Many would still leave but some number would stay. Perhaps the regional has a base where they live.

As has been repeatedly pointed out it isn't necessary to retain captains for 20 years, it is only necessary to retain them for 18 months or so (long enough to get the next wave 1,000 hours).

The enticement could also be simply to eliminate debt and rebuild savings. We always encourage people to get a seniority number as soon as possible. Doing that in a precarious financial position might work out if nothing goes wrong but could lead ​​to bankruptcy.

 

The CA shortage is here to stay indefinitely, but I think a lot of people are underestimating the FO shortage (even if temporary) around the corner as well. I know that goes against a lot of the rhetoric here but hear me out. Most of the new hires in class or with class dates soon having been building time since late 2019, or early 2020 before the hiring stopped at flight schools when instructors stopped leaving. Most people who got their CFI in 2020 sat on the sidelines for close to a year, and are only halfway or so to 1500 now. In addition the CFI market is saturated, asked anyone instructing in DFW, Phoenix, or South Florida. They are building 30-50 hours a month. The market is about to deplete the candidates who were on a normal trajectory to their 1500, and it will in some fashion be a speed bump in staffing in the next year or so. Whether that just means a general shrink in size across the board or what, is yet to be seen.

 

Except 18 months is nowhere near long enough for them to get the next wave 1000 hours unless there is no attrition whatever in the FO side of the house and - at least at present - there certainly is. FOs are going to ACMIs and ULCCs and even legacies with no 121 TPIC, but they are taking their 121 SIC hours with them and will not themselves become the next generation of regional CAs - EVER. And disproportionately, you are losing the senior FOs who have already sucked up 6-700 SIC hours, meaning they’ve burned through two-thirds of the shelf life of one of your 18 month CAs and they will contribute NOTHING to the next wave of CAs.

Now as smaller regionals fold, you’ll likely be able to pick up a few DECs with bonuses, guys with too few years left to do much more than break even financially going to a major who simply don’t want to move, but barring a recession that curtails the hiring wave at the majors, there simply aren’t going to be enough CAs to generate the right seat SIC hours needed for the regional industry to do anything but contract. The loss of high time FOs will kill it just as dead as the loss of CAs.

 

Age 67, coming to a dumpster fire near you.

 

And the coming recession.

I wouldn't celebrate the death knell of the regional industry just yet.

 

someone said it...

The bust phase of the traditional 10 year boom bust cycle is coming to a base near you sooner than 2030. more like 2023

 

It used to be the 7 year cycle. Starting in 2015 all the chicken littles were like wait for it... wait for it... wait for it.

Crickets. Until covid. Then it bounced right back.

We seem to be in a new paradigm, and the old cycle model doesn't appear to be holding up. What's the new model? Dunno. But ground war in Europe, involving the red army, hasn't brought the house down, at least not yet.

 

And yet..
​​​​​here YOU are... Enjoy as everyone passes you by

 

I’m getting the impression he prob has multiple job offers from legacies, but prefers to stay at Mesa feeling like a move to the legacies would be lateral at best….

 

That is the dumbest thing I've ever read.