Adjust? Yes. Significantly? No.

 

The military is begging for pilots now. Military pilots are now the minority at majors and as retirements keep increasing they are becoming more scarce. The number of pilots they’re currently putting out will definitely decrease, especially when you’re forced to stay in longer because they can’t recruit.

United and Delta are already committed to “street to hero” programs to fill future voids. They may not be “desperate” but they definitely know they will have to do something once retirements get rolling, such as lowering standards, most likely throwing the degree requirement away.

 

That’s a recruiting number, if you look deeper they are padding in about 70% of those pilots that were at one of the companies (colgan, Mesabah, pinnacle)that make up endeavor-prior to the formation of endeavor.

Since endeavor was formed they have not sent anywhere close to AA flow and they barely sent anyone all of 2018, they have probably sent less than 300 since the inception of Endeavor..

 

Keep dreaming.
The latest Southwest Expo has been rumored to be 75% military. JetBlue, United, Delta all hold veteran only job fairs. Classes are still 50% military plus. Hardly a minority anywhere. A smaller portion than 15 years ago? Sure.

The “street to hero” programs not only require a degree, but they are the highest qualified applicants at 141 university programs. Not exactly the bottom of the barrel.

 

Uh, where did I say 10 years? In my opinion none of it is relevant. It's all just recruiting carrots.

 

You quoted my post to someone who said 10 years.

 

OO alone hires at least 1500/year. AA will start pulling more off the street in the future and have no problem covering their attrition.

 

So that makes them MY words? Nice try.

 

I Wasn’t saying they were a majority, I said they were 1500 pilots a year (plus RTP) that I believed he was ignoring in his calculations.

Nor am I talking about the pilots the military is “begging for” right now. I’m not sure you understand the system. With the possible exception of Guard and Reservists, everyone has a 10 year active duty service commitment for UPT. Those numbers are already baked in, decided by the numbers actually trained over the last decade, and will (with certain limitations through stop-loss) become free agents over the next ten years as their individual ADSCs expire. Those people will all be able to vote with their feet.

I will grant you that, having given away the airspace and infrastructure needed for increasing training, the military won’t be able to ADD to what they are turning out much, but most of those won’t be free agents for ten years anyway.

 

That’s simply not true. Most of the movement I mentioned happened under the SSP which occurred after emergence from bankruptcy while the company was Endeavor. It has been almost 6 years now that “Endeavor” has been in existence as a wholly owned, over 5.5 with the Endeavor name. Yes, the people who moved to DL under that program were Pinnacle/Colgan/Mesaba originally, but that’s because hardly anyone was hired from 2011-2014 (and a somewhat faster trickle from 2009-2011). It makes sense that movement has slowed over the last 12 months due to the way the hiring programs were structured, the lapse in hiring 2009-2014, and Delta’s recent slow down in hiring. But the fact remains we had 800 Endeavor pilots move from Endeavor to Delta 2013-2018.