Which predictions have I made that have been incorrect? The airlines have received 3 rounds of support from the federal government. The government bought stability with taxpayer money. But it will end. And when it does, there will be 2 major challenges facing all 3 legacy airlines which are now incredibly leveraged... 1) Business travel. 2) International travel. We have not yet begun to see any real industry shakeup. But it’s coming.

My guess is that we’ll see more demand for business travel in 2022. And international likely won’t be “wide open” in the way we saw in 2019, until 2024. So the challenge is going to be revenue until then. There’s only so many pieces of the domestic leisure pie.

PSA has been offered increased block hour opportunities but have thus far been unable unable to respond to those opportunities... For reasons I won’t go into on a public forum.

And hiring? They’re gambling on something. I won’t say what, but it’s a gamble. Hopefully for all of us it pays off.

As for AAG, go read the most recent 10K. They are absurdly leveraged. And they are doing things that can be said to be positioning themselves for a Ch11 filing... Namely, paying down their government loans to reduce restrictions and creating a large cash position. Bankruptcy is a business and it costs a lot of money. Not to mention the cash floors certain creditors have imposed as part of their contracts with AAG.

I’m not worried in the least bit. We have no control. But to act like everything is peachy keen is strange to me. Things haven’t begun to change yet and everyone acts like we’ve turned the corner. With the virus? Perhaps. With the legacy segment of the industry? I don’t think so.

Here's some numbers to consider re furlough returns:

~720 furloughed. Recalls from furlough were offered six return periods to bid for: 1st & last halves of Jan, Feb, & Mar. So all recalls are on property for April. My spreadsheet comparing furlough vs currently employed pilots shows about 120 of those furloughed are no longer in the system for April ie after the last return period. I can only presume those people have resigned or declined to accept recall.

Also we are told that there have been more resignations that expected. Even the more senior of the furloughed have jumped up the seniority ranks, so the resignations aren't just from furloughees (is that even a word? Oh well. It is now...).

Sometime ago, I read somewhere (so take it with whatever degree of confidence you like) that AA has a clause in scope that lets them ignore some scope limitations for a limited period (12 or 18 months, or thereabouts) during extreme times as a force majeure exception. Rumour and some media reporting is that national travel is expected to rebound quickly, and international travel rather more slowly and possibly with a delayed start and limited destinations.

So to my way of thinking, throwing as much domestic flying at the regionals as possible for the next year or less would make sense until a route can support the larger capacity mainline equipment. Meanwhile mainline pay is protected by the Covid bills so little cost to AAG while operating routes profitably. As pax numbers return over the next year, bring the booming routes back to mainline and keep the remaining low pax routes with the regionals until they recover too.

Fo video screening
 

Has anyone done the video interview ?

I did it yesterday. It was pretty straight forward.

pm sent .... thanks

pm Sent too..
Thanks

A limited amount of envoy cadets are getting the opportunity to interview, anyone think the number of envoy cadets offered interviews will increase?

yes. Rate of increase is the question

I really hope so, because supposedly they won’t be in a position to hire us at envoy until the end of the year at best.

Could always apply elsewhere off the street.