Most of these "824" must be pretty high longevity.

 

The training cycle argument makes sense, but it's not significant in the case of PSA and Airways. It is probably best for everyone to agree to disagree.

 

"............................

 

Getting back to the PSA new hire thread, it appears new hires are going directly to CLT out of training recently. Holding a line in CLT is about three months after completion of IOE. Reserve is hell on earth at PSA, but three months is bearable.

 

The training argument is exactly why PSA has had turnover in upper manangement lately. They are not having staffing problems because of the new airplanes (The first one just showed up and its not even online yet), or becuase of a shortage. Its because the guys at the top knew that they would have to hire for 117 back in October but thought "If we wait till Feb, think of the money we will save!" AAG didn't see it that way.

 

Going back to my truth in numbers statement:
You are at 700+ pilots. You need 900. With 200 to go, new hires today would not enjoy the quick moves you are putting on here as obvious fodder for them.
Assuming 100 pilot attrition per year (48 flow and the rest other)
Assuming Captain will run around 450 on the list
Assuming 20% of your pilot force(180 pilots)like other regionals right now, is reserve:
-A pilot hired as number 700 would escape reserve and have 2.5 years to upgrade.
-A pilot hired as number 800 would sit reserve for 9 months and upgrade in 3.5 years.
-A pilot hired as number 900 would sit reserve for 18 months and upgrade in 4.5 years.
Assuming you are still getting 50 per month, that means the guy hired 3-4 months from now is not going to have a great deal.
This is also assuming the state of the industry stays the same. If not, well then enjoy what will seem like an eternity on crappy reserve with a crappy contract and pay.

 

The pay and contract is not crappy, I wouldn't call junior FOs crediting 100+ hours with 15 days off crappy. The only crappy part of the contract is the pay caps which won't effect 85% of the pilots. End of contract year 11-12 pay is $97/hr.

 

This is true of any regional that experiences growth. You obviously want to get in on the front of the wave. The "front of the wave" door may be closing pretty soon here at PSA. No argument there. That being said I'm going to put a little more truth in to your numbers.

Please keep in mind that if 20% of our group is on reserve only 10% of those are FOs. The other are captains. So I think you need cut your reserve time estimate by at least 50%.

Your last point with the industry changing is not a PSA-centric problem. Getting stuck on reserve at PSA for years would suck. I know this from first hand experience as I commuted to reserve for just about 2 years. It was bad. It will be bad everywhere though. Reserve sucks at every regional and there is nothing in our contract that makes it any worse than it is anywhere else.

I also think we can both agree that the above scenario with the industry stalling has a slim to almost no chance of happening in the near future.

Cheers.

 

You are absolutely right. I did miss accounting for the Captains. So 5 months reserve and then a year. Not bad. Not great

That is all I am trying to get at. I have my own personal feelings about what you guys have done to the industry, but that aside, coming on here and talking about how great it is for guys "Right Now" is setting up some unknowing new guy for the unexpected. People need to know what they are getting into. Don't be car salesmen with peoples lives.

As far as the slim to none chance - were you around for 9/11? The '89 stock market crash? I am sure you were here for the age 60-65 plus recession of 2008-2010? It always amazes me how easily careers can be stalled out in this industry. Mine is proof positive. I thought I would be at a major in 5 years! 20+ years later.....

What could happen next? Fuel skyrocketing as the U.S. Supply boom dries up? Especially after they find out how dangerous Hydraulic Fracking is! Or how about the majors simply using larger planes, needing less pilots? At American Airlines, Airbus A321 Is Forcing Out the A320 - Forbes

 

There is a very real chance this industry stalls again. World economies are beginning to flatten and banks are performing as they did prior to the last collapse. Growth has not met expectations for the US or the EU. Housing starts in the US are down and there is a very real possibility of another round of foreclosures, especially out West. Aside from economic factors a war in Eastern Europe, a terrorist attack, etc. will all stagnate the industry.

All of this coupled with the possibility of 50 seat aircraft elimination replaced with larger aircraft on less departures helps to alleviate the "shortage". The future is not nearly as bright as some make it out to be. If people begin spending less than 10 years at a regional I will be shocked and pleasantly surprised.