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Old 02-20-2008 | 08:40 AM
  #2241  
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Originally Posted by Lighteningspeed
Initially, I don't think there will be any impact on Mesaba or Compass. Pinnacle, maybe. There will be major impacts on regionals not owned by NWA or DAL such as CHQ, RAH, Skywest, etc. NWA/DAL will consolidate regional flying and balance it out between Mesaba, Compass, and possibly Pinnacle. If SLC is kept as a hub, Mesaba and Compass will more and more take over the flying into and out SLC and flying done by Skywest and others not owned by NWA and DAL will be reduced. People talk about ironclad contracts between Skywest and DAL but there is no such thing as an ironclad contract. Merger happens, all bets are off. New entity is legally positioned to accept the existing contract or renegotiate almost all provisions of the existing contract.

Merger will have a major negative impact on regionals not owned by DAL or NWA but may have a positive impact on regionals such as Mesaba.
that is very optimistic, you mention pinnacle (not wholly owned) as a beneficiary to this, however you did not mention comair, a wholly owned entity of delta.

There are so many variables, including the all mighty dollar, that will persuade management to cut costs, cut jobs, or give regional flying to the lowest bidder.

But to be optimistic, no jobs will be lost and maybe we will see a small bump in pay
Old 02-20-2008 | 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by tsween
that is very optimistic, you mention pinnacle (not wholly owned) as a beneficiary to this, however you did not mention comair, a wholly owned entity of delta.

There are so many variables, including the all mighty dollar, that will persuade management to cut costs, cut jobs, or give regional flying to the lowest bidder.

But to be optimistic, no jobs will be lost and maybe we will see a small bump in pay
You are right Pinnacle is no longer owned by NWA, but DAL just gave the Delta Connection CRJ900 flying to 9E starting Dec 07 so who knows what will happen to 9E. Chances are 9E will continue the DAL Connection flying because they, like you said are the lowest bidder. Comair was left out because it is a wild card. DAL wants to get rid of Comair, and they have a lot of 50 seat RJs that DAL does not need. Comair will most likely be sold if DAL can fetch a good price or if DAL can't bring it in line with its wishes(Management's wishes).
Old 02-20-2008 | 09:14 AM
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so many variables, it is like picking winning lottery numbers
Old 02-20-2008 | 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by tsween
so many variables, it is like picking winning lottery numbers
There are a lot of variables but it is quite not as bad as that. Actually, I think based on current picture it is possible to project what is likely to happen with a fairly good accuracy. If NWA/DAL merges, it will maintain regionals owned by NWA and DAL based what it can do for them domestically. Regionals it cannot control with a reasonable amount of certainty or the ones it feels is a potential liability, it will try to disentangle itself from.
Old 02-20-2008 | 10:47 AM
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I would take SLC in a heart beat. These winters suck.
Old 02-20-2008 | 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Lighteningspeed
Initially, I don't think there will be any impact on Mesaba or Compass. Pinnacle, maybe. There will be major impacts on regionals not owned by NWA or DAL such as CHQ, RAH, Skywest, etc. NWA/DAL will consolidate regional flying and balance it out between Mesaba, Compass, and possibly Pinnacle. If SLC is kept as a hub, Mesaba and Compass will more and more take over the flying into and out SLC and flying done by Skywest and others not owned by NWA and DAL will be reduced. People talk about ironclad contracts between Skywest and DAL but there is no such thing as an ironclad contract. Merger happens, all bets are off. New entity is legally positioned to accept the existing contract or renegotiate almost all provisions of the existing contract.
While I tend to agree with your thought process, I've gotta say that Twseen got it right. It's fun to make guesses, but the reality is who knows what NW/DAL will look like if this merger goes down, let alone their regionals.

Originally Posted by Lighteningspeed
Merger will have a major negative impact on regionals not owned by DAL or NWA but may have a positive impact on regionals such as Mesaba.
It's interesting to note that in almost every thread I've read involving post-merger predictions, the poster see's the airline they fly for benefiting and the other airlines deteriorating to some extent.

That being said, I'd predict you're right

Originally Posted by tsween
so many variables, it is like picking winning lottery numbers
...nailed it.
Old 02-20-2008 | 12:52 PM
  #2247  
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Originally Posted by IHateMgmt


It's interesting to note that in almost every thread I've read involving post-merger predictions, the poster see's the airline they fly for benefiting and the other airlines deteriorating to some extent.

.

could not agree more, i ran across a post in the comair updates thread saying that when DAL/NWA merge that comair, compass and mesaba will combine seniority lists, except compass and mesaba will just be added to the bottom of theirs. So everyone predicts the best future for themselves!
Old 02-20-2008 | 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by tsween
could not agree more, i ran across a post in the comair updates thread saying that when DAL/NWA merge that comair, compass and mesaba will combine seniority lists, except compass and mesaba will just be added to the bottom of theirs. So everyone predicts the best future for themselves!
New merger law would not allow Mesaba and Compass to be stapled to the bottom. There is a lot of wishful thinking by some on this forum but my predictions are not based on wishful thinking. They are based on analyzing all the known factors and try predict logically from a business standpoint. Also added insight given to me by a NWA management type who sat next to me on one of my commuting flight to MSP.

All I can say is there will be a major reconsolidation of regionals not owned by NWA/DAL if they are going to survive the post merger.

For the next several years anyway, Mesaba would be a good place to be in.
Old 02-20-2008 | 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Lighteningspeed
Initially, I don't think there will be any impact on Mesaba or Compass. Pinnacle, maybe. There will be major impacts on regionals not owned by NWA or DAL such as CHQ, RAH, Skywest, etc. NWA/DAL will consolidate regional flying and balance it out between Mesaba, Compass, and possibly Pinnacle. If SLC is kept as a hub, Mesaba and Compass will more and more take over the flying into and out SLC and flying done by Skywest and others not owned by NWA and DAL will be reduced. People talk about ironclad contracts between Skywest and DAL but there is no such thing as an ironclad contract. Merger happens, all bets are off. New entity is legally positioned to accept the existing contract or renegotiate almost all provisions of the existing contract.

Merger will have a major negative impact on regionals not owned by DAL or NWA but may have a positive impact on regionals such as Mesaba.
Im not so sure I agree with this. Delta learned their lesson about giving one regional too much power when Comair struck for 3 months. I seriously doubt they would make that same mistake by growing us and Compass to the point where we would have a majority presence in SLC, MSP and DTW. I think Comair, ASA, Pinnacle and Skywest would maintain their presence in some way, shape or form. I don't know what to think of RAH, XJT and Mesa. I do tend to think the combined carrier would want to unload 50 seaters and get more E-jets into the new DCI fleet. But thats as much as my crystal ball can come up with for now.
Old 02-20-2008 | 01:35 PM
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That's why NWA has both Compass AND Mesaba. I did not say Skywest will go away. Their flying for DAL will decrease in proportion to Mesaba and Compass picking them up gradually. At any case, there will be a major reconsolidation of regionals not owned by either NWA or DAL. The days of the regionals like Skywest and RAH growing out of control is over.
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