I honestly think the company already knows...why else are they hiring the quantities they are?

I can tell you right now the ATR is overstaffed to the limit.

Also..it looks like there are an additional 87 upgrades in this bid taking out the "no backfills"...meaning eagle's upgrade (based on the most senior guy i see on the final awards for nov) an august or september 05 hire..only about 30 more and we're into 06 for upgrades

That's good!!! meaning that by 2013 to 2015 the 2010 new hires can be up in CA positions. :D

So ATRs are overstaffed? So this class can be all jet?

I believe the Nov 8 class was all jet (11 NFC 12 OFE)

I hope that the 2010s can upgrade in 3 years, but I wouldnt bet the farm on it :) Things are dropping relatively quickly because we had a hiring gap from 2001-2004, and we had a slow year of hiring in 2005. There are a ton of 2006 DOHs (around 300 on the seniority list) so that will be a big chunk of pilots to go through for upgrades. I would be prepared for at least 6yrs in the right seat if hired today. Who knows what will actually happen though!

Waaay too many variables to guess upgrade times for new hires. It could be anywhere between 3 years and never.

If the majors start hiring (like US Air just announced), then we could really some significant movement.

That's what I'm getting based on the 3 to 5 years. Is now that just a hundreds of CAs going to AA and there's a lot of movement. How it will be when the others majors starts to hire???

There will be a lot of those new CA that will have more than 1 year flying as CA so they probably try to move. Also the senior FO will try to move on to the majors. Making us, "today" new hires, to be the seniors or new hired CA, and the ones that get hired next year as a line holder FOs.

Just my thought. That's why you should get in the boat ASAP :D

Displacements plus the No Backfills, I see about 50something net upgrades.Not as many as you think.

Hard to tell. Once this VAC bid closes,will see how many ATR drivers transfer to the jets.

I took all the captain vacancies and subtracted the captain slots that they're not backfilling....in my mind that tells you how many new upgrades they need..am i doing that wrong? How'd you get 50?

Consider Base transfers as well.That takes Vacancies available. OCE to MCE for example.