You apparently have no idea what you're talking about. AA has announced previously that the FTDT change alone will require an additional 4,000 pilots based upon our current contract and utilization.
Personally, I think the number is a bit too high, but it is easilly 2,000 more required. That alone will eat halfway into Eagle's list.

Our MANDATORY retirements will average 300-700 per year (lower now & larger later) and this does not include those who will punch out prior to losing too much in their funds.

Things will begin moving here fairly fast, fairly soon. My best guess would be all Eagle guys getting the offer within the next 5 years, and 6 at most.... with the first 240 to flow this Nov/Dec and the 824 to start thereafter...

If I were starting out, it's where I would pick. A guaranteed faster upgrade than places with no movement to their mainline, which means faster TPIC and a faster path to any major... with the fallback plan of simply enjoying being a fairly well paid RJ Captain until AA calls.

 

I agree with the above. Just because you have a "number" at AA doesn't mean that you shouldn't apply to other majors. I plan on sending my resume to AA as soon as the window opens. There are many current Eagle captains that are planning the same.

If you botch in interview, you still have the walk on option later on down the road.

Even if our new company shrinks, there will still be movement, which is a lot better than most regionals right now. In the meantime, they do treat us fairly well.

 

Worst case scenario for junior guys is still pretty good:

1. It keeps things at the top moving
2. It is a good back up plan

 

Does anyone have any information regarding how many pilots have been hired at Eagle this year and how many remaining they intend to hire?

 

I don't have the exact number, but they have hired over 300 this year and plan on classes through dec for a total of about 600 for the year. Disclaimer: subject to change.

 

They now want 670 for this year, and now plan to continue hiring into 2012. Of course that's what the "plan"

I don't think they will hit their goal for this year

 

Your comment would have been great without your first sentence thrown in, but anyway... You are not calculating the fact that Eagle only sends 50% thru the 824 then it is only 35% up to a maximum of 25 per month. I still think that a 2011 hire will be luck to get the AA call inside of 10years. I like your optimism though and wish for it to become reality. One can only wait and see.

 

Just looking at the next 5 years, there's only scheduled to be about 800 retirements, but I'm sure more then that will leave. A new contract with provisions allowing AA pilots to be scheduled to fly more will subtract from the need to hire more rather than less.

Looks like the bottom Eagle guys who still have AA numbers will be all over a year from now and then the pilots part of the 824 arbitration come over at 50% of the class I believe, not to exceed 20/month. I'd think AA could keep a steady pace of classes at 35/40 month comprising new-hires, returning recall pilots and some AE guys of the next group, but I'd think that unless AA really ramps up the class size, less then 20 AE pilots per month would be coming aboard over the next 5 years and that it would take about that long to get through the 824 group.

Then it goes to 35% class for the new group of AE pilots starting about 2016 or so and who knows how long it will take to go down that list ?

It's a good deal I guess if it works as planned, but then again the original Letter flowthrough which had more provisions and protections resulted in only about 140 AE pilots in the first 10 years, so I'm not convinced this will work out as planned for AE pilots.

 

ATR's will likely be the first ones to be parked. NO NEW replacements.

 

The # we got today from our MEC was approximately 500 pilots..