Skyhigh...very true. As I said before, I make more money from a couple of small side ventures I run than what I make flying 767s across the pond for Delta. If 2012 contract does not show significant gains, I will leave for full time business or fly for an airliner abroad where I make more and cost of living is much lower.

Airlines will lose out on a lot of good pilots in years to come the way things are going. They will not be able to attract an elite pilot group. I have given my best to the airline industry during the last decade. I have zero checkride failures, never required re-training, never had to see a chief pilot for any kind of issues on my part, never had a mis-trip and have never even once called in sick during my entire airline career. (I've never shown up for work sick either). But I have not been rewarded enough for my efforts. If I put half that effort into my side business I would be a multi-millionaire now. I will soon join others who vote with their feet if the next contract does not show a significant improvement....I will definitely leave with a heavy heart...because I enjoy airline flying.

 

Only if we let them Skyhigh...only if we let them.

That is why the 1500 hr rule is so important to the US airline pilot industry. With 1500 hrs, you can't waltz even into a regional airline turboprop with 250 hours. If 1500hr rule goes through, you need to pay your dues as a flight instructor, freight pilot or military before you see an airline cockpit. Pilots will not accept $20,000 per year wages at regionals for long if that happens. Regionals will lose the cost savings at the flight deck level soon. More flying will go to majors as a result. The overall supply will be curbed significantly....after all the requirement is going up 6 times the current levels. Then...supply and demand. Flight deck salaries will significantly climb.

However, even our own union is not supporting the 1500 hr rule. Most of the memebrship wants the 1500 written in stone...but leadership does not. So we will have to wait and see how this pans out. We could regain the past glory...we have the tools at our disposal. But we have to play our cards right. We are our own biggest enemy in this fight...it should not be like that.

 

From my perspective the 1500 hour rule will only serve to eliminate pilots with self gained experience and create an excuse for the multi crew license to the airlines.

The cry to congress will be "there are not enough pilots" then congress will grant an exemption to airline run pilot academies that hire from zero and pay them dirt to fly for the mainline.

Skyhigh

 

You are speculating that the 1500 hr could lead to 'multi crew licensing'. The whole purpose of 1500hr ruling is to have pilots with real life experiences in the airler cockpits. MPL ttally goes against that concept. Have you listened to the congressional hearings following the Colgan crash? It is easier to increase required qualifications than to decrease it. Politicians definitely won't like getting a deadly crash blamed on their policy. The 1500hr requirement definitely does not eliminate pilots with self gained experience. I and many thousands of pilots joined airliners with thousands of hours of 'self-gained-experience'.

AMA has curbed the doctor supply pretty good. My neighbour had to wait 2 months to see an Oncologist recently to rule out a potential cancer condition. By the time he finally got to see him, the situation moved to stage 4. I don't see the congress stepping in to increase doctor supply.

In the worst case, look at what we have right now. Puppy mills like like ATP, ERAU, American Flyers etc....250 hrs from zero to hero. If you look at the few countries where MPL is being proposed, you'll see that MPL is a more time consuming and expensive process compared to the current 250 hr deal. So MPL is not the going to break the pilot leverage.

If you think 1500hr is going to get airliners scrambling for MPL, what makes you think 500hr rule does not?

The 1500hr rule should be used to gain maximum leverage....we will fight MPL later if and when it comes to that. Last time we negotiated pay away for pensions, we not only lost 40% pay....they still furloughed and cut away pension. We should never again negotiate away a single thing we have for a future promise or threat.

 

Just where are new guys supposed to get 1500 hours anyway? Another issue is that times have changed some for new pilots. We are loosing our GA layer. I was the lowest time guy in my regional class with 3800 hours. Today however we do not have as many piston cargo jobs and instructing is drying up fast. New pilots are going to have a hard time reaching 1500 hours

I flew with plenty of guys from Europe who started at their career airline with zero time. The military does essentially the same thing. In less than a decade the average middle class college student will not be able to afford to pay for their own training. The airlines will step in with an exemption from congress to start their own cadet program like they have overseas.

I wish I could share your enthusiasm but I just can not see how our situation is going to reverse itself. Along with the regionals taking the domestic market and low cost carriers dividing up the rest there are even bigger threats on the horizon. In short if you are in your 30's you could have as long as 30 more years in the profession. That is a long time for it to get much worse.

Don't quit your side job. I might just save you one day.

Skyhigh

 

Trust me...I won't. It pays me pretty good....more than what I make at Delta. Too bad I have to have an exit strategy working for one of the premier carriers in N. America.

Good luck to both you and me. I hope things get better...it can't get any worse (at least for me...I will walk if I don't see a substantial improvement in 2012).

 

Disagree with the fact that DL will not have trouble finding pilots. Today is not the problem. What happens when AA, FedEx, UAL, USAir, UPS, Alaska,..... all see retirements?

 

Every Year the US cranks out an average of 8500 new commercial pilots. Each one could have as much as 40 year careers ahead of them. Over the last ten years there has been a huge building backlog of pilots waiting for jobs. Lately things have dropped off a bit but production can resume in a blink of an eye. Six months is all it takes to currently become legal to serve as a pilot in a part 121 airliner.

The legacy airlines need to hire thousands upon thousands just to make a dent in the population of the waiting.

Someone here said that SWA received 10,000 qualified applications from sitting part 121 captains with 1000 hours of turbine PIC and three internal recommendations. There are literary tens of thousands sidelined guys out there with jet time.

Skyhigh

 

Feel free to correct my numbers.....
65 retirements:
CAL/UAL: 10,385 by 2031
DL: 11,290 by 2037
AMR: 8,281 by 2029
30,000 in approx 20 yrs. Just for DL,AMR,UAL/CAL.

 

This is why the airline industry is currently on borrowed time. They have the best and brightest now (essentially trapped), but that will soon change. The majority I have flown with didn't even consider aviation until college. They chose it because of a combination of lifestyle, QOL, pay etc..The job offered a lot. Not the case today and therefore those at the top of their class will not be coming into this field. I don't think management has a clue what is coming. They fail to realize the kind of person needed to run a safe and smooth operation. He/She is not a C student, who gets a B in aviation mgt. Absolutely amazing and sad at the same time that they think so little of our profession.