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Old 06-13-2007, 05:35 PM   #1  
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Default Mesaba flow up/flow down with NWA

The NWA MEC today approved a flow up/flow down agreement with the company for Mesaba. Any thoughts about how this might make Mesaba more attractive or not.
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Old 06-13-2007, 05:42 PM   #2  
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Sources??????? If thats true thats awesome!
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Old 06-13-2007, 05:44 PM   #3  
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The NWA MEC Hotline
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Old 06-13-2007, 06:04 PM   #4  
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Sorry for the long post. Last December I posted some speculation, then followed up a month later. It now looks like much of the speculation has become fact. What happens to Compass seems to be the one remaining issue.


Originally Posted by Ftrooppilot (6 months ago)

FACTORS
NWA owns 30+ % of Mesaba (Mair Holdings)
NWA Senior Management owns a significant % of Mesaba (Mair Holdings)
NWA owns Mesaba aircraft and equipment
Mesaba is a "body factory." No concrete and bricks to purchase.
NWA has new CRJs and ERJs comming (may need court approval)
NWA short routes with average load factor can be flown by 90 seaters.
NWA pilots object to any regional flying aircraft with over 50 seats.

GOAL
Increase MAIR holdings stock value . (Management makes money.)
Reduce costs by using CRJs instead of A-320s, etc.on some routes
Avoid NWA pilot protest over commuter 90 seat issue.
Exercise greater control over owned assets.
Have a solely owned regional capability (like COMPASS was to be.)
Maintain crew staffing levels. Avoid eventual pilot shortage.
Make money.

SOLUTION
Assign 50 seat CRJs / ERJs to regional contractor (not Mesaba). (To Pinnacle then 17 back to Mesaba)
Purchase Mesaba (ready made regional airline) (Done)
Incorporate Mesaba personnel into NWA. (Done ???)
Assign 90 seat CRJs to NWA (former Mesaba personnel) (Mesaba - for now)
Establish a "flow through" for crew members. (Done as of today)

RESULTS
NWA Makes money and comes out of bankruptcy. (Done)
NWA senior managers make money on their[Mesaba] stock.
(Check both Mesaba and NWA management bonuses)
NWA pilots are happy that 50 seats and below go to regionals. (Done - with flow back they have access. )
NWA has regional capability (foil to testy regional contractors) (Done)
Former Mesaba pilots are happy to be part of NWA with flow through. (Happy with CRJs / Now have flow through)
Compass option is cancelled. (IMHO - It will happen.)
NWA avoids a potential pilot shortage at the "major" level. (Draw from Mesaba)

And they all lived happily ever after.

.

Batting average isn't bad. My best guess - Compass will fade into the sunset or disolve into NWA. The ERJs will go to Mesaba or NWA mainline. Much depends upon the finalized relationship after NWA purchases Mesaba. Will the name Mesaba be dropped ? Lots of interesting senarios possible.
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Old 06-14-2007, 05:01 AM   #5  
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Very, very interesting!
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Old 06-14-2007, 05:06 AM   #6  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ftrooppilot View Post
And they all lived happily ever after.
uh,, thats what pinnacle thought when they bought us and gave us lots of planes while downsizing mesaba. Oh and we had a weak "flowthrough", (ask the furloughed dc9 captains here all about that) which was really a flow back since no one went up. like i have said before you guys will get built up and i can bet you dollars to donuts that within 2 years you will be sold to the highest bidder, and the cycle will repeat itself once again.
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Old 06-14-2007, 05:31 AM   #7  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by warriordriver View Post
Sources??????? If thats true thats awesome!
Yeah, if you want to make crap flying for a mainline carrier whose management would pimp out their own grandmothers on a street corner if it would raise their stock price 1%
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Old 06-14-2007, 05:31 AM   #8  
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Flowthrough ha?, for what its worth CAL is taking more XJT guys now than they did with the "Flowthrough"
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Old 06-14-2007, 05:36 AM   #9  
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And depending on how its worded, beware of "flowthrough" agreements. They almost always benefit the mainline pilots more than the regional partner. Now the mainline pilots who are eligible for flowthrough (or "flowback", as it were) have a guaranteed safety net. What do you (as a regional pilot) have? A chance to go up to mainline? Whoopdy fricken do! How bout you pay me more at the regional level and shove your flowthrough up your a$$.
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Old 06-14-2007, 05:37 AM   #10  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Airsupport View Post
. . . i have said before you guys will get built up and i can bet you dollars to donuts that within 2 years you will be sold to the highest bidder, and the cycle will repeat itself once again.
Possible. Don't have a "dog in this fight." Never been employed by an airline but enjoy doing analysis. Past economic moves (NWA/Pinnacle history) don't always predict future decisions.

In my (humble uneducated) opinion, if anything is sold it will be the Compass operating certificate - but not ERJs which will go to NWA (possibly MESABA) to replace DC9s. Doing so will "uncomplicate" the NWA / Mesaba / Compass relationship and management effectively having to deal with three Corporations (redundant expensive management) and three employee union groups.

Time will tell.
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