Majors not hiring prior to a known shortage..
11-27-2011, 01:00 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: 7er
Posts: 1,673
Never has been and never will be a shortage of pilots. ERAU and UND and other pilot mills continue to produce endless supplies of SJS Lemurs. Majors & Legacys will always have a very ample pilot pool to draw from. Regionals may have to scrape the bottom of the barrel to fill classes but they will manage to do so. Further airline consolidation will also decrease the number of cockpit jobs there are at major/legacy carriers. If you are naive enough to believe there is going to be a shortage than you are just setting yourself up for future disappointment.
11-27-2011, 01:28 PM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 691
Originally Posted by fullflank
I was just in Daytona beach, ER planes every where, that place was jumping. Theres tons of people in the pipe line, despite what these flight schools and aopa analysts would have you believe. With regards to not preparing for a shortage, they know some thing we dont. Age 70 etc.
11-27-2011, 01:50 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,233
I don't think there will be shortage of pilots in the US. The GA community is too big.
The airlines will simply drop their minimums after lobbing any laws stopping it. And pay even less if they want due to economic hardship.
Sims will go to 2 months, then flying in the jumpseat for 2 months, IOE will go to 300 hours if it has to. People will line up, it has been done before.
United had 300 hour mins in the early 60's. We will see it again.. There will be no selection, but shortage is a stretch.
IMHO.
The airlines will simply drop their minimums after lobbing any laws stopping it. And pay even less if they want due to economic hardship.
Sims will go to 2 months, then flying in the jumpseat for 2 months, IOE will go to 300 hours if it has to. People will line up, it has been done before.
United had 300 hour mins in the early 60's. We will see it again.. There will be no selection, but shortage is a stretch.
IMHO.
11-27-2011, 01:57 PM
#24
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Don't believe in a true shortage. As noted, the Middle East carriers have really high requirements, but if they lowered them somewhat, I'd bet their hiring problem would be greatly lowered. And of course the majors have literal STACKS of resumes from folks with many working years ahead of them.
As far as flight schools, they do seem much more quiet than 10 years ago. Enough to produce a shortage? No. Just a slow down in the flood of SJS-ers.
As far as flight schools, they do seem much more quiet than 10 years ago. Enough to produce a shortage? No. Just a slow down in the flood of SJS-ers.
11-27-2011, 02:14 PM
#25
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 757/767 FO
Posts: 105
Originally Posted by Wheel Landing
Mark My Words:
I've got a theory about all this non-hiring just before the shortage. There WILL be a massive shortage due to all the factors we are familiar with. The major airlines will have purposely held off hiring in anticipation of this. Then there WILL be a major disruption to the "flow of commerce" and then they will go to congress "Needing relief" from regulatory hurdles. Then hold on to your hat that they want us to wear to look professional. Everything will be on the table. They will be asking for congressional relief from scope clauses, the FO ATP rule, any new rest requirements that might or might not be in place at that point, and (here is the big one) CABOTAGE! That's right. They will be going after the entire U.S. Airline industry in favor of using other country's airlines to do the flying. They will claim that there was no way they could have predicted these pilot shortages and could not possibly absorb the costs of all this training with out going bankrupt. All along, they will have purposly painted themselves into a corner while maintaining that they were all just too short sighted, stupid and dumb to realise this was coming.
Dumb? ...Dumb like a Fox!
Thoughts?
I've got a theory about all this non-hiring just before the shortage. There WILL be a massive shortage due to all the factors we are familiar with. The major airlines will have purposely held off hiring in anticipation of this. Then there WILL be a major disruption to the "flow of commerce" and then they will go to congress "Needing relief" from regulatory hurdles. Then hold on to your hat that they want us to wear to look professional. Everything will be on the table. They will be asking for congressional relief from scope clauses, the FO ATP rule, any new rest requirements that might or might not be in place at that point, and (here is the big one) CABOTAGE! That's right. They will be going after the entire U.S. Airline industry in favor of using other country's airlines to do the flying. They will claim that there was no way they could have predicted these pilot shortages and could not possibly absorb the costs of all this training with out going bankrupt. All along, they will have purposly painted themselves into a corner while maintaining that they were all just too short sighted, stupid and dumb to realise this was coming.
Dumb? ...Dumb like a Fox!
Thoughts?
Craig
11-27-2011, 05:20 PM
#26
Custom User Title
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,270
Just a couple of thoughts after reading these replies....
I think the word 'shortage' is being misused or misunderstood. Many people are replying that there never was nor will be a shortage of pilots. I agree completely with that.
What there will be is an increased *demand* for pilots at the regional level to replace those who leave for the seats opening at the majors due to retirement attrition.
It isn't about a lack of pilots.
I think the word 'shortage' is being misused or misunderstood. Many people are replying that there never was nor will be a shortage of pilots. I agree completely with that.
What there will be is an increased *demand* for pilots at the regional level to replace those who leave for the seats opening at the majors due to retirement attrition.
It isn't about a lack of pilots.
11-27-2011, 07:58 PM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: Office Chair
Posts: 629
The pilot certification numbers for the last 10 years are graphed here for reference:
AOPA Online: General Aviation Trends
Here are the trends for the last 2 full years:
PILOT CERTIFICATION ISSUANCES
2009 / 2010 / % Change / Change
Student 55,786 56,658 2% 872
Private 19,893 14,977 -25% -4,916
Commercial 11,383 8,056 -29% -3,327
ATP 3,113 3,072 -1% -41
CFI 4,348 4,486 3% 138
Instrument 25,337 17,603 -31% -7,734
AOPA Online: General Aviation Trends
Here are the trends for the last 2 full years:
PILOT CERTIFICATION ISSUANCES
2009 / 2010 / % Change / Change
Student 55,786 56,658 2% 872
Private 19,893 14,977 -25% -4,916
Commercial 11,383 8,056 -29% -3,327
ATP 3,113 3,072 -1% -41
CFI 4,348 4,486 3% 138
Instrument 25,337 17,603 -31% -7,734
11-28-2011, 04:39 AM
#28
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: MD-80 FO
Posts: 91
This is a great thread and excellent discussion. I agree all the posts that declare that there isn't and never will be a pilot "shortage".
Management has either made things happen or some outside factor happened to negate any true shortage.
9-11: All the majors who only recently got the best contracts that any of us will ever see got to use force majeur to begin furloughing. No pilot shortage.
9-11 led to all the bankruptcies which not only drastically reduced the awesome pay... but massive work work rule reductions (less pilots needed) and additional scope relief (more outsourcing of 70 seat jobs = less major jobs and no hiring).
Then the age 65 rule. This normally would have just delayed the shortage for 5 years until approximately this christmas but......
Then we had MERGER MANIA!!!!! This has had the biggest affect on our beloved pilot shortage.
The numbers showed that Continental had the most retirements and due to the merger with UAL.... ALL of those retirements are now offset by all the furloughs at UAL. Even this being said.... UAL/CAL does not see a need to hire until 2020. This projection takes into account a few other things.... like all of the outsourcing UAL did with 100 seat aircraft and eliminating the 737 fleet as well as reduction in route overlap between the two carriers.
You can find similar themes in other mergers like DAL NWA, but this appears to have the BIGGEST affect on the lack of hiring.
Looking at age 65 retirement numbers the next big explosive period of retirements occurs in the 2020's. My guess is that managements are not concerned with pilot hiring 8 years from now or could have ideas behind making the "next" pilot shortage non-existant as well.
Management has either made things happen or some outside factor happened to negate any true shortage.
9-11: All the majors who only recently got the best contracts that any of us will ever see got to use force majeur to begin furloughing. No pilot shortage.
9-11 led to all the bankruptcies which not only drastically reduced the awesome pay... but massive work work rule reductions (less pilots needed) and additional scope relief (more outsourcing of 70 seat jobs = less major jobs and no hiring).
Then the age 65 rule. This normally would have just delayed the shortage for 5 years until approximately this christmas but......
Then we had MERGER MANIA!!!!! This has had the biggest affect on our beloved pilot shortage.
The numbers showed that Continental had the most retirements and due to the merger with UAL.... ALL of those retirements are now offset by all the furloughs at UAL. Even this being said.... UAL/CAL does not see a need to hire until 2020. This projection takes into account a few other things.... like all of the outsourcing UAL did with 100 seat aircraft and eliminating the 737 fleet as well as reduction in route overlap between the two carriers.
You can find similar themes in other mergers like DAL NWA, but this appears to have the BIGGEST affect on the lack of hiring.
Looking at age 65 retirement numbers the next big explosive period of retirements occurs in the 2020's. My guess is that managements are not concerned with pilot hiring 8 years from now or could have ideas behind making the "next" pilot shortage non-existant as well.
11-28-2011, 04:49 AM
#29
Indian Takeout Driver
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: FAR part 347 (91+121+135)
Posts: 1,566
Originally Posted by FloridaGator
This is a great thread and excellent discussion. I agree all the posts that declare that there isn't and never will be a pilot "shortage".
Management has either made things happen or some outside factor happened to negate any true shortage.
9-11: All the majors who only recently got the best contracts that any of us will ever see got to use force majeur to begin furloughing. No pilot shortage.
9-11 led to all the bankruptcies which not only drastically reduced the awesome pay... but massive work work rule reductions (less pilots needed) and additional scope relief (more outsourcing of 70 seat jobs = less major jobs and no hiring).
Then the age 65 rule. This normally would have just delayed the shortage for 5 years until approximately this christmas but......
Then we had MERGER MANIA!!!!! This has had the biggest affect on our beloved pilot shortage.
The numbers showed that Continental had the most retirements and due to the merger with UAL.... ALL of those retirements are now offset by all the furloughs at UAL. Even this being said.... UAL/CAL does not see a need to hire until 2020. This projection takes into account a few other things.... like all of the outsourcing UAL did with 100 seat aircraft and eliminating the 737 fleet as well as reduction in route overlap between the two carriers.
You can find similar themes in other mergers like DAL NWA, but this appears to have the BIGGEST affect on the lack of hiring.
Looking at age 65 retirement numbers the next big explosive period of retirements occurs in the 2020's. My guess is that managements are not concerned with pilot hiring 8 years from now or could have ideas behind making the "next" pilot shortage non-existant as well.
Management has either made things happen or some outside factor happened to negate any true shortage.
9-11: All the majors who only recently got the best contracts that any of us will ever see got to use force majeur to begin furloughing. No pilot shortage.
9-11 led to all the bankruptcies which not only drastically reduced the awesome pay... but massive work work rule reductions (less pilots needed) and additional scope relief (more outsourcing of 70 seat jobs = less major jobs and no hiring).
Then the age 65 rule. This normally would have just delayed the shortage for 5 years until approximately this christmas but......
Then we had MERGER MANIA!!!!! This has had the biggest affect on our beloved pilot shortage.
The numbers showed that Continental had the most retirements and due to the merger with UAL.... ALL of those retirements are now offset by all the furloughs at UAL. Even this being said.... UAL/CAL does not see a need to hire until 2020. This projection takes into account a few other things.... like all of the outsourcing UAL did with 100 seat aircraft and eliminating the 737 fleet as well as reduction in route overlap between the two carriers.
You can find similar themes in other mergers like DAL NWA, but this appears to have the BIGGEST affect on the lack of hiring.
Looking at age 65 retirement numbers the next big explosive period of retirements occurs in the 2020's. My guess is that managements are not concerned with pilot hiring 8 years from now or could have ideas behind making the "next" pilot shortage non-existant as well.
Airline Pilot Central - Future airline pilot hiring - a Q&A with Louis Smith
I don’t think the U.S. major airlines will have a pilot shortage. Plus, it’s important to define what the term “pilot shortage” means. To me, it’s when companies pay for pilots to get necessary training to become minimally qualified. The major airlines are a long way from that and with a mobile work force and a highly-unionized pilot group, they will offer whatever it takes to attract qualified pilots. It’s a totally different story at the feeder airlines and the foreign carriers. I expect the feeder airlines (regionals) will need to spend money on low-time pilots to reach the minimums, especially with new regulations coming redefining the ATP.
11-28-2011, 05:03 AM
#30
Runs with scissors
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,722
Originally Posted by CE750
yep, even the biggest Koolaid servers, like FltOps.com are saying there will be no shortage at the majors.. only at the regionals, and 2nd tier jobs..
Airline Pilot Central - Future airline pilot hiring - a Q&A with Louis Smith
Airline Pilot Central - Future airline pilot hiring - a Q&A with Louis Smith
That's pretty much what happened last time the Majors were hiring in droves. The RJ guys moved to the Majors, the Cessna guys moved to the RJ's and the FBO's couldn't find enough instructors...
This industry has always been feast or famine, at one time in the mid 80s' the popular 'joke' was, "AA will hire right up until the day they start furloughing..."
That's one reason I wanted to be at Delta, at that time they had NEVER furloughed anyone. That's why the employees bought the first 767 for the company, as a "Thankyou" for not furloughing in the recession of 1981-85, when everyone else was furloughing.
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