Start-Date for pilot shortage ?
05-29-2012, 07:13 AM
#31
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by flybywire44
In 3 years from today I predict that the rest rules & 65 retirements will have the regionals scrambling for pilots. RAA and IATA will then start lobbying for ab initio programs.
I'm not sure that part 121 flying is a growth industry in the next 10 years. One retirement does not equal one new hire. *That's the problem.*
05-29-2012, 07:19 AM
#32
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2010
Posts: 97
Originally Posted by HighSpeedTaxi5
Lets do an unofficial poll. How many pilots are out here willing to work for >$25/hr and sell their first born to get in the right seat of a shiny jet? reply with yes. Don't lie you know who you are.
Now how many pilots are willing to try to stick it to the man make sure Pilots get paid what they deserve?
Now how many pilots are willing to try to stick it to the man make sure Pilots get paid what they deserve?
05-29-2012, 07:26 AM
#33
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
I should add that yesterday NPR had a segment on about the pax flying boom in Asia. They discussed the 10 year increase in flights/pax enplanements. The numbers were impressive. I am not sure how many expats they are hiring. I am also not sure how many people are willing to become ex pats and fly there. They did not discuss the Middle East, but I believe Emirates and Qatar Airways (at least those two) are taking *big airplane orders. Food for thought.
And where is ATP Cliff? That guy always has something positive to say! (which I am not bagging on him for)
And where is ATP Cliff? That guy always has something positive to say! (which I am not bagging on him for)
05-29-2012, 08:24 AM
#34
ALL Days Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 385
Although I am not a 121 pilot I do have a couple of observations to point out that are positive.
-Air travel will increase across the world including the US for years to come. There are just a few life changing events that could slow it down. The population is growing every second that goes by.
-I see lots of talk of consolidation. Airlines may try to shrink but others will just grow in their place(reference above). I know this industry has been hard for a lot of people the 15 years but growth will happen and pay increases will happen to if pilots would learn to stick together and not cut each others throat all the time (novel concept, huh??)
Will we see a pilot shortage? No one knows until it happens! I can see plausable facts from both sides but we do not know the future. I feel we will see movement and demand go up quite a bit from what most of us sub 40 guys have seen in past but no one knows how high. The best thing we as pilots can do is to try to make the future of this industry the best we can. Things in every industry suck some no matter how awesome you might think they are.
-Air travel will increase across the world including the US for years to come. There are just a few life changing events that could slow it down. The population is growing every second that goes by.
-I see lots of talk of consolidation. Airlines may try to shrink but others will just grow in their place(reference above). I know this industry has been hard for a lot of people the 15 years but growth will happen and pay increases will happen to if pilots would learn to stick together and not cut each others throat all the time (novel concept, huh??)
Will we see a pilot shortage? No one knows until it happens! I can see plausable facts from both sides but we do not know the future. I feel we will see movement and demand go up quite a bit from what most of us sub 40 guys have seen in past but no one knows how high. The best thing we as pilots can do is to try to make the future of this industry the best we can. Things in every industry suck some no matter how awesome you might think they are.
05-29-2012, 08:40 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 284
Originally Posted by flybywire44
In 3 years from today I predict that the rest rules & 65 retirements will have the regionals scrambling for pilots. RAA and IATA will then start lobbying for ab initio programs.
How many pilots does an airline need?.... This is always a different answer for every airline. For the most part every airline staffs based on ASM or in more basic terms capacity. In general airlines have staffing model that takes into account the cba of the pilot groups, rest regulations that effect their individual schedules, and training and transitions for pilots moving to different fleet types through the airline.
What happens when a major airlines needs to hire?... They look to the regionals, and the military for the most part. To be hired you generaly need pic turbine and an ATP. Once those they have exausted pic turbine applicants they will the look to turbine pilots of any source... If all of those sources are exausted I don't know what the next step will be.
The more likely scenerio: capacity reductions continue and a regulated supply of pilots will begin to slowly trickle to the majors. Eventually there will be a shortage at the regional level. This will likely come just as massive regional flying reductions begin. You can see Delta has already committed to reducing regional flying. This will continue at all regionals. My guess is if they ever have a situation where demand is more then supply they will simply reduce frequency and increase equipment size.
It is true that there will be a need for pilots, there will be times when pilots are in demand, and there will likely be some contractual gains do to this need. Will they cancel large ammounts of flights becuase of lack of crews? I'm abosulutely sure they wont. There is plenty of pilots in this country, only a few of them choose to work for low paying regionals.
05-29-2012, 11:38 AM
#37
Day puke
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: Out.
Posts: 3,865
Originally Posted by sandlapper223
Don't be silly! The pilot shortage will have occurred when sometime after you are hired and you notice 500 pilots beneath you on the senority list!
05-29-2012, 11:41 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2009
Position: Left seat of a Jet
Posts: 514
Originally Posted by flyingkangaroo
ok I don't know why I am even attempting to answer this...
How many pilots does an airline need?.... This is always a different answer for every airline. For the most part every airline staffs based on ASM or in more basic terms capacity. In general airlines have staffing model that takes into account the cba of the pilot groups, rest regulations that effect their individual schedules, and training and transitions for pilots moving to different fleet types through the airline.
What happens when a major airlines needs to hire?... They look to the regionals, and the military for the most part. To be hired you generaly need pic turbine and an ATP. Once those they have exausted pic turbine applicants they will the look to turbine pilots of any source... If all of those sources are exausted I don't know what the next step will be.
The more likely scenerio: capacity reductions continue and a regulated supply of pilots will begin to slowly trickle to the majors. Eventually there will be a shortage at the regional level. This will likely come just as massive regional flying reductions begin. You can see Delta has already committed to reducing regional flying. This will continue at all regionals. My guess is if they ever have a situation where demand is more then supply they will simply reduce frequency and increase equipment size.
It is true that there will be a need for pilots, there will be times when pilots are in demand, and there will likely be some contractual gains do to this need. Will they cancel large ammounts of flights becuase of lack of crews? I'm abosulutely sure they wont. There is plenty of pilots in this country, only a few of them choose to work for low paying regionals.
How many pilots does an airline need?.... This is always a different answer for every airline. For the most part every airline staffs based on ASM or in more basic terms capacity. In general airlines have staffing model that takes into account the cba of the pilot groups, rest regulations that effect their individual schedules, and training and transitions for pilots moving to different fleet types through the airline.
What happens when a major airlines needs to hire?... They look to the regionals, and the military for the most part. To be hired you generaly need pic turbine and an ATP. Once those they have exausted pic turbine applicants they will the look to turbine pilots of any source... If all of those sources are exausted I don't know what the next step will be.
The more likely scenerio: capacity reductions continue and a regulated supply of pilots will begin to slowly trickle to the majors. Eventually there will be a shortage at the regional level. This will likely come just as massive regional flying reductions begin. You can see Delta has already committed to reducing regional flying. This will continue at all regionals. My guess is if they ever have a situation where demand is more then supply they will simply reduce frequency and increase equipment size.
It is true that there will be a need for pilots, there will be times when pilots are in demand, and there will likely be some contractual gains do to this need. Will they cancel large ammounts of flights becuase of lack of crews? I'm abosulutely sure they wont. There is plenty of pilots in this country, only a few of them choose to work for low paying regionals.
05-29-2012, 12:14 PM
#39
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 11,993
When Orvil and Wilbur got ready for the first flight of a powered aircraft, they flipped a coin to see who would get to fly it.
Airplanes did not even exist yet and there were already twice as many pilots as were needed.
Nothing has changed, except for folks stopped crashing, smoking and drinking to excess ... so now pilots live waaaay too long. You know, we can miss you if you never leave ... .
Airplanes did not even exist yet and there were already twice as many pilots as were needed.
Nothing has changed, except for folks stopped crashing, smoking and drinking to excess ... so now pilots live waaaay too long. You know, we can miss you if you never leave ... .
05-29-2012, 12:27 PM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 284
Originally Posted by bozobigtop
If this is what you think will happen I say good luck buddy!
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Jason4275
Flight Schools and Training
23
03-17-2016 07:16 PM
