Marcin is an IOE CKA....

Who cares, now... moving on......

 

I believe you, given the fact he became an IOE captain last week...

 

According to my chainsaw math, and applying the appropriate scope language, by YE 2015 UAX will have 240 70/76 seat aircraft (from the January 22, 2015 fleet plan below, in bold are the 70/76 seater numbers) and the limit is 255. January 1, 2016 it can go up to 325 ONLY if a new small narrow body aircraft is added to mainline. There is also a bunch of other ratio language to get to that 325 relating to 50 seaters being parked, etc. but that's the basic limit.

January 22, 2015 UAL fleet plan:

Fleet Plan
As of January 22, 2015, the Company’s fleet plan was as follows:
YE 2014 23 74 14 51 94
YE 2015 21 74 25 51 81
FY ∆
(2) - 11 - (13)
B747-400
B777-200
B787-8/9
B767-300/400
B757-200/300
B737-700/800/900 283 A319/A320 152
Total Mainline Aircraft 691
YE 2014 Q400 28
308 25 152 - 712 21
YE 2015 FY ∆ 20 (8)
Q300 55- Q200 1616-
ERJ-145 ERJ-135 CRJ200 CRJ700 EMB 120 EMB 170 EMB 175
Total Regional Aircraft
245 192 (53) 9 - (9) 68 50 (18)
115 100 (15) 9 - (9)
38 38 -
33 82 49
566 503 (63)

UPA section 1-C-1-g:

1-C-1-g Number of 76-Seat Aircraft
If the Company adds New Small Narrowbody aircraft to the Company Fleet, then on or after January 1, 2016, the number of permitted 76-Seat Aircraft may increase from 153 (as permitted under Section 1-C-1-a-(2)-(c)) up to a total of 223 76-Seat Aircraft, and the number of permitted 76/70-Seat Aircraft may increase from 255 (as permitted under Section 1-C-1-a-(2)-(c)) up to a total of 325 76/70-Seat Aircraft, except that once the number of 76/70-Seat Aircraft exceeds 255, then the number of 70-Seat Aircraft may not be more than 102. 76-Seat Aircraft (above 153 such Aircraft) may be added on a one 76- Seat Aircraft for each one and one quarter New Small Narrowbody Aircraft (1:1.25) ratio (rounded to the closest integer). In addition, in the event more than 153 76-Seat Aircraft are in United Express Flying, the Company shall remove from United Express Flying a number of 50-Seat Aircraft determined as follows:
1. “FSFC” is the number of 50-Seat Aircraft in United Express Flying on the date that the 154th 76-Seat Aircraft enters United Express Flying.
2. Subtract 125 from FSFC.
3. Divide the number resulting from step 2 by seventy (70). This results in a factor “X”
rounded to the second decimal place.
Page 4
4. For each 76-Seat Aircraft added to United Express Flying above 153, remove from United Express Flying a number of 50-Seat Aircraft no less than X, with the resulting number of 50-Seat Aircraft to be removed, rounded to the closest integer.
5. Example 1: If the number of 50-Seat Aircraft in United Express Flying is 334, then FSFC-125 equals 209; when 209 is divided by seventy (70), then X = 2.99
6. Example 2: If the number of 50-Seat Aircraft in United Express Flying is 488, then FSFC-125 equals 363; when 363 is divided by seventy (70), then X = 5.19.
For the phrase “rounded to the closest integer,” in step 4, the values .1 to .4 shall be rounded down to the next lower whole number and the values .5 to .9 shall be rounded up to the next higher whole number.
1-C-1-g-(1) If on January 1, 2016, or any succeeding January 1 thereafter, the number of 50-Seat Aircraft in United Express Flying exceeds the maximum permitted number, the Company shall require United Express Carriers that engage in United Express Flying to suspend or cease operations on a sufficient number of 50-Seat Aircraft or 76-Seat Aircraft to comply with these requirements within sixty (60) days and to remain in compliance thereafter. The Company shall be excused from compliance with the provisions of this Section 1-C-1-g-(1) in the event a Circumstance Beyond the Company’s Control is the cause of such non-compliance

 

Nope, they would have to park more CR7's to get more Ejets, which is a possibility. Having a few thousand hours of CRJ time I remember it best for its flight deck ergonomics, not so much for it's comfortable passenger cabin. The Ejet is more airbus/737 like, and they should be at mainline but that shipped sailed long ago.

Our scope also contains a "one way check valve" for the 50 seaters, not that anyone is making them anymore, so once a hull leaves the fleet they can't replace it with another one. Also, as they get more 76 seat aircraft, above 153, block hour limits off UAL narrow body block hours really start to constrict.

Long term (5-10 years), my guess is that UAL purges all CR2's, E145's, and most CR7's for an almost exclusive Ejet UAX fleet. If you're not at Mesa, RAH, Skywest, or Commutair (Q200/300 in the northeast) then you probably won't be part of the UAX portfolio. Of those 4 carriers, Skywest's UAX footprint will shrink dramatically with all the 50 seat feed they currently provide.

 

I'm not sure about getting rid of the CRJ7s. On the Mesa side over at IAD they have started putting wifi on those.

 

I think the Mesa CR7s are some of the oldest CR7s in the UAX feed and like you said with WIFI being added they aren't going anywhere soon..

 

Skywest was the first to operate the CR7 for UA back in '03. According to the UAX fleet plan 15 CR7's will be parked by the end of '15.

 

I doubt they will actually park those 15 planes. The capacity will be around, they just may not be flown by SkyWest. I would say that it is very probable that capacity will be flown by a lower bidder than SkyWest such as GoJet or Mesa. I'm not sure if those planes are leased by United or SkyWest, so that could make things more complicated. Or maybe United will want to trade those planes in for CRJ-900's or an E-Jet product. Either way, I seriously doubt United will leave large RJ capacity on the table.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

SkyWest owns or leases all of their CRJ 700s for United. But a lot of them do come off contract this year. No one seems to have an idea if they will be renewed or not.

Also its not really who is the lowest bidder these days, its about performance and who can actually deliver on performance and can staff.

 

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