Yes, there is volatility in the industry. Ridership has gone up and down. Yes, profitability was all over the map.

I kept looking for a graph of the number of pilots furloughed each year since 1970 and then a tie to why it happened. I did not find it in either article. Did I miss the graph?

Specifically, when did furloughs across the industry occur? If the 8 - 10 year frequency is correct, there should be 6 to 9 across the board furloughs, not just when an individual airline went bankrupt.

Otherwise, people are waving their hands.

 

1. You used to be the opposite sex.

2. You worked for a now defunct snowboard magazine.

3. You worked for TWA.

 

Number 2 is correct. Ding Ding Ding.

 

I am confused on your argument. Are you trying to say that historically the airline industry is actually stable and this event is a one off? Or that black swan events don’t happen exactly every ten years. If it’s the latter I would agree they don’t seem to happen exactly every 120 months, but for sake of hyperbole it’s easier to say every ten years.

 

Please show me where I said anything about a "single incident" or "single year"?

 

Regionals will be hiring again before anybody else, which is the logical next step for you CFIs out there. You've already committed a massive amount of time, money and hard work to obtain the necessary ratings. Pulling the plug right now imo would be the worst decision you could make. Ride the wave and weather the storm. Those who chose to abandon the career weren't cut out for it to begin with and those who keep their heads down and plug away will be rewarded. If you absolutely cannot pay your bills then pick up a side gig but you need to stay current for when the ship rights itself. I'm not generally an optimist but I do think we are close to the light at the end of the tunnel. And when you do get on with an airline, keep the CFI current. It amazes me the people I talk to that let their ticket lapse because they think they'll never need it again.

 

I think you look way too highly of yourself and this profession. This isn’t the right stuff breaking the sound barrier.

Looking down on others because they chose to go somewhere else is about as narcissistic as you can be.

If someone is young riding out this wave may be the right thing for them to do. However, second career people who can earn way more outside now versus playing the long game in the airlines may not make sense to stick around.

 

That's a huge factor. The 23 year old CFI with no other responsibilities lives in a different world than the 43 year old trying to get started with a mortgage and family to provide for. Getting picked up by the “right regional” will make a difference too. Not all remaining regionals will be here in 5 years and picking the winners isn’t very easy.

 

I would have guessed in reverse order and since he said the first two guesses don’t count...

 

Fairly easy to pick safe ones: YX, OO, and 9E. Possibly AA Wholly owned but AA is a mess right now and who knows what will happen with flow.