rickair7777

Don't forget YV. Cockroach factor, been very reliable for a long time.

at6d

In October of 1999, I was applying to the regionals. I had 1600 TT, 600 multi engine, and an ATP, with 1200 dual given and age 24. I was barely competitive in my new hire class at Eagle, and in the bottom fourth in seniority.

Things were looking up in the industry at the time. Nearly two years later we had 9/11 and the Lost Decade became a reality.

This industry is not stable.

Meep

Haha, true!

TransWorld

You are correct when I meant a black swan event does not magically happen on or about every ten years.

Suppose someone claims a recession in the economy will be exactly next year, “just because we are about due for one.” Will a recession take place sometime in the future? Yes. Will it happen at exactly the average number of years? No. There is a wide variability of when it will happen and a wide variability as to the severity.

The airline industry is stable? Not in the least. I saw someone do an analysis of profitability of all the airlines a few years ago, and found the average profits per year, for the entire industry was zero.

I will say with the big four passenger carrier and big two cargo carriers, the likelihood of further big buy outs and mergers like we had over a number of decades is fairly low. Hard to see one of the big four getting regulatory approves to buy out one of the other three. (Buyouts of smaller ones is still possible.) From that standpoint, the landscape has changed.

at6d

Don’t forget the big three also invest in foreign partnerships. Domestic carriers may expand....but not in the way we pilots think.

Hedley

There are those that I’d guess given today’s information would be better picks, but people once thought rock solid regionals like Comair and XJT were safe bets. For UAX for example, I’d feel better going to Republic, Mesa, or even SkyWest. The problem with SkyWest is that they fly a bunch of 200’s and will take a really big hit when the fleet is retired. My prediction is that both the 200 and 145 will be gone by 2025, as well as Air Wisconsin, CommutAir, and probably GoJet. UAX will then consist of 550’s and 175’s being operated by Mesa, Republic, and SkyWest.

FLYGUYRY

This is absolutely correct. Everyone has their own situation and their own tolerances for what they can handle. I left a pretty stable 6 figure career to chase a long time dream of being an airline pilot at 35 years old. Now, two years later at 37 I have almost 1700 hours, 1000 of which is turbine, was a CFI/CFII, FO and Captain at a 135 carrier till they cut the pay so much it became unsustainable. Now I’m delivering packages for FedEx making more than I made as a Captain and desperately trying to get back to my old career field (something made more complicated by a now inactive security clearance).

For me, I knew the first year and a half to two years were going to be rough, and I planned for it. I did not however expect it to go beyond two years with no light at the end of the tunnel. I of course knew there would be downturns, but figured I’d at least be a couple years into a regional before one hit. I’m single without any kids and I suppose I could keep toughing it out and living in the red dipping into an ever dwindling savings each month but I kind of hit the wall where I said enough is enough. I loved aviation just as much as the next guy, I lived and breathed it, hell I still do but for me personally anyways, it’s just not worth it anymore. If i was 22, or hell even 27 I might be more willing to try and power through it, but now I’m inching up to 40 and it appears that I’ll be stuck making sub 50k a year pay for quite a while, after essentially living in poverty the last two - not sustainable, but I certainly admire those who tough it out. I’ll never stop flying but I do believe I’m probably done flying for a living.

Hedley

There's nothing wrong with that plan. After thousands of hours of airline flying, most people consider this a good job, but it is just what we do to earn a living. It can really be a great job if you can get on with a legacy, LCC, or a good freight company, but it turns into chasing money and days off, not the love of flying. Hopefully you can get back into your previous field. Providing that it wasn’t something that you hated, earning a living outside of aviation and doing the type of flying that you enjoy could be nice. Go chase $200 hamburgers, go backcountry camping, or try to make yourself sick flying aerobatics. Fly when you want to, not when you have to.

rickair7777

No harm, no foul. The landscape is drastically different now than 12 months ago. That's even more significant for older career changers.

Aquaticus

The problem with your line of thinking is that a pilot being furloughed isn't a good indicator of the health of the industry or career progression. If his airline liquidates is the pilot furloughed? You said you couldn't remember the slowdown in the early 90 or mid-80's and that chart showed the slow down with your exact timeline you were refuting. In the mid 80's pilots were picketing, a few pilots were scabbing or getting hired out of order, airlines were consolidating or disappearing ... the number of furloughs doesn't tell you that. The industry booms and busts with too many external factors but to say the 8-10 yr cycle hasn't existed is just not true.