Not just the mins, both pilots need to have an ATP.

 

You missed my point completely. My point is that in the future, there will not be enough GA work (piston twin gigs, instructing, air ambulance, box hauling, charter, whatever) to adequately feed 121 ops with a sufficient number of pilots with ATP mins. This is not a sustainable system...hell, even during the hiring boom of the last few years, that wouldn't have worked....there just weren't enough pilots with ATP mins to fill entry level spots at regional carriers. That's why there were so many people getting hired with 250 hours and sometimes even less.

Changes to certification will take place, you're correct about that, but it won't be in the direction that you'd like it to be.....I think the term "frozen ATPL" will become part of the American flight training vocabulary within the next ten years.

I think that the fATPL is much more likely to come along than an impossible requirement for ATP mins.

 

Okay, here's the problem... I wouldnt "pay out of pocket" to have an ATP just to get hired at a regional making 23k a year. I have well above ATP mins and I dont agree with this. I do agree with having 1500tt as the norm just to get a call back for an interview.
I think the focus needs to be on fatigue, crew rest quarters and reasonable commute limitations ie, if you're commuting from coast to coast you must be at your domicile 24hrs in advance. This is where proper crew rest quarters can and should be used. I've yet to be in a crew room where at least one pilot wasn't sleeping on a couch. Just my .02

 

We shall see, but I would be glad if there are less qualified individuals coming to work for my company, and all others for that matter. Less supply would certainly drive demand, and the pay issue would almost resolve itself. In order for that to happen there has to be a better system of qualifying pilots, starting with the elimination of pilot factories. We'll see what happens, either way it won't happen soon, it will take a few years to implement any changes.

 

It's supply and demand, nothing to do with the FAA. There's virtually nothing out there right now as far as airlines hiring. Plus the only one that has raised their mins is Gojet and they have 10000 hour applicants anyways so it doesn't matter.

 

Think a little bit ahead, people.

If the mins are arbitrarily raised to ATP minimums, then you will see an industry-wide understaffing within the next 5-10 years. G.A. is not producing enough pilots and the military folks aren't leaving. If they are, they are not going to a regional.

1. They won't change it. An ATP is not necessary to perform the job of FO successfully.
2. The minimums will raise until the staffing levels get low, and then you'll see them drop right back down.
3. Unless GA begins to produce pilots again, the minimums will go lower and lower, until you are dealing with Multi-Crew. This is especially true in the event of user fees.

 

Both would require a change in regs. The question is which way the change will go.

 

Prediction: Congress does holds hearing, does nothing.

 

Let's be honest. Unfortunately as we've seen time and time and time again, nothing will change. This crap has gone on hundreds of time. Lawmakers swearing in-depth review of an incident, quality investigators publishing a report, a top 10 list of changes that need to be made immediately and... ... ... ...

nothing.

Just look how long pilot fatigue and scheduling practices has been on the top 10 list of the NTSB. And we've seen comprehensive changes from the FAA when???

 

Guys, there are PLENTY of pilots out there who hold an ATP (or have the minimums) but didn't apply to work at a regional airline because the compensation wasn't there. There was never a shortage of pilots to fly for the regional airlines - only a shortage of pilots willing to work for regional airline lifestyle and pay.

If the minimums for flying Part 121 include having an ATP certificate (or at least ATP minimums) then the price for recruiting that talent will go up as well (at least to family-sustainable levels for FOs) and an entire world of pilots who would never have considered flying for a regional making 20-25k a year will be available.

I do agree with sqwkvfr though; the previous generation's career path through piston cargo 135 is shrinking going away due to Check 21 legislation, and the replacement of light twins with SE turbines like Caravans and TBMs. There are still jobs out there to be had for companies like Flight Express and Central Air Southwest...just substantially fewer of them due to smaller companies and substantially less attrition.

The raising of minimums thing is a stupid reactionary move and a only smokescreen at that, especially given that the Colgan FO had ATP minimums...just not the certificate.