???

I understand you've always had a negative view of AA, but why would you make the comment that AA "will be horrendous for a long time??"

If I recall correctly, DL merged with NW and turned itself into a powerhouse. So did UA with CO. AA has very similar assets that pre-merger DL and UA had, and we have an excellent chance at not only replicating what DL and UA pulled off but even surpassing them.

AA's route structure and assets have long been a gold mine. Under the wrong management (like what we've had), it just sits and rots. Under the right management, it gets unleashed and prospers. AA has a lot of catching up and growing to compensate for the years of shrinkage, and Parker & Co are gonna have to take full advantage of that to realize the benefits of the merger and I fully expect them to.

I'm not saying it's gonna be smooth sailing... we will undoubtedly have more than a few hiccups and disruptions with the integration of everything... but once it gets ironed out, I believe AA will be a kick a$$ place to work within the next few years. DL and UA also went through a period of growing pains after their merger... so will we, but in the end this will be a decent gig once again.

 

And I want to to thank everyone for participating in the poll. The question of first year pay comes up more often than not and there are lots of opinions.

Me personally - if I was at a regional with offers from the Big 3 in hand, 1st year pay would probably be a few notches down my priorities list: pay at all 3 airlines evens out over the span of a career. Number One, or close to it, would be, "Where do I want to live and which airline has a base there?"

I do see quite a few opinions centered around which airline has the best management (no question about it: Delta), and believe it or not, that would also not be in my top priorities - for the simple reason that "best managed" today can change in a heartbeat.

 

It's not a given that any of our mergers will ultimately prove successful, but I think Delta has cleared the major hurdles. Still, you shouldn't have any romantic ideas about what that means. Everyone made sacrifices, and it's not easy going through a SLI. The best you can hope in those, is for yours not to be unbearable.

There is no guarantee that we'll ultimately deliver the kind of product that wows the passenger. I don't spend much time in the back, so I'm not sure Inflight is actually winning hearts and minds.

You said "with the right management", and it's not clear United has it, and it seems doubtful to me that American will. There are more than a few items there to be ironed out.

That being said, the networks at UAL and AMR are going to be powerhouses, no question about it. They'll thrive, or fail, on the employees, however. Nothing is a given there, especially not with Parker and his team, especially with them trying to take over a much bigger airline.

 

I personally feel upgrade taken at first opportunity will be less than ten years. Including 2013-2023 retirements at the combined company hits roughly 43% of the total list. A lot of the total list do not actively fly and upgrades typically go beyond the 50% of the entire numbered list for multiple reasons. Throw in guys staying in the right seat and so forth. Upgrade based on retirements only is extremely conservative and from my past experience with worse case scenarios, actual upgrade still is sooner than predicted. That obviously does not consider company contraction.

 

Yes, chock me up as anti-AA. I think I have good reasons for my bias.

But, attempting to put that aside, there's no denying that the TWA/AA combo was a mess, and now you're jumping right back into a similar briar patch with USA East/West. Good luck.

APA is dysfunctional. Period.

AA management, and yes I know it's all going to change soon (hopefully for the better, but does anybody really know?), has been abysmal. The company has not competed in any sense of the word. Even if the new management team is The Second Coming, they are starting from a competitive position far behind the others.

I know the poll question was about 1st year pay. I think all the majors (as was pointed out by somebody else) have similarly rosy prospects in terms of potential seniority gains due to the currently ancient pilot corps. I'm trying to point out that the work environment ought to be considered (beyond pay and projected seniority), and on that score I think AA has a lot to be desired.

I appreciate others' ability to view everything in a positive light, but in the case of AA I think that kind of viewpoint ignores recent history.

 

What you may be forgetting is not growth or stagnation, but potential shrinkage. The combined DAL/NWA list shrank by over 2,000 or so from the merger until now. Historically, a merger has never been 1+1 = 2, but rather something less due to contract productivity "enhancements" and route overlap efficiencies.

 

We have hundreds (minimum) of guys who back-bid or remained as FO's because they have no desire, or no need, to fly CA.

The 777 FO's at DFW are dominated by guys who could be flying CA 10 or 15 years ago.

There are even a large number of narrowbody FO's in the same boat.

I agree, retirement numbers alone mean little. It's a complex dynamic based upon domicile, outside income, etc.

 

A simple search of the NWA/DAL Seniority List Integration award shows 12434 pilots on the combined list.

Another quick, & seemingly simple search of the current (Nov. '13) seniority list shows 11653 pilots.

A difference of 781 pilots. Where, may I ask, are you getting the numbers for the statement which I bolded above?

 

Does everything have to be DPA vs ALPA with you?

 

Yes.....uh, no. I deleted the (DPA) statement in my post. Just confused how a 781 pilot difference equals the posted "2000 or more."

Now, back to the "why IHSWA" thread.