is far less than their hatred of being bombed and threatened by the United States and Israel. Good luck trying to ride this out with the Persian empire. They have far more patience than the typical American voter. |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4029417)
Iran will ride this out longer than the will of the American people to ride this out.
The difference between sitting on your couch and dropping bombs thousands of miles away. Versus. Having 2 countries drop bombs on your country, kill your leadership, threaten to annihilate you and your infrastructure while in the same breath encouraging you to “uprise.” Iranians are Iranians first. Their hatred of the Ayatollah leadership is far less than their hatred of being bombed and threatened by the United States and Israel. Good luck trying to ride this out with the Persian empire. They have far more patience than the typical American voter. |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4029417)
Iran will ride this out longer than the will of the American people to ride this out.
The difference between sitting on your couch and dropping bombs thousands of miles away. Versus. Having 2 countries drop bombs on your country, kill your leadership, threaten to annihilate you and your infrastructure while in the same breath encouraging you to “uprise.” Iranians are Iranians first. Their hatred of the Ayatollah leadership is far less than their hatred of being bombed and threatened by the United States and Israel. Good luck trying to ride this out with the Persian empire. They have far more patience than the typical American voter. What are Americans actually riding out? The Backstreet Boys were just in the news for breaking records in Vegas. Not to sure if very many entertainment acts in Iran are setting profitability records right now. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4029437)
Reports are they are moving to pinch off money supply for payroll.
What are Americans actually riding out? $30 a month fuel increases? No more candy bars with EBT? |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4029437)
Reports are they are moving to pinch off money supply for payroll.
What are Americans actually riding out? $30 a month fuel increases? No more candy bars with EBT? People driving efficient vehicles aren't taking much of a hit. A 50 mpg hybrid it's about $30/month more assuming 15k miles. A 15 mpg truck more like $100/month. To your credit, so far it seems this has had almost no effect on consumer spending. Hopefully they keep buying airline tickets. |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4029417)
Iran will ride this out longer than the will of the American people to ride this out.
The difference between sitting on your couch and dropping bombs thousands of miles away. Versus. Having 2 countries drop bombs on your country, kill your leadership, threaten to annihilate you and your infrastructure while in the same breath encouraging you to “uprise.” Iranians are Iranians first. Their hatred of the Ayatollah leadership is far less than their hatred of being bombed and threatened by the United States and Israel. Good luck trying to ride this out with the Persian empire. They have far more patience than the typical American voter. 38b with zip to show for what’s going to take at least a year to regenerate in trade business. All that under orders of an overlord riding high on empty promises of no new wars. Leaving us but one thing to do now. |
Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer
(Post 4029415)
Probably because China gets a lot of their oil from Iran. Which is a problem (for them) with the US blockade. A little bit of hurt to go around for everyone until this mess is resolved.
On that note, seems that Iran is about 10ish days away from turning off their oil pipes. If that happens, it’ll either cost too much to turn back on or it won’t turn on due to irreparable damage. Not gonna pretend to be an expert in all this, but if the above is true, there’s a chance this is over soon enough with a deal in favor of the US
Diesel $6 jet A headed to the moon and has several airlines on life support Pentagon estimates 6 MONTHS to clear the Hormuz if the Pentagon’s estimate is true deep global recession becomes the base case scenario with a global depression a concerningly high probability |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4029452)
Iran has “shut-in expertise” and has handled this before without permanent field damage in most cases. The patience of the IRGC far exceeds the patience of everyday Americans who were already stretched pre-war. The IRGC are well aware of:
Diesel $6 jet A headed to the moon and has several airlines on life support Pentagon estimates 6 MONTHS to clear the Hormuz if the Pentagon’s estimate is true deep global recession becomes the base case scenario with a global depression a concerningly high probability |
Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer
(Post 4029463)
We should book mark this post and come back to it in a year. Similar doom and gloom was said regarding the tariffs. Is it possible? Sure. I think it’s unlikely though
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