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04-08-2018 | 07:16 PM

#181

ZeroTT

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TallFlyer

Even if the economy tanks, an airline that’s retiring a third of its pilot group in the next 6-7 years most likely won’t need to furlough; they’ll just meter hiring.

If the economy tanks and hiring at UAL, SW, DL, AA, FDX, UPS, etc all "meter" then both attrition from PSA and flows to AA will slow and time to flow will be much higher.

04-09-2018 | 03:40 AM

#182

ajkc114

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MaCrOs

A third of that number are FOs who were in training.

Did they leave, or did they fail out?

04-09-2018 | 07:56 AM

#183

chrisreedrules

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From: CRJ FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZeroTT

If the economy tanks and hiring at UAL, SW, DL, AA, FDX, UPS, etc all "meter" then both attrition from PSA and flows to AA will slow and time to flow will be much higher.

The benefit of the flow agreements at the AA WOs is that if hiring is metered at mainline a little bit due to some unforeseen circumstance, the flows will essentially make up the bulk of the classes and there will be essentially zero off the street hiring at AA. But as stated above, it would take something grievous to really halt anything at this point. AA can’t afford to stop training due to the massive retirements.

04-09-2018 | 08:25 AM

#184

ZeroTT

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Even if AA keeps taking 10/month, current flow times are dependent on other places taking 10+ per month also. 20 total departures per month will move through 1680 people in 7 years. If everyone upstream of PSA stops hiring, flow times could go well over a decade even if AA doesn’t change.

04-09-2018 | 09:06 AM

#185

chrisreedrules

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From: CRJ FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZeroTT

And? If everyone’s hiring slows to a trickle, it would still be better to be at an AA WO because at least what attrition and movement you will experience will still be off the top of the seniority list. Other airlines will simply stagnate.

04-09-2018 | 11:38 AM

#186

ZeroTT

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chrisreedrules

And ... The original question was "what will flow times be" and the answer is that they are highly sensitive to the overall hiring environment and it's not hard to construct a scenario where flow times go over 10 years.