Just a couple of thoughts.

If the plan is to have at least 20 jets + however many more that can be staffed, which according to some folks, would be quite a few more jets than just the 20, the net result would be an increase in total airframes even when taking into account some (and eventually all) of the dashs being parked.

Now, I haven't busted out my cocktail napkin for some bar-room math, but when adding attrition from flows, people being hired elsewhere, early/normal retirements, etc, the current hiring rates seem a bit, shall we say, challenged, to meet growth + attrition demands.

With all that said, I can only think to myself that it is only a matter of time until AAG bites the bullet to meet or exceed the new payscales of most of the other regionals out there. 12 months ago $29/hr was pretty competitive for 1st year FO, especially for a sub-50 seat turboprop. Today? Not so much.

Anecdotally, nearly every fellow new hire I've spoken with has said that the flow was a big part, if not main reason, to come to PDT. That's all well and good, but it's only part of the equation.

Though in a strange twist of irony, the smaller classes seem to be somewhat of a blessing, as the sim/soe capacity is already maxed out, although the sim waits seem to finally be coming down some.

 

Doesn't the flow turn off after 10 years from date of the CBA signing. Is that right ? 9 years left at 36/year

 

Technically yes, but I'd be extremely extremely surprised if the flow doesn't become AAs bread and butter of meeting future staffing needs. Really, it already is

 

Its not staying at 36....it goes up by X number of pilots above base of 350...475=4...600=5... Etc

 

Exactly. They aren't in panic mode at all yet. If they do get to that point we are fortunate to have the deep pockets of AA available. Watch and see...

 

They "have to take them" until the company decides to up and ignore the contract because of staffing.

To quote others on these boards, "they aren't going to flow themselves out of existence."

 

Company could but that would stop anyone from coming and would cause mass exodus. The flow is their recruiting tool. It won't stop ANYTIME soon.

 

Until it does and someone gets left holding the bag.

 

Billyho, I like your optimisum but it may say they have to make up flow at the end of the year but what happens when there isn't spots available?

So in the last 2 months you think magically that 15-20 people (Lets just say) will go from PDT as well as all the make ups that are prob going to have to happen at PSA and ENY. I like to say that I am wrong but knowing what has been going on at all of the WO's I doubt very much that will actually happen.

I think that the 1st wrench will be how many recalls come back starting this month at AA.

 

They've already announced that pretty much all the classes for most of the year will be Flows/Recalls with a few lucky OTS hires from the pool. Many people in the Pool already received emails stating that they won't probably get a class till close to next winter.

Nothing at a regional level is a certain, but I think its pretty safe to say the flow will continue to go on.