Is the regional model imploding?
#31
Prime Minister/Moderator

Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
If the COMAIR and Colgan events had been widebodies the liability would have been $6B instead of $1B each (ballpark). That's getting to be real money.
#32
#33
Back in the old days, TWA and PanAm used to hire pilots and sit them in the jump seat as a No stripe observer. Or so I have been told by CAs of the Charles Lindbergh era.
#35
Prime Minister/Moderator

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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
If they prop up the regional model with high pay in order to get through the retirement wave, they have a couple options to reel it back in when the time comes...
1. Wait until there's a pilot surplus (assuming that ever happens again), and then startup new regionals which attract young upwardly mobile time-builders with fast upgrade. The established regionals then have to accept concessions or lose their flying. Nothing new there, the regional death march road is littered with the corpses of Top Regionals which were put down.
2. Let inflation do it's work over time. Slower maybe, but gets there in the end.
That's if they bother to keep the regional industry intact, it's not even clear that's going to happen.
1. Wait until there's a pilot surplus (assuming that ever happens again), and then startup new regionals which attract young upwardly mobile time-builders with fast upgrade. The established regionals then have to accept concessions or lose their flying. Nothing new there, the regional death march road is littered with the corpses of Top Regionals which were put down.
2. Let inflation do it's work over time. Slower maybe, but gets there in the end.
That's if they bother to keep the regional industry intact, it's not even clear that's going to happen.
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2016
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There's an issue with this. If you bring the regionals in house at a major, it will stop other regional CAs from going to that major. For example: Let's say AA brings PSA in house and staples them to the bottom of the seniority list. A CA at a different regional, maybe Republic is looking to move on to a major. They won't look at AA because they won't want to start at the bottom of the list below the CRJ guys. You'd have to give them some sort of seniority credit to make that remotely attractive. Scenario 2: Someone at the bottom of the CRJ list who was hired at PSA right before PSA joins AA. Option is to stay at PSA and ride the list up to where you want to be, which could take years, or jump to United where they can start in a bigger plane with a bigger schedule sooner and not be so far down the list. Obviously they likely would not stay. I don't see a solution to this problem unless you guarantee some sort of seniority portability, which seems unlikely. It's going to get messy, and airlines will have to either be creative in poaching other companies' pilots while keeping their own, or come to some sort of (illegal) backdoor agreement to stop the poaching altogether.
#37
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2017
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I'm not certain the current regional pay is sustainable, it may be a bandaid until they can sort out the way forward. If they brought 175's in house at current small jet rates, yeah that would be fine.
It's not just first year... at some point post-retirement wave a new hire might spend years as a small-jet FO. Mil retirement will keep food on the table and a roof over your head but it's not a windfall. At some point those guys will take other jobs instead.
That said, I don't think recruiting mil retirees is a huge driving factor for the airlines, just a consideration.
It's not just first year... at some point post-retirement wave a new hire might spend years as a small-jet FO. Mil retirement will keep food on the table and a roof over your head but it's not a windfall. At some point those guys will take other jobs instead.
That said, I don't think recruiting mil retirees is a huge driving factor for the airlines, just a consideration.
#38
There's an issue with this. If you bring the regionals in house at a major, it will stop other regional CAs from going to that major. For example: Let's say AA brings PSA in house and staples them to the bottom of the seniority list. A CA at a different regional, maybe Republic is looking to move on to a major. They won't look at AA because they won't want to start at the bottom of the list below the CRJ guys. You'd have to give them some sort of seniority credit to make that remotely attractive. Scenario 2: Someone at the bottom of the CRJ list who was hired at PSA right before PSA joins AA. Option is to stay at PSA and ride the list up to where you want to be, which could take years, or jump to United where they can start in a bigger plane with a bigger schedule sooner and not be so far down the list. Obviously they likely would not stay. I don't see a solution to this problem unless you guarantee some sort of seniority portability, which seems unlikely. It's going to get messy, and airlines will have to either be creative in poaching other companies' pilots while keeping their own, or come to some sort of (illegal) backdoor agreement to stop the poaching altogether.
#40
Prime Minister/Moderator

Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Fine by me. The idea that military guys have some god given right to waltz into a 777 needs to die. Some of us have spent years loyally flying the same customers as mainline. If my 76 seat jet is below your dignity, then go sell insurance! I'd rather fly with a 1,500 hour kid than a salty old colonel anyway...
It's not about having a "right" to do that, it's about recruiting... they know mil, especially retired mil, have other options in life. That issue has actually been diluted by the rise of big RJ's flying longer stages, it's not like the ten-leg turbo-prop days of yore (under 135 duty limits).
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