Hot off the press from RB, WARN letters going out for potential furloughs over the next two weeks..

 

I know a lot of people are going to be upset about what I have to say but several UAX carriers are closing going into 2021. TSA numbers today were 26% of last year. Word on the street is UA is planning on giving the rj flying to Skywest, Mesa, and Republic. Air Wisconsin, go jet, CommutAir, and xjet will be closing by 2021. You can be in denial all you want but this is happening.

SK warned that 50 seaters will be a thing of the past. The only 50 seater UA wants in its fleet are the 550s. And out of those 4 companies only one of them (go jet) has them on property. The problem is those planes dont belong to GJ they belong to UA and can be pulled at anytime. Air Whisky is planning on buying 700s and converting them to 550 but have no contract in place. A little too late for UA to save them. Should have invested in newer planes yrs ago. Xjet and CommutAir both fly 145s and xjet has the oldest most expense pilot group. UA has ownership in both companies but is losing more than profiting at this point and just like you should with stocks they will cut there losses.

Currently Skywest runs the west coast with no competition. They own their planes, gates and maintenance. Bc of economy of scale they are able to give UA a discount in flight prices. Its why they are getting 3x the hours from UA than any other RJ at over 38,000 hrs.

In 2nd place with flight hours from UA is Mesa. Obviously most people will point to how cheap they are and race to the bottom and this is true But it is not the only reason. Mesa will be expanding in this pandemic. What people dont know is JO and SK have a long standing relationship that goes back decades to the days of America West. Johnny-O like always has slithered his way into another great situation. After out maneuvering Xjet for 175s by offering to buy them instead of UA leasing them for xjet. Then offering to lease his 700s to go jet to turn into more 550s to expand go jets fleet (all pre covid). JO is reneging on GoJet and keeping the 700s with Mesa to convert to 550s himself. Mesa will be getting 20 new 175s starting in Sep at 2 a month. At the same rate be converting 700s to 550s to open new bases in EWR and ORD with them while the new 175s stay in IAD. Mesas training department is going to be bringing back the furloughed trainees come Aug/Sep and is getting ready for a ramp up. Its expected that UA will be pulling GoJets 550s and handing them to Mesa. JO had also placed a large bid for more 700s to hit the market to expand past that.

Republic is in 3rd place in terms of hrs from UA. But barely behind Mesa. Even though Republic has seen a large reduction in flight hours from UA the expectation is that is mainly due to EWR and international travel. Word on the street is UA will be giving a boat load of flying to Republic out of EWR once international travel starts to return. I also expect them to increase flying out of ORD once other carriers fold that are currently there. I know Republic pilots didnt like hearing 40% work force reduction but I believe when its all said and done it will be closer to 20%. Unfortunately Republic was in the middle of expanding during covid and is way over staffed.

To conclude, there will only be 6 regional companies in one years time. I expect AA will merge two of its rjs and fold the 3rd with Envoy being the name saved. Delta has planned to save Endeavor with a full force effort to give them most of flying. Mesa will renew its contract with AA in Jan but the fleet will be reduced by at least 20-25 planes while expanding with UA and starting DHL express. Skywest and Republic will continue to work for all 3 legacies. And finally Horizon will be taken care of by Alaskan and will be expanding in the place of RavnAir.

 

All of this is great in theory for now as to why Skywest, Mesa, and RJet have more flying. They operate 70+ seaters which is what United wants. The issue is in a few months the look back period is going to show up and these very same planes will have to be cut due to scope while the 50 seater will still have some scope room. United doesn’t want 50 seaters but has and will continue to have space in scope for more of them than 70 seaters. United pilots won’t budge on scope which means unless there is bankruptcy don’t expect any scope relief. What United wants and what they will get will be 2 different things. They will be forced to fly 50 seaters unless they start to fly a lot more NBs.

 

I agree with the scope issue. Thats why Mesa and Skywest will be running the show with the 550s. I fully expect UA to push 70+ seater to there limit of scope and the 550s to fill the difference. Its why I think RPA will still see a reduction in flying overall by UA but will get some back from their current covid state.

 

70-seaters are already at their limit. That limit will be even lower in the near future. The 550 is a good product, but has serious range issues. Lots of routes currently (pre-Covid) served by the 145 can’t be flown by the 550. I agree that United has major issues to sort out with its regionals, but your proposed “solutions” don’t really work given the two factors above. And it’s Alaska.

 

[

QUOTE=PeakEGT;3092997]XJT increasing 50% out of ORD (4 daily to 8).

i like percentages..[/QUOTE]
Sorry bud, but that’s a 200% increase. You know 2 times. If it was a 50% increase it would be 4 going to 6. You know.. 2 is 50% of 4?

but I like growth!

 

First off I have actually got a lot of my information not from thin air. These are not assumptions these are current conversations going on behind closed doors. So its not my personal proposed “solution”. Nothing is set in stone but the conversations have started. You should really listen to earnings calls, town halls, and management meetings. Secondly the range of the 550 is about 1,000 mi while the 145xl (the best version) is 1,887 mi. And even though there is a difference it is not enough to save the 145. The plan is to disconnect from small cities/towns that will not have a lot of flights or are close enough to drive to a hub. People in small town areas will lose some of there options. The only reason these routes are still even getting flights is bc the CARES act agreement. For example instead of servicing flights from Panama City to IAH, IAD, DEN, EWR and ORD with rjs to get people to the connectors. You will see just IAD and IAH connectors from that smaller city. There will be an overall reduction in routes in Oct but the remaining companies will get the lion share. Mainline is planning on also reducing their overall fleet size and service areas. 550s will replace the 145 in the UAX fleet. Its not going to happen over night but over a 6 month- yr period. Im not going to argue about this bc I know what I know. But like I said in my original statement keep being in denial and dont kick and scream when your WARN letter shows up
in the mail.

 

Point 80 is pretty accurate.. With a few minor tweaks. But close enough.. UAX shakeup this fall for sure.. Also there is plans to pull seats out of the 76 seat aircraft, if needed..

 

1800 miles in an ERJ?!?

like Laguardia to Albuquerque. God save me

 

I disagree only because 3 regionals isn’t enough for papa United’s whipsaw.