awesome response dude! thanks for the help. any suggestions regarding upgrade opportunities from your perspective?

 

If you are looking at the regionals that are wholly owned by American, PSA has the fastest upgrade and will continue to do so IF they can hire the 1000 new pilots in the next 24 months as forecast. If they can not hire enough pilots, the constant stream of new airplanes will stop, as will the fast upgrades. I think current classes have about half a dozen in them, but they are trying to ramp it up to 25 or so every two weeks like they had last year. If they can find that many pilots, PSA will continue to have one of the fastest upgrades in the industry for another 6 months at least.

PDT will also have a quick upgrade in the future, as more aircraft are coming in and senior CA's are flowing. The question here will be how long will the Dash's stay around. If they gain airplanes as fast as they lose them, it will not look good for upgrades. The flow is small, but so is the pilot group.

Envoy currently has the worst upgrade times (heck, some guys are still on reserve as FO's after 2 years), but it will also improve. Envoy is shrinking, and they are flowing a ton of people each month. They will continue to lose airplanes, especially if Republic can get their act together and stop cancelling flights. They are slowly adding some airplanes, and are keeping their 700's a little while longer, but in the next 24 months, they will be losing quite a bit of flying. Their projections are that a new hire FO will upgrade in 2.5 years. I personally think it will be closer to 3.5 years, but it also depends on attrition outside of the flow.

Just remember, at any airline, you can not upgrade until enough new hire FO's are hired behind you to push you up the list far enough. Also, enough captains have to move on, unless there is tremendous growth and more airframes are added. PSA has people moving on, and are still almost doubling in size in the next 24 months. That is why I say PSA has the fastest upgrade, and will continue to do so for awhile.

If people would stop looking at the individual aspects and look at it as a whole, the picture is clear.

Even though PSA has the fastest upgrade, doesn't mean that it is the right spot for you. I would have gladly sat in the right seat for another 6 months if I didn't have to commute and lived in base. There are several other factors. I would not advise anyone to go to Republic or Air Wisconsin as I am not sure that they have much of a future. Both have a supply of pilots, which is valuable, but RJET is a disaster of a company, and AWAC only has old CRJ200's. I could see AAG (or someone else) buying them just for their pilots. But the future is just too uncertain.

Oh, and Mesa? meh. Not much to say.

 

I don't work for PDT....

PSA currently has ~1200 pilots. So lets say you are #1200. The flow is 5/month up to a max of 8 per month dependent upon active captains.

So best case for you at 8/month is 12.5 years to flow to American, worst case 20 years. So split the difference and you're lucky if you get there in 15.

PSA is not the airline of choice if you are looking to flow.

 

The company has to meet with the NC in June to discuss an increase in the flow, do you not think the NC will once again get improvements?

AAG eventually wants all three WOs to have about the same flow time of 5-7 years for cost savings. I wouldn't worry about flow time as a new hire, just go to the company with the easiest commute.

 

You're assuming that no one ever leaves PSA for any reason but to flow. Given the state of the industry, is not realistic. I bet a conservative flow time is still lower than 12.5 years. ...Who knows how much lower.


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And you are assuming that there will be a regional airline in 10 years. I would not expect any of the current regionals, in their current form, to be in business in 5 years, let alone 10 years.

 

Does anyone know if AA will hire a PSA pilot off the street outside are the required to flow in order to get to AA? For some reason I thought I heard this rumor floating around.

 

Yes you can get hired outside the flow


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It's pointless because you have to check that little box that says you work at PSA, PDT or ENY and that gets your application thrown out. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Well... you're kinda wrong. At least in regards to ENY and pdt. Both have had pilots hired outside the flow. All 3 airlines are in great position to get you in and out to aa asap.