That's true. A judge says they go, so its a deal and in writing. My point is that I wanna see
in writing first that we WILL be guaranteed a position signed by the APA and AA before I would call it a flow.

You mean like the one for the current guys with numbers, the ones that got numbers over 10 years ago! You know we will probably not see that, there is no incentive for them to offer that. AMR wants to outsource flying not keep it in house. They rather hire guys at AA from other places so they don't have to train a replacement. But right now they want to move senior guys over but once we lower our pilot seniority average and it becomes harder to find replacement it will be interesting what they will do.

That's exactly what I mean. I don't like to subjective and tell folks how to think, but I hope folks aren't coming here because of the"flow" to AA. To me, it's an empty promise until it's in writing. There are/will be other companies out there besides us. Will be glad to have you, but don't get your hopes up for AA.

The AA flow is a long shot and could take year before the first group of pilots outside of the 824 get to go. BK, at AA could happen. The Eagle spin off (I've had my opinion that it might not happen) and it actually might not happen. Everything has always been about pilot contracts. The Eagle spin off has as much to do with the AA pilot contracts. For those that are not at Eagle yet, right after AMR announced the Eagle spin off they approached the pilots and are trying to extend our industry average contract for the next decade. Our contract becomes amendable in 2013 and there is allot of uncertainty on the supply and demand of pilots at that time, management understands that we (pilots) will probably have leverage and will demand a better contract. The AA contract controls what happens at Eagle with regards to SCOPE. The AA SCOPE is so tight that AMR wouldn't gain anything by outsourcing. AA has said it will not give in on SCOPE (we will see what the end result is). Movement on AE, We have projected 1,000 Pilots going to AA in the first 1,600 pilots they hire. Something drastic would have to happen for this to be affected. That is 2/3 of captains at AE. This should create movement. AE is being proactive (late but they are doing it) they are hiring like crazy and have stopped vacancy bids. They have stopped vacancy bids because of the new contract extension they are trying to signed that would reduce training events (jumping from aircraft to aircraft). AE lost around 250 captains to AE in the last year but have hired over 2 times that amount of FO, and are continuing to do hire. Make no mistake is in the best interest go the company to send as many pilot to AA as possible. Please realize that we have a 4.5 year upgrade time, but most captains that are under 10 years of seniority are sitting on reserve (very senior pilot group). We should see allot of movement coming up, we could see parking of aircraft and we could see flying outsourced. We will know more when the AA pilot contract is signed.

Good points, but also remember the other variable: Merger. If AA merges with any other airline then everything as we know it (contracts, flow throughs, etc..) goes right out the window.

US Air has been desperate to merge with one of the "big Four" for years now. The only one left on it's own is AA..and with BK looming a merger is not out of the question. Latest I saw on the news is that the CEO of US Air has in fact been in contact with AMR regarding just such a thing.

Not only that, But you can kiss Eagle goodbye if that happens.

I had a whole month off after I finished my checkride till my loft sim. It's not a shortage of instructors it's sim blocks that are open and when people unsat, it throws the schedule out of whack.

Care to provide a link to the news story which states the CEO of US Air has contact AMR? I've seen speculative stories, but none stating Parker has contacted AMR.

Also MW was telling me it has a lot to do with the number of FOs to Captains. They want to do LOFT with Captains and FOs and while there are a number of FOs going through the pipe, the number of captains isn't too high. I also heard unfortunately that a lot of captains have failed their type rides

I hope it doesn't take that long. I still have to do my checkride!! I don't want to forget everything.