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Old 04-08-2018 | 09:51 AM
  #171  
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Originally Posted by captande
Well that’s disappointing
It's just initial (first) month. It'll pick up from there.
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Old 04-08-2018 | 10:24 AM
  #172  
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Originally Posted by MaCrOs
Attrition is picking up - 39 pilots left from April to May seniority list. A third of that number are FOs who were in training.

PHL base - 11 R1 lines
ORF base - 9 R1 lines

Are these R1 numbers the initial amount of R1 slots? And would that be expected to increase over the next few months? I start training next month and am looking at ORF as my base. Thanks!
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Old 04-08-2018 | 10:34 AM
  #173  
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Originally Posted by CSFletch
Are these R1 numbers the initial amount of R1 slots? And would that be expected to increase over the next few months? I start training next month and am looking at ORF as my base. Thanks!
Yes
Yes

The new bases will likely grow in the next several months and also undergo some seniority shakeouts. Hard to predict what it will look like for a May '18 hire.
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Old 04-08-2018 | 10:50 AM
  #174  
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Last month's most Jr Flow DOH: Sep 2009
This month's most Jr Flow DOH: Apr 2011
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Old 04-08-2018 | 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT
Yes
Yes

The new bases will likely grow in the next several months and also undergo some seniority shakeouts. Hard to predict what it will look like for a May '18 hire.
Thanks for the information. Good Lord willing it will be a brief stay on Reserve.
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Old 04-08-2018 | 01:35 PM
  #176  
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Originally Posted by TallFlyer
Last month's most Jr Flow DOH: Sep 2009
This month's most Jr Flow DOH: Apr 2011
I’ll start getting excited when I see those 2014 flow numbers...
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Old 04-08-2018 | 01:56 PM
  #177  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
I’ll start getting excited when I see those 2014 flow numbers...
Spring of next year probably.
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Old 04-08-2018 | 04:02 PM
  #178  
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What are you forecasting for a new hire? I dont think 6-7 years is realistic. Have a friend coming up with her R-ATP mins and thinking of PSA for ORF base. Lives in PHF, so it's an easy drive.
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Old 04-08-2018 | 05:27 PM
  #179  
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Originally Posted by blackhawk88
What are you forecasting for a new hire? I dont think 6-7 years is realistic. Have a friend coming up with her R-ATP mins and thinking of PSA for ORF base. Lives in PHF, so it's an easy drive.
Flow times are most strongly dependent on how many people leave for other airlines (or McDonald's or heaven or anyplace else). If the economy stays strong and every major is vacuuming the regionals clean to replace retirees, it could come below 6 years.

If the economy tanks and AA furloughs ... it could be a loooong time.
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Old 04-08-2018 | 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT
If the economy tanks and AA furloughs ... it could be a loooong time.
Even if the economy takes, an airline that’s retiring a third of its pilot group in the next 6-7 years most likely won’t need to furlough; they’ll just meter hiring.
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