3000 Hour CFI
12-25-2020 | 02:42 PM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 198
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I love it how some here say it happens every 8 to 10 years. From 2001 to 2008 is 7 years. From 2008 to 2020 is 12 years. Let’s see, 2001 minus 10 years is 1991. Don’t recall, what happened then? 1991 minus 10 years would be 1981. What happened then? Refresh my memory.
2001 was the twin towers being destroyed, many people did not fly. 2008 was the mortgage bubble (lying about income to get mortgages with no proof of income) and Mark to market causing a recession. Also the flying mandatory retirement went up from 60 to 65. The major airlines had a major consolidation that contributed to the lost decade. Don’t see those two things happening again. 2020 was the worst plague in a century, except for the Asian flu in 1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I forget, did we have across the board pilot furloughs in those years?
Of course there will be black swan events in the future, but I reject the idea they occur every 8 to 10 years, as though they are related.
2001 was the twin towers being destroyed, many people did not fly. 2008 was the mortgage bubble (lying about income to get mortgages with no proof of income) and Mark to market causing a recession. Also the flying mandatory retirement went up from 60 to 65. The major airlines had a major consolidation that contributed to the lost decade. Don’t see those two things happening again. 2020 was the worst plague in a century, except for the Asian flu in 1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I forget, did we have across the board pilot furloughs in those years?
Of course there will be black swan events in the future, but I reject the idea they occur every 8 to 10 years, as though they are related.
The early 90s was the gulf war and early eighties was even worse with deregulation to be followed by Lorenzo
12-25-2020 | 05:20 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,130
Likes: 0
12-25-2020 | 06:58 PM
#53
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 511
Likes: 0
I love it how some here say it happens every 8 to 10 years. From 2001 to 2008 is 7 years. From 2008 to 2020 is 12 years. Let’s see, 2001 minus 10 years is 1991. Don’t recall, what happened then? 1991 minus 10 years would be 1981. What happened then? Refresh my memory.
2001 was the twin towers being destroyed, many people did not fly. 2008 was the mortgage bubble (lying about income to get mortgages with no proof of income) and Mark to market causing a recession. Also the flying mandatory retirement went up from 60 to 65. The major airlines had a major consolidation that contributed to the lost decade. Don’t see those two things happening again. 2020 was the worst plague in a century, except for the Asian flu in 1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I forget, did we have across the board pilot furloughs in those years?
Of course there will be black swan events in the future, but I reject the idea they occur every 8 to 10 years, as though they are related.
2001 was the twin towers being destroyed, many people did not fly. 2008 was the mortgage bubble (lying about income to get mortgages with no proof of income) and Mark to market causing a recession. Also the flying mandatory retirement went up from 60 to 65. The major airlines had a major consolidation that contributed to the lost decade. Don’t see those two things happening again. 2020 was the worst plague in a century, except for the Asian flu in 1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I forget, did we have across the board pilot furloughs in those years?
Of course there will be black swan events in the future, but I reject the idea they occur every 8 to 10 years, as though they are related.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States
12-25-2020 | 07:32 PM
#54
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 2,035
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Don't forget Carl Icahn, between the two of them they managed to decimate the entire airline industry for over a decade. Huge pay and benefit cuts, pension losses, and bankruptcy, merger, or complete shutdowns for all.
12-26-2020 | 06:28 AM
#55
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
12-26-2020 | 06:32 AM
#56
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
Carl Icahn was not a single incident. He was doing it to TWA from 1985-2001. That is a 16 year period, not just a single year. Ask me how I know.
12-26-2020 | 12:05 PM
#58
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 874
Likes: 45
I love it how some here say it happens every 8 to 10 years. From 2001 to 2008 is 7 years. From 2008 to 2020 is 12 years. Let’s see, 2001 minus 10 years is 1991. Don’t recall, what happened then? 1991 minus 10 years would be 1981. What happened then? Refresh my memory.
2001 was the twin towers being destroyed, many people did not fly. 2008 was the mortgage bubble (lying about income to get mortgages with no proof of income) and Mark to market causing a recession. Also the flying mandatory retirement went up from 60 to 65. The major airlines had a major consolidation that contributed to the lost decade. Don’t see those two things happening again. 2020 was the worst plague in a century, except for the Asian flu in 1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I forget, did we have across the board pilot furloughs in those years?
Of course there will be black swan events in the future, but I reject the idea they occur every 8 to 10 years, as though they are related.
2001 was the twin towers being destroyed, many people did not fly. 2008 was the mortgage bubble (lying about income to get mortgages with no proof of income) and Mark to market causing a recession. Also the flying mandatory retirement went up from 60 to 65. The major airlines had a major consolidation that contributed to the lost decade. Don’t see those two things happening again. 2020 was the worst plague in a century, except for the Asian flu in 1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I forget, did we have across the board pilot furloughs in those years?
Of course there will be black swan events in the future, but I reject the idea they occur every 8 to 10 years, as though they are related.
https://images.app.goo.gl/ExWFQ9SkwRMd7jJd7
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/world-airline-industry-in-cyclical-upswing---but-in-search-of-usd125-billion-annually-in-financing-158633
The downswings in the early 80's and 90's were mostly deregulation ripple affects with airline bankruptcies, mergers, and acquisitions. There was major labor strife during that time as well as multiple strikes.
12-26-2020 | 12:49 PM
#59
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,682
Likes: 167
......... So the moral of the story is that the airline industry is very volatile with very large ups and downs. The previous generation had seasonal furloughs as the norm, a fuel embargo, deregulation, bankruptcies, recessions, mergers, and liquidations. We have seen 9/11, furloughs, bankruptcies, recessions, mergers, liquidations, and now we are dealing with COVID. It has always been a wild ride, and it always will. There will never be any guarantees, other than the guarantee that you stand no chance of making it if you aren’t in the game. If you need stability, aviation probably isn’t a good fit.
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