I thought there was an uproar over the new DL TA about reducing DL manning. I am trying to find out what is truly going on, that's why I asked.

 

What he said.
Ain't gonna happen.
Hint: Next time it looks like The Shortage is happening, better cash out your stocks, 'cause pilot hiring frenzy ALWAYS predicts the impending economic crash. (Or in one case the President bypasses due process and with the stroke of a pen increases retirement age 5 years - didn't see that one coming, did ya?...)
The forty-some years I've seen has always been like that. There's always something that derails it, some sinister (airline lobbyists getting the laws changed) but mostly just economics.
Moral of the story: Don't bet on it. (Bet against it and you'll probably get a lot richer.)

 

Uhh..you haven't heard? Shortage cancelled!

 

Yeah, and the U.S. has essentially been in a sustained bull market since the 1930's, and that's all that anyone has observed. If the lessons of finance and history can teach us anything, people weigh the data of the past too heavily, and turns in the market occur exactly when everyone is seemingly in consensus that the trend will continue.
There will be a pilot shortage eventually, but it'll be as a result of forces greater than those simply generated by the aviation industry.

 

2) As a result of the new ATP requirement for pilots in part 121 operations, what will be the impact on pilot supply for part 121 operations? For part 135 operations? For part 141 pilot schools? For Part 142 training centers?

The new ATP requirements will adversely impact the staffing needs of all air carrier operations. Since October 2010, ExpressJet has hired approximately 790 pilots. The rules currently proposed would have eliminated almost 400 pilots that ExpressJet hired. That equates to the staffing of approximately 40 aircraft that could have potentially been parked on the ramp due to lack of staffing. With the Aug. 1, 2013 First Officer ATP requirement rapidly approaching, ExpressJet has been adjusting hiring requirements to meet the requirements of the law. In March 2012, the airline ran out of applicants who had the qualifications that meet public law 111-216. This has occurred 17 months prior to the enactment date. It is obvious that a pilot supply shortage has already occurred and will only deepen as retirements and other regulatory enactments occur. It should also be considered that pilots, who are already burdened with high debt loads exiting training, will now have to come up with additional funding to bridge the gap in flight time to be qualified for air carrier employment.

This is from one regional. Due to the new rules this is what is happening now. There is a shortage in the works now. This come from a company web site.....

 

***??

So the recession in the 70s was a bull market??

 

The shortage is already here. I just got a FedEx package from Fred himself! In it was my temporary certificate for a B-777 Type, a blank check made out to Barrett-Jackson, a list of female interns to serve as my personal assistant (with pictures and measurements, of course) AND an MLB 'Golden Ticket', which gets me into any ballgame, anytime, anywhere.

Oh wait, Southwest is at the door now. Looks like they are unloading either a Ferrari or a Maserati off of a truck. Boy, this Shortage is gonna be interesting..........

 

There isn't going to be one. At least for the good jobs. I was told about pilot shortages 20 years ago when I first started college and flight training. The supposed shortage was right around the corner and 20 years later we still have an ample surplus of qualified pilots.

 

It's not necessarily a attempt to reduce manning. Not to the extreme you suggested(or repeated). It's simply a way to utilize reserves more, particularly for the Wide Body fleets that have 5-16 day trips. You see, at Delta a pilots line value fluctuates based on the companies usage of a pilots respective fleet throughout the year. It's referred to as an ALV or average line value. There is a contractual window(72-84 hours)that must be met. Example- In a slow month like October the ALV is typically 72 hours. In a busy month like June it is 82 hours. Under the current rules a reserve pilot is not contractually obligated to fly past the ALV, so once he/she is with in 2 hours of said ALV he/she is done. No more flying required. This "supposedly" creates an issue with the WB fleets(particularly the 757/767 since it's domestic and international), as WB trips 6-14 days can be worth 35-80 hours of credit. If a reserve guy has vacation, or has done a few domestic trips and a long international trip pops up it will likely cause him to exceed the ALV and therefore he is under no obligation to accept it. He may take it if he wishes to break guarantee, and would be paid accordingly(not to exceed 15 hours above the ALV).

Under the new proposal, as long as he is under the ALV he can be assigned a trip not to exceed ALV + 15. Essentially the TA takes away the option to turn down a trip that causes one to break guarantee. This is considered by many to be concessionary.

 

I think I added an additional zero (3000 versus 300) and there went my math. I hope I didn't come off as knowing everything, because I obviously don't. None the less, the reduction in the pilot force that I thought I saw seems to be at odds with this shortage talk. Additionally Delta seems to reducing its regional pilot staffing. Gosh, I *really* hope, for all our sakes, Delta starts hiring soon, and the 717s are growth, not net neutral to the Delta fleet.

My personal opinion is that the economy is too weak, and until very recently, oil too high for a pilot shortage/slow down. I'd love for the supply/demand equation work out in favor of pilots....still holding my breath for that

Thanks all for your responses, regards to everybody.