I bet some airline hedge fuel a few months ago its just a matter of how much they did hedge could save a few airlines for a while.

 

The 50 seaters will get parked fast. Not all of them, but many will go. The ones remaining will be on government subsidized routes. The 65-76 seaters will be getting run ragged through tough times though. Cheap staffing at the regionals and slowed hiring at majors will benefit regionals during this time. Majors will likely park the older portions of their narrowbody fleets (UA's airbus fleet, 752 fleet, etc)

50 seaters will return full force in the form of ultra efficient turboprops like the new Embraer that launches this decade. The 145/200 will last until then. And as major hiring comes screeching to a halt here in the next few months with WW3 oil prices, the regionals will be able to catch up on staffing. A lot of those small markets were only dropped for staffing issues, and they will return as staffing at the regionals catches up.

There's a finite amount of airplanes that DEN can accept in one hour, and usually they go into flow control delay programs long before that because approach can't even handle what they're supposed to be able to handle on paper. Several other airports have the same problem, however EWR and the rest of NYC doesn't have much of an ATC problem but more of a "lack of runways" problem.

 

WW3 oil prices is a little over dramatic. Prices will increase, but the world won’t stop spinning.

From everything that I’ve read about the Embraer turboprop is that they’re talking about something in the 70-90 seat capacity range and that will be problematic in the US market due to scope. Also, they are only considering the possibility of a 50 seat version at this point. I don’t see airlines parking 175’s to buy a turboprop. I also don’t see the 145/200’s lasting that long, especially if fuel prices stay up for longer than we would like.

 

Fuel prices being the different variable is a great point, however, do you remember what was flying in the year of 2020? 76 seaters and cargo. A recession of major magnitude will change it all... I don't think we will see anymore bailouts because of 200 brl oil. Not sure if I am backing my own point up here but just seem the green new deal might happen without a vote being cast.

 

If oil prices and inflation stay high, everyone will be impacted. People will have less discretionary income and ticket prices will have to match the rising cost of fuel. One thing to consider is that oil will have to hit $170/barrel to equal 2008 prices adjusted for inflation. A recession is a very real possibility given the situation in Ukraine coupled with our domestic fiscal policies. A recession is still a minor blip compared to the global freak out over covid. Demand won’t go down 85% like we saw in 2020, however 10-15% would be possible. If fuel and inflation stay high for a long period I’d expect the 70/76 seaters to fly very hard, the 50 seaters retired sooner than planned, and markets that can’t support 70 seat or larger aircraft dropped. On the legacy side I’d expect deliveries to continue and focus near term on replacing older, less efficient aircraft. When demand recovers, future deliveries could then be used for growth. United for example has around 500 aircraft on order, with approximately 200 of them being growth. The current plan is for the near term deliveries to be all growth, while future deliveries focus on replacing older aircraft. In a major recession they would probably continue to take delivery and focus on improving efficiency. The Max 9 for instance has a couple more seats than the 757-200, yet burns about 2,000 lbs/hour less fuel. The max and neo both have a fuel burn that is approximately 16% less than their standard versions. If fuel prices do stay high, I’d think that increasing efficiency would be the name of the game. As the thread title indicates, this is all just speculation.

 

I thought WWIII was going to happen if Trump got reelected???

It's a real shame. All of this could have been avoided had people voted correctly. The average American voter deserves what they've got coming. No remorse. Get the popcorn ready, I'm enjoying the show.

 

Without getting political about who’s fault things are, it certainly seems like things are on a knife edge right now. If it does get as bad as some are saying it is about to, well, let’s just say I hope you aren’t on the bottom end of a seniority list where ever you may be. The music could stop violently fast for regional and major hiring.

$300 crude barrel + huge drop in demand for flying + high cost to fly a jet once fuel hedging is dried up + panic by airlines = furlough town my friends.

I’ve seen some market analysts suggest 300 a barrel is on the low side of where things could go. Add a war that the US and UK are forced into via NATO, which again, many are saying is a case of “when” and on “if” …and we got trouble in paradise folks.

Hopefully this entire thing is solved with diplomacy but holy smokes, this has the potential to be a killer for aviation in the near term if things don’t become stable soon

 

Barring a large drop in flying for whatever cause the regionals are going to shrink....a lot. Senior F/O's are getting interviews with major airlines and they're already short Captains at most regionals. Some numbers I've seen are 9000 pilots being hired by B737/A320 and larger operators in the next 12-18 months. The vast majority of those will come from regional airlines. They are roughly 20,000 Regional Pilots right now. So nearly half the pilots gone in the next 12-18 months.

I think the only way they're going to fix this is putting Regional Pilots on mainline seniority lists so when they flow they'll get paid as though they'd been at mainline all that time. Or something similar, perhaps even merging into mainline which I think is least likely. It'll give the mainline unions some major negotiating power.

 

Man I really hope this stuff gets figured out soon. After Covid throwing us all for a disastrous loop these past few years I was really looking forward to a bit of stability, even just for a few months!! It’s too soon for another downturn. It’s starting to feel like 2008 again.

 

the thing is this all feels so self inflicted, COVID turned out to not be the Black Plague and a massive overreaction, and we shut down our oil producing capacity. We were energy independent 2 years ago.