Military strength? Based on their performance in UA, they have none. The only strength they have are their nukes, I would put any western nuke owning country against their army all day long.

 

With nukes alone yes. But as far as current power in the world I would still rank them behind China based on China's Population, Economy, and nuke capability.

 

First, I've been reading a lot of Peter Zeihan lately, and it's fascininating. Currently on his 2nd book "The Absent Superpower," and it's really interesting. Has a Chapter on the current Russian aggression, however the book was published in 2018. See anything he's put on YouTube lately.

Second, when we finally have an executive administration again that isn't beholden to the religious zealotry of the climate change types, the tap will get turned on again as far as domestic oil and gas. Any sane person could easily see the need to increase domestic gas production to feed local NatGas plants as a way of reducing emissions, but since the followers of the Church of the Swedish Teenager aren't known for actually thinking, we just have to deal with the octogenarian houseplant who's unable to either answer questions or tweet on his own. Give it time.

In the meantime, assuming continuous Legacy, Freight, and LCC hiring like we're seeing now, the only way that Legacy carriers are going to be able to staff 76 seat feed (assuming they want to in lieu of E190 or A220 flying) is create a mechanism to accrue Legacy seniority while sitting in the flight deck of a CRJ / 175. First Legacy CEO to solve that issue wins, and likely each of the other Legacy carriers will follow shortly thereafter, then it'll be the LCCs back in the hot seat for hiring R-ATPs with a pulse.

 

Don’t know how that would work unless you’re talking about pay longevity and not actual seniority. Legacies are not about to let 20 year military or high time regional pilots hire on and then have someone who did a couple of years in an rj slide in on top of them when their number comes up. Some type of actual flow that isn’t seen as a scam would be good, bringing everything in house would be even better. Legacy seniority starts day one of legacy training. I don’t see that changing.

 

I’m talking about actual seniority because that’s what all the regional pilots are chasing at LCCs, Legacies, etc, in lieu of flow. We have guys here at PSA now in management positions who flowed to AA then came back for certain projects, and they’re accruing seniority while here.

Again, first CEO to figure out how to solve the problem
Sims sustainable regional feed, and forces the hand of the other two Legacies.


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Those people actually flowed up and then came back. When they went to AA indoc they got a legacy number. In the UAL contract for example, it specifically says that a pilot shall be placed on the seniority list effective on their date of hire with United. There is no way the membership would ever vote to give seniority numbers to pilots who don’t yet work for the company. People flying for a branded regional won’t get a number any more than a military pilot with several more years on their commitment would until their first day of training with the legacy. Something is going to have to change with the current model though. The current attrition rates are unprecedented and unsustainable. In this environment flow isn’t that much of a carrot, but I don’t see the unions going along with issuing seniority until in class at that company? I also can’t imagine anyone waiting to flow if another career company called before then.

 

You’re making very good and valid points, and honestly I don’t think you’re wrong.

I’m just highlighting that what pilots are ultimately after is accruing seniority on a list they want to be on, and all of the other retention efforts thus far have fallen short.

Would the APA BOD or ALPA MECs at DAL or UAL ever vote in changes that would support such changes? Ultimately they’re going to want to know what’s in it for them, and everything has a price.

Regional pilots have let it be known by their actions that their price is seniority. Legacy management is going to have to figure out how to meet that price while a pilot is operating a CRJ / 175.


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Having spoken with several friends with experience from less than a year up to about 25 years at legacies none of them care who gets seniority behind them. It doesn’t change anything for them. So yes, I could see a pilot group allowing a regional pilot accrue seniority at a legacy.

Justification for it could be made that the regional pilots are making money for the legacy and do represent them. No one, except a very very small group of people, know what regional they’re flying on. They just know they bought a, insert airline here, ticket and are on a smaller plane.

People care about seniority, it’s what keeps them at their current carrier more often than not. We all know this. We all know people who don’t want to move on from a regional because they’re comfortable where they are due to their seniority. I’m sure you would have some people staying longer at a regional and waiting to move up until they can hold a line as an FO in a base they want. It doesn’t cost the company anything, unless they tag longevity to it, which I really don’t see that happening. Could be wrong.

 

I could see where it could hurt pilot recruitment from any source other than a branded regional. Military pilots or pilots from regionals outside of the brand wouldn’t want to go to brand X knowing that a bunch of regional pilots would come in on top of them when their flow number comes up and extend their time on reserve or prevent bidding more desirable bases.

 

This is going to make 2008 feel like a Swedish massage.